Hibbs Brief
Hibbs Institute for Business & Economic Research
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year: Many Retail Stores May Concur
By Manuel Reyes and Cecilia Cuellar
1
The National Retail Federation winter holidays include Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and Kwanzaa.
2
National Retail Federation (NRF) annually forecast the winter holiday retail sales. The NRF’s forecast excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
https://nrf.com/research-insights/holiday-data-and-trends/winter-holidays
Figure 1. U.S. Winter Holiday Retail Sales, 2002 to 2022 (in billions of U.S. dollars)
Source: U.S. Census and National Retail Federation.
Notes: Non-seasonally adjusted retail sales. Winter holiday sales correspond to November and December.
In this issue of the Hibbs Brief, we discuss retail sales during
the holiday season in the U.S., and we estimate its economic
impact on the Tyler Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).
It is the time of the year when the holiday spirit is in our hearts.
Even during the challenging times that we experienced over
the past several months with intense economic diculties,
many of us are ready to celebrate the holiday season. We
may be planning to hang decorations, exchange gifts, buy
Christmas trees and have dinners with our loved ones.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), the world’s
largest retail trade association, nine out of ten individuals (91%)
are planning to purchase something during this year’s winter
holiday celebration in the U.S.
1
Thus, besides the joy related to
the season, the consumption of goods (retail sales) associated
with the holidays generates considerable gins in the ntionl
economy (nd locl economies in prticulr) during the last
two months of the year.
Winter holiday retail sales are a significant component of
annual retail sales. This year, winter holiday retail sales are
forecasted to increase between 6% and 8% over the past year
($943–$960 billion in 2022).
2
Historically, holiday retail sales
have increased almost every year during the last two decades,
66% since 2002 (Figure 1).
Figure 2. Tyler MSA Winter Holiday Retail Sales, 2019 to 2022 (in thousands of U.S. dollars)
Source: The Hibbs Institute estimates use data provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Note: Winter holiday retail sales correspond to November and December. The Hibbs Institute used monthly state retail sales (non-seasonally adjusted) and year-to-year growth
rate for Texas to estimate monthly retail sales for Tyler MSA.
Figure 3. Shares of Winter Holiday Retail Sales in Tyler MSA (in thousands of U.S. dollars)
Source: The Hibbs Institute estimates use data provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and JobsEQ by Chmura Economics.
Notes: Estimates were conducted using five-digit NAICS codes for (44-45) Retail Sales in Tyler MSA.
3
The Hibbs Institute calculated the Tyler MSA winter holiday retail sales using monthly state retail sales data provided by the U.S. Census and
the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
4
The 2022 forecast was conducted by the Hibbs Institute assuming the national growth estimate provided by the National Retail Federation (NRF)
and applied to the Tyler MSA gures.
In the Tyler MSA, winter holiday retail sales have increased
consistently during the past few years. Even in 2020,
when the pandemic had its strongest negative impact on
consumption, winter holiday retail sales in Tyler showed a
moderate growth. In 2021, winter holiday retail sales were
$243 million, which represents an increase of about 20%
from the previous year.
3
This year, winter holiday retail sales
are expected to total about $260 million in Tyler
4
(Figure 2).
Additionally, Figure 3 shows the breakdown of winter holiday
retail sales in 2021, by subcategory; in other words, it shows
what type of items are consumed the most in Tyler. The largest
subcategory is General Merchandise (including jewelry, home
furnishing and toys) with $43 million, or 18%, of total retail
expenses. This is followed by Food and Beverages with $21
million (9%), Clothing and Accessories with $19 million (8%)
and Miscellaneous Stores (including seasonal and holiday
decorations) with $15.2 million (6%).
Hibbs Brief: The Most Wonderful Time of the Year: Many Retail Stores May Concur
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5
The Hibbs Institute researchers chose to use IMPLAN V6 model to conduct their estimates. IMPLAN is widely accepted and used extensively by numerous (several thousand)
public and private organizations.
6
The direct eect refers to the initial change in demand resulting from new or current expenditures or employment. I-O multipliers are then used to generate changes in other re-
gional economic sectors. Indirect eects represent all changes in a regional industry activity, such as an increase in production and employment, that result from the direct eect
(the eects related to suppliers). Finally, the induced eects measure the impact of household spending within a region due to changes in labor income or compensation received
by workers and business proprietors for both the directly and indirectly impacted regional industries. The sum of these three eects represents the total impact.
Finally, the Hibbs Institute has conducted an economic impact
analysis regarding the winter holiday retail sales in Tyler.
These estimates include the dollar output and employment
generated by the calculated expenses associated with retail
consumption during this year’s holiday season (November
and December). For this purpose, we employed some ocial
figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the
U.S. Census Bureau (USCB), and subsector estimates, provided
by Chmura Economics, as the base of our analysis.
The forecasted winter holiday retail sales ($260.1 million)
represent the direct eect and should support about 2,676
jobs in the local economy. These figures were used in a model
to estimate their indirect and induced eects in the Tyler
economy.
5
The resulting economic benefits are substantial.
The impact of local suppliers related to retail stores in the
community (indirect eect) would generate $32.0 million and
183 jobs. The impact of all employees’ income (induced eect),
once spent in the locality, would generate $30.2 million and
195 jobs.
6
In summary, we estimated that winter holiday retail sales in the
Tyler MSA supports 3,054 jobs (2,676 direct, 183 indirect and
195 induced) and accounts for $322.4 million ($260.1 direct,
$32.0 indirect and $30.2 induced). Overall, retail sales during
winter holidays constitute a very important economic driver
for Tyler’s economy.
The Hibbs Institute wishes our readers very nice and peaceful
holidays. Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!