Modernizing
the Postal
Money Order
RARC Report
Report Number
RARC-WP-16-007
April 4, 2016
Cover
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
Executive
Summary
The Post Ofce Department introduced money orders during
the Civil War as a safe way for Union soldiers to send money
home to their families. A century-and-a-half later, postal money
orders remain essential to the lives of millions of Americans
who use them to make $21 billion worth of payments annually.
Money orders are essentially prepaid checks. But in the wake
of alternatives from other providers and broad shifts toward
electronic forms of payment, the number of postal money orders
sold has fallen by 60 percent from their peak in 2000. Meanwhile,
other providers of money orders appear to be faring better.
Between 2011 and 2013, the number of non-postal money orders
actually increased slightly, while postal money order volumes
declined by 11 percent.
To better meet the needs of those who purchase money orders
and the businesses that accept them as a form of payment —
saving them time and money — postal money orders could
be modernized. The Postal Service also would benet from
a rejuvenated money order business, which is strategically
important on many levels.
First, money orders are a key driver of foot trafc to post ofces,
with one in 10 retail revenue transactions nationally containing a
money order. Among the 1,000 locations with the highest money
order volume, a quarter of transactions include a money order.
In addition, money orders are one of the Postal Service’s more
protable products, with an average prot margin of 35 percent.
Highlights
Postal money orders were introduced in 1864
as a safe way for soldiers and others to send
payments over long distances.
Post ofces sold $21 billion worth of money
orders in scal year 2015, generating
$159 million in revenue.
Nationally, one in 10 postal retail revenue
transactions include a money order.
In the wake of alternatives from other providers
and broad shifts toward electronic forms of
payment, money order sales have plunged
60 percent from their peak in 2000.
About 1,200 high volume post ofces grew
money order sales by at least 10 percent in the
past 3 years, showing that improving sales is
achievable.
Selling money orders through digital channels
could have signicant benets for money order
customers.
The Postal Service could assign a strategic
manager to help modernize and stabilize this
important product.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
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Because customers often mail them, money orders also
potentially generate tens of millions of dollars in annual postage
revenue for the Postal Service. Furthermore, there is a lag
between the time when a money order is purchased and when
it is redeemed. These funds give the Postal Service signicant
cash ow 
exibility. As the postal money order business shrinks,
all of these benets decline with it.
There is good reason to think that the Postal Service could
improve upon its money order business. While overall sales
declines paint a stark picture, a closer examination reveals that
the top 25 percent of post ofces for money orders — which
account for 77 percent of all money order fees — had stable
sales over the past 3 years, with sales dipping just 1 percent.
Among these high volume locations, about 1,200 actually grew
their money order sales by at least 10 percent — demonstrating
that increasing money order sales is achievable. But to get
there, money orders could benet from a product manager
to share best practices and focus on strategic growth —
something the business now lacks.
The U.S. Postal Service Ofce of Inspector General (OIG) has
identied some retail best practices that the Postal Service
could follow, particularly at high volume money order locations.
It also could begin selling paper money orders through digital
channels, such as usps.com and the USPS Mobile app. This
innovation, which would likely not require regulatory approval,
could save users a signicant amount of time. Additionally,
money orders sold through digital channels and printed at a
central facility could be more protable and generate more mail
volume than money orders sold at post ofces.
To truly bring the product into the digital age, the Postal Service
also could introduce a fully-electronic money order, as many
foreign posts have done. Customers could use such a product
to pay bills, make person-to-person payments, or make
ecommerce purchases. In addition, electronic money orders
could have signicant appeal for online merchants, reducing
their payment processing costs. While this innovation would
likely be allowable under current law, it would require Postal
Regulatory Commission approval.
While postal money order sales are in decline, there is an
opportunity to alter that trend. Postal money orders have some
unique advantages to customers such as security, availability,
and ease of redemption. The Postal Service could make
a number of strategic enhancements to build upon these
strengths. In addition, it could modernize both the way it sells
money orders and the money order product itself, which could
attract the next generation of customers. Given the pace of
current declines, time is of the essence. If the Postal Service
waits to take action to stabilize and modernize this important
product, fewer money order users and recipients will be left to
benet from those changes.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
Table of Contents
Executive Summary......................................................................................1
Observations ................................................................................................5
Introduction ..............................................................................................5
Money Orders Bring Many Benets .......................................................5
Money Orders Are a Key Driver of Retail Foot Trafc ........................6
Money Orders Have Anti-Fraud Security Features ...........................6
The Decline in Money Order Sales Has Been Uneven Across
the Network .............................................................................................7
There Are Other Providers of Money Orders ...........................................8
Many View Postal Money Orders as a Premium Product ...............10
Most Payments Are Going Electronic. Money Orders Could Too. ... 11
A Look at Money Order Users ...............................................................12
Heavy Users Comprise Three-Fourths of Postal Money
Order Purchases ..............................................................................12
Money Order Users Are Demographically Diverse ..........................13
Best Practices for Money Order Sales ..................................................15
A Stand-Out Post Ofce: Frederick Douglass Station ......................15
Suggestions for Improving Service and Enhancing Revenue ...............16
Assign a National Product Manager to Strategically Guide the
Money Order Business .....................................................................16
Consider Potential Modernizations for Money Orders .....................16
Optimize the Retail Experience at High Volume Money
Order Ofces ....................................................................................18
Communicate the Existence of Postal Money Orders as Well
as the Advantages of Postal Money Orders and
Any Product Changes ......................................................................19
Perhaps Pursue Money Order Discount Agreements With
Prepaid Card Companies .................................................................19
Ramp up Additional Alternative Financial Services Offerings ..........19
Conclusion .............................................................................................20
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
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Table of Contents
Management’s Comments ....................................................................20
Evaluation of Management’s Comments ...............................................20
Appendices .................................................................................................22
Appendix A: Statistical Methodology for Underperforming
Post Ofce Analysis ...............................................................................23
Appendix B: Estimating the Postal Service’s Share of
Money Orders Sold ..............................................................................25
Appendix C: A Closer Look at Money Order Users ...............................27
Appendix D: Financial Impact of Active Management and
Digital Channels for Paper Money Orders .............................................31
Appendix E: Management’s Comments ................................................37
Contact Information ....................................................................................39
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
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Observations
Introduction
Until the mid-19th century, sending money through the mail was a risky proposition. Each year, thieves stole as much as
$1 million in cash from the mail — some of it from Union soldiers ghting in the Civil War.
1
In 1864, the United States government
came up with a solution: postal money orders. For a nominal fee, Americans could purchase a money order from their local post
ofce and use it as a guaranteed payment they could send safely through the mail. The product caught on. By 1890, the total
value of postal money orders issued topped $110 million a year ($2.9 billion in today’s dollars).
2
More than a century later, millions
of American families still rely on postal money orders as a convenient, reliable way to pay their bills, purchasing about $21 billion in
face value per year.
3
Money orders also drive signicant foot trafc to post ofces, are frequently mailed, and are one of the
U.S. Postal Service’s more protable products.
But the money order business is in trouble. In the wake of alternatives from other
providers and broad shifts toward electronic forms of payment, the number of
postal money orders sold each year has plunged from 233 million in 2000 to
93 million in 2015 — a 60 percent drop. To put that into perspective, First-Class
Mail has fallen 39 percent over the same period. When it comes to the money
order business, the Postal Service appears to prioritize managing the day-to-day
operations over strategizing about how to improve or build upon it. This white
paper is an attempt to encourage and aid such strategic discussions, which we
believe could lead to signicant benets for the millions of Americans who use
money orders, many of them on a regular basis, and for the Postal Service itself.
Money Orders Bring Many Benets
Money orders are among the Postal Service’s more protable products.
They brought in $159 million in revenue and $54 million in prot (known as
“contribution” in postal terms) during scal year (FY) 2015.
4
Over the past 3
years, it has been the fth most protable among postal products that generate
at least $100 million in revenue, as shown in Figure 1. Money orders also are
often sent through the mail, potentially generating tens of millions in additional
postage revenue.
5
The $600 million to $700 million outstanding balance of money orders that have been purchased, but not yet
redeemed, also gives the Postal Service signicant cash ow exibility — particularly during these times of tight budgets.
6
The
Postal Service invests those funds, generating $2 million in interest income, known as “oat,” in FY 2015.
7
1 National Postal Museum, Development and Operation of the Domestic Money Order System, by Terence M. Hines and Thomas Velk, 2011, http://postalmuseum.si.edu/
Symposium2011/papers/Hines_velk_2011_stamps.pdf, pp. 2-4.
2 Ibid.
3 There were $21 billion in face value money orders sold in scal year (FY) 2015.
4 Revenue gure comes from Postal Service’s Market Dominant Billing Determinants, Special Services, http://www.prc.gov/dockets/document/94395. Cost information
comes from the Postal Service Public Cost and Revenue Analysis report, http://www.prc.gov/dockets/document/94410. Prot, or “contribution,” is the difference between
revenue and costs for a given product. A portion of the revenue from money orders comes from “escheatment,” which is the face value of money orders that have gone
unredeemed for 2 years — a policy that is explained here: U.S. Postal Service Ofce of Inspector General, Controls to Detect Money Order Fraud, Report No.
DP-AR-13-002, February 7, 2013, https://www.uspsoig.gov/sites/default/les/document-library-les/2015/dp-ar-13-002.pdf, p. 9.
5 The Postal Service’s Household Diary study names money orders as one of the most common First Class Mail pieces, but does not give gures. In OIG interviews with
50 postal money order users, 68 percent said they mail some or all of the money orders they buy. U.S. Postal Service, The Household Diary Study: Mail Use & Attitudes
in FY 2014, August 20, 2015, http://www.prc.gov/docs/93/93171/2014%20USPS%20HDS%20Annual%20Report_Final_V3.pdf, p. 5.
6 This averaged $666 million in FY 2015. U.S. Postal Service, “USPS-FY15-28 - FY 2015 Special Cost Studies Workpapers - Special Services (Public Portion),” Postal
Regulatory Commission Docket No. ACR2015, December 29, 2015, http://www.prc.gov/dockets/document/94343.
7 Ibid.
The Post Ofce Department
introduced money orders in
1864 as a safe way to send
payments over long distances.
Figure 1: Money Order Protability
MONEY ORDERS EARN STRONG PROFITS
Among products with at least $100 million in revenue,
money orders are among the more profitable. If
postage from mailed money orders and the “float”
earned by investing the funds from outstanding money
orders were included, profits would be even higher.
†
Cost coverage is revenue as a percentage of attributable costs.
*Average excludes 2013, which was unavailable.
Source: U.S. Postal Service Cost and Revenue Analysis reports.
Average cost coverage in fiscal years 2013-2015
†
204%
165%
162%
157%
132%
131%
130%
123%
106%
76%
First-Class Mail
Priority Mail Express
Competitive International*
Standard Mail
Money Orders
Certified Mail
Ground
Priority Mail
First Class Packages
Package Services
Periodicals
220%
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Money Orders Are a Key Driver of Retail Foot Trafc
Money orders also are one of the biggest drivers of foot trafc to post ofces, where 10 percent of all revenue transactions in
FY 2015 included a money order.
8
Among the 1,000 locations with the highest money order volume, a quarter of transactions
included a money order. In some high volume ofces, money orders were present in more than half of all transactions. On top
of that, money order customers often buy additional items when they come to the post ofce. Nearly half of all money order
transactions in 2015 — 28 million in total — also included other postal products.
9
In addition, money order retail sales have been
relatively more stable than that of other retail products. Overall post ofce walk-in revenue declined 40 percent faster during the
past 3 years than money order fee revenue.
10
All of this suggests that money orders could be strategically important to the success
of the Postal Service’s retail network.
Money Orders Have Anti-Fraud Security
Features
Postal money orders are prepaid and come with
strong security features that make them difcult
to counterfeit, as shown in Figure 2. The color
gradient, watermark, and holographic strip all
work to minimize fraud. Another advantage for
the Postal Service in this arena is its two law
enforcement arms: the Postal Inspection Service,
which investigates external crimes, and the Ofce
of Inspector General (OIG), which investigates
misdeeds by postal employees. Internal fraud
tends to happen at small post ofces that lack
automated point-of-sale terminals. Among cases
the OIG has closed over the past 5 years, these
scams resulted in an average of about
$1 million per year in theft, though the
Postal Service recovers the vast majority of that
money.
11
The losses due to fraud are minuscule
relative to the billions of dollars that ow through
postal money orders every year. This is a sign of
the effectiveness of fraud mitigation strategies and
of a well-functioning product.
8 OIG analysis of 2015 data from the Postal Service Retail Data Mart. This is for the approximately 18,000 post ofces that have POS or RSS-type point-of-sale terminals,
which account for 94 percent of all post ofce walk-in revenue. Other locations use non-computerized terminals that do not collect transaction-level data.
9 Ibid. Many customers buy multiple money orders per transaction.
10 OIG analysis of data from the Postal Service Accounting Data Mart.
11 Based on interview of OIG nancial fraud investigators.
Nationally, one in 10 retail
revenue transactions include
money orders, which are a key
driver of foot trafc to
post ofces.
Figure 2: Postal Money Orders’ Security Features
POSTAL MONEY ORDERS’ SECURITY FEATURES
Postal money orders are printed on textured, currency-like paper and
packed with security features that make them difficult to counterfeit.
COLOR GRADIENTS
BEN FRANKLIN
WATERMARK
U.S. MAIL EAGLE EMBLEM
HOLOGRAPHIC
STRIP
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The Decline in Money Order Sales Has Been
Uneven Across the Network
As Figure 3 illustrates, overall postal money order use
has plunged over the past decade and a half. Much of this
reects the broad shift away from checks and money orders
toward electronic forms of payment, particularly for bills and
ecommerce.
12
Money order revenue has fallen at about half the
rate as the number of money orders sold, thanks to growth in
the average size of money orders purchased and modest
price increases.
13
While the overall decline paints a dismal picture, a closer
examination reveals a more nuanced portrait. Dividing post
ofces into quartiles based on money order fee revenue shows
that the top quartile — which accounts for 77 percent of all
money order fees — saw stable sales between 2012 and 2015
with money order fee revenue falling just 1 percent.
14
Among
these high volume locations, about 1,200 post ofces actually
grew their money order sales by at least 10 percent. At the
same time, post ofces in the two lowest quartiles — which
accounted for just 6 percent of money order fees — saw sales
dive by 17 percent and 32 percent respectively over the same
period, as is illustrated in Figure 4.
In an effort to pin down the reasons for the stark differences in
the trajectory of money order sales, the OIG examined three external factors that help predict money order sales at a given post
ofce: population, economic conditions, and the general level of education in the surrounding area.
15
The OIG also controlled for
two internal factors: post ofce walk-in revenue and whether the location was a part of the Post Ofce Structure Plan, or POSt
Plan, an initiative to cut costs by signicantly scaling back hours at about 13,000 rural post ofces.
16
The OIG created a multiple linear regression model to examine the effects of each of these factors on money order revenue, while
controlling for the other factors. The model showed that post ofces in ZIP Codes with higher population, more poverty, and lower
education levels sold more money orders. The full methodology and ndings are in Appendix A.
This model is useful because it allowed the OIG to identify high volume post ofces with favorable conditions for money
order sales, but that do not appear to be selling as many money orders as they could. If the Postal Service aims to increase
12 Federal Reserve System, 2013 Federal Reserve Payments Study: Recent and Long-Term Payment Trends in the United States: 2003-2012, p. 7.
13 Money orders over $500 come with a higher fee, and their sales volume has declined much more slowly than that of smaller money orders. With large money orders
making up a higher proportion of money order sales, the average revenue per money order has increased.
14 The Postal Service does not retain this level of data for more than 3 years, and pre- 2012 data were no longer available at the time of the OIG’s analysis.
15 The OIG also tested the proximity to the nearest Walmart, which has emerged as a powerful player in the money order space. But this proved to be a statistically
insignicant factor in predicting the money order sales of a given post ofce.
16 On Average, POSt Plan locations saw money order fee revenue decline about seven times faster than non-POSt Plan ofces between 2012 and 2015. A brief explanation
of POSt Plan can be found at http://about.usps.com/publications/annual-reports/2012/path-our-nancial-plan.html.
About 1,200 high volume post
ofces grew their money order
sales by at least 10 percent
from 2012 to 2015.
Figure 3: Money Order Use Declining
USPS MONEY ORDER USE IN DECLINE
Postal money order use has plunged 60 percent since its peak in
2000 in the wake of alternatives from other providers and broad
shifts toward electronic forms of payment.
Source: Federal Reserve, which processes postal money order payments.
Note: The number of money orders processed is lower than the number sold.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Number of postal money orders
processed each year (millions)
Peak of 230 million in 2000
92 million in 2015
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
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money order sales, implementing best practices at these
underperforming ofces could be the low-hanging fruit, where
the opportunity for improvement is the greatest. In addition to
enhancing the customer experience, these changes also could
pay off nancially. If the Postal Service stabilized and grew
sales at just the 1,000 lowest performing locations for money
orders, it could generate $9 million in additional revenue over
5 years, compared to what projected revenues would be if
current trends continued.
17
There Are Other Providers of
Money Orders
The Postal Service sold money orders at about
31,800 postal retail locations in 2015, but there are a number
of providers of money orders beyond just the Postal Service.
While many commercial banks offer money orders, the two
largest providers are Western Union and MoneyGram, which
offer products through a massive network of some 100,000
private U.S. and Canadian retailers who act as agents.
18
Many pharmacies, convenience stores, supermarkets, big box
retailers, liquor stores, check cashers, and payday lenders are
agents for Western Union or MoneyGram, typically selling a
variety of products, including money transfers and bill pay.
The overall size of the money order market is difcult to pin
down precisely. In 2014, MoneyGram reported $54 million
in money order revenue, down 2 percent from the previous
year.
19
Western Union lumps money orders in with “other” revenue, which also includes foreign exchange and prepaid services. Its
“other” revenue was $118 million in 2014.
20
For both Western Union and MoneyGram, money orders comprise less than 4 percent
of their overall revenue.
21
17 This is a cumulative 5-year estimate. It includes money order fees and projected escheatment income. The OIG identied more than 4,000 potentially underperforming
money order post ofces.
18 Western Union has some 50,000 U.S. agents and MoneyGram has 56,000 in the United States and Canada. Securities and Exchange Commission, The Western Union
Co. Form 10-k Annual Report, February 20, 2015, http://edgar.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1365135/000136513515000008/wu-12312014x10k.htm,
p. 6 and Securities and Exchange Commission, MoneyGram International, Inc. Form 10-k Annual Report, March 3, 2015, http://edgar.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/
data/1273931/000127393115000032/mgi2014123110-k.htm, p. 7.
19 Securities and Exchange Commission, MoneyGram International, Inc. Form 10-k Annual Report, p. F-47.
20 Securities and Exchange Commission, The Western Union Co. Form 10-k Annual Report, pp. 57, 70, and 146.
21 Ibid., p. 146 and Securities and Exchange Commission, MoneyGram International, Inc. Form 10-k Annual Report, p. F-47.
Figure 4: High Volume Ofces Have Stable Sales
Percent change in average money order fees since 2012
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
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Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) survey data from 2013 estimate that 21 million households had purchased a non-bank
money order in the previous year.
22
Of those households, 30 percent said they usually buy their money orders at the post ofce.
However, among the 10 million households that had used money orders in the last 30 days — those most likely to be heavy users
— only 23 percent used postal money orders. This suggests that postal money orders have a higher usage rate among infrequent
users. In 2011, the FDIC did the same study.
23
Between 2011 and 2013, the OIG estimates that the overall number of money
orders sold fell 3 percent — though the Postal Service accounted for all of that decline. Our analysis suggests that the number of
non-postal money orders sold actually increased slightly between 2011 and 2013. Details of that analysis are in Appendix B.
While the Postal Service does not appear to sell as many money orders
as Western Union and MoneyGram, it generates at least as much
money order revenue as both of them combined.
24
Much of that has
to do with pricing. The Postal Service charges a $1.25 fee for money
orders of up to $500 and $1.65 for larger money orders up to $1,000.
25
Western Union and MoneyGram agents have some latitude in setting
money order prices, which vary widely. Based on inquiries at agents
around Washington, DC, and in rural Virginia, a money order could
cost as little as 75 cents or as much as $2.49. For example, Kash
King, a local check cashing establishment in the Washington, DC,
area, brands itself as “Home of the 75 Cent Money Orders.”
26
Many
providers beat the Postal Service on price, as Figure 5 illustrates. A
2011 Urban Institute study conducted on behalf of the Postal Regulatory
Commission notes that some private sector agents seem to use money
orders for “promotional value” —- intentionally pricing them below cost
and sometimes even issuing them for free — presumably in order to
attract customers to other more protable products.
27
Several other providers employ a tiered pricing system. For instance,
payday lender ACE Cash Express charges 89 cents for money orders
up to $99, 99 cents for amounts from $100 to $249, $1.49 for amounts
from $250 to $499, $1.99 for amounts from $500 to $999, and $2.49
for $1,000 money orders.
28
In this case, the Postal Service charges a
higher price for money orders of less than $250, but a lower price for
larger money orders.
22 Based on OIG analysis of FDIC data. FDIC, 2013 FDIC National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households, 2014, https://www.fdic.gov/householdsurvey/. Raw
data was obtained here: https://www.economicinclusion.gov/downloads/index.html.
23 Ibid.
24 Neither Western Union or MoneyGram report sales volume of money orders. This statement is based on estimates using the number of households that use non-postal
money orders.
25 U.S. Postal Service, Sending Money Orders, https://www.usps.com/shop/money-orders.htm.
26 Kash King website: http://www.kashking.com/.
27 Urban Institute, Transportation and Price Leadership Role of the Postal Service, August 16, 2011, http://www.prc.gov/sites/default/les/archived/Price_Leader_Report.pdf,
p. 17.
28 Based on calls made to three ACE Cash Express locations in the Washington, DC, area in November 2015.
Figure 5: Money Order Pricing
MONEY ORDER PRICES VARY WIDELY
For money orders of up to $500, the U.S. Postal
Service is up to 58 percent more expensive than other
national retailers.
*Do not offer money orders of more than $500
†Tiered pricing for very small money orders goes as low as 89 cents
Source: OIG research on a sample of locations in the Washington,
DC, area and rural Virginia. Pricing may vary by region and franchise.
$0.79
$0.99
$0.99
$0.99
$0.99
$1.25
$1.49
$0.79
$1.65
$1.99
Walmart
(MoneyGram)
Advance America
(MoneyGram)*
CVS (MoneyGram)*
Rite Aid (Western
Union)*
Safeway (Western
Union)*
U.S. Postal Service
Ace Cash Express
(MoneyGram)†
Less than $500
$500 to $1,000
Retailer (money
order vendor)
U.S. Postal
Service
Money order size
Price
Up to $500
$501
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If the Postal Service sought to increase the number of pricing tiers for money orders, there is a precedent: from 1966 to 1985,
there were three pricing levels for postal money orders.
29
Additionally, other posts, including An Post in Ireland and the Post Ofce
in the United Kingdom, have a four-tiered pricing system.
30
In both cases, small value postal money orders are comparatively
cheaper in Ireland (87 cents) and Great Britain (73 cents) than in the United States.
31
Although the price of a postal money order has changed nine times since 1988, those price hikes have actually not even kept
pace with ination, causing the real price to decline 17 percent over that period.
32
Unlike private providers, the Postal Service faces
signicant regulatory hurdles for all price changes to money orders.
33
Many View Postal Money Orders as a Premium Product
Postal money orders have several real and/or perceived advantages over other money orders. For one, they can be cashed for
free at any post ofce, provided funds are available.
34
None of the 14 pharmacies, convenience stores, supermarkets, or big box
stores contacted by the OIG would cash even the money orders they sell themselves. Some recipients of payments and banks
treat postal money orders like cash, while they treat private label money orders like checks that must rst clear before funds are
available.
35
Thus, postal money orders serve the needs of businesses looking for secure and reliable payment options.
The Postal Service also is one of the few national providers that sells money orders over $500 in face value.
36
The size is
important, as many payments, particularly rent/mortgage, often are greater than $500. The post ofce also is one of the relatively
few places that allow customers to pay for a money order with a debit card.
37
This can be especially helpful to the growing number
of Americans who receive their pay via a prepaid card, such as the 5 million federal benets recipients who use the Treasury
Department’s Direct Express prepaid debit card.
38
They collectively spent $297 million at the Postal Service in 2014 — more than
they spent at any other merchant save for one, which was an undisclosed large national retailer.
39
The perceived superiority of postal money orders shows up in message board discussions when ecommerce buyers and sellers
debate the merits of different payment options. “I only accept USPS money orders. You cash them at the post ofce and they can
tell right away before you ship the item if it is good. I have never had a problem with them,” wrote an Etsy seller.
40
“USPS money
orders are the safest you can get. Take it to the Post Ofce, get CASH, hand the package to the clerk. Unlike depositing a money
order in your bank account, once the [post ofce] hands you cash, you are good to go,” wrote an eBay seller.
41
Though anecdotal,
these opinions from real users help illustrate why many prefer postal money orders to others.
29 Based on a money order fee history provided by the Postal Service.
30 An Post, Money Transfers, http://www.anpost.ie/AnPost/MainContent/Personal+Customers/Money+Matters/Money+Transfer/ and Post Ofce, Postal Orders,
http://www.postofce.co.uk/postal-orders.
31 Yahoo Currency Converter, January 15, 2016, http://nance.yahoo.com/currency-converter/#from=USD;to=EUR;amt=1.
32 OIG analysis of Postal Service and Bureau of Labor Statistics data: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1512.pdf, p. 74.
33 Money orders are classied as a “market dominant” product.
34 U.S. Postal Service, Domestic Mail Manual: S020 Money Orders and Other Services, http://pe.usps.com/Archive/HTML/DMMArchive0810/S020.htm.
35 For example, the Federal Bureau of Prisons puts a 15-day hold on payments to inmates made with non-postal money orders, but makes the funds from postal money
orders available immediately, https://www.bop.gov/inmates/communications.jsp.
36 Of the locations contacted in this study, only Walmart and ACE Cash Express offered high dollar money orders.
37 Of the locations contacted in this study, all but two restricted payment for money orders to cash only.
38 Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Direct Express Debit MasterCard Card Program: 94 percent Customer Satisfaction Rating for Sixth Consecutive year, March 2015,
http://www.scal.treasury.gov/fsservices/indiv/pmt/dirExpss/dirExpss_blog.htm and Pew Charitable Trusts, Why Americans Use Prepaid Cards, February 2014,
http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedles/pcs_assets/2014/prepaidcardssurveyreportpdf.pdf, pp. 1–3.
39 Based on a June 19, 2015 conversation with the director who oversees Direct Express. The program advises users to use their Direct Express card to purchase postal
money orders to pay rent, https://scal.treasury.gov/godirect/social-security-federal-benets-direct-deposit/directexpress/index.html.
40 Etsy, Should I Accept a USPS Money Order?, https://www.etsy.com/teams/7718/questions/discuss/12470627/.
41 eBay, Should I Accept a USPS Money Order as Payment for an Item?, http://community.eBay.com/t5/Archive-Miscellaneous/Should-I-accept-USPS-money-order-as-
payment-for-an-item/td-p/18359545.
Small businesses use postal
money orders as a reliable,
inexpensive way to
receive payment.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
10
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
One of the Postal Service’s biggest shortcomings in the money order space is its thin menu of additional alternative nancial
services compared to other providers. Most Western Union and MoneyGram agents, including pharmacies and convenience
stores, also offer money transfers, bill pay, and prepaid cards. Many agents, including Walmart and standalone nancial providers
like ACE Cash Express, also offer check cashing and/or small dollar loans. FDIC data show that money order users who use
multiple alternative nancial services are signicantly less likely to buy their money orders from the Postal Service. For example,
57 percent of households that use check cashing also use money
orders, but only 20 percent of those that use both services buy their
money orders from the Postal Service — presumably in large part
because post ofces do not offer payroll check cashing.
42
While the
Postal Service offers some money transfers, prepaid gift cards, and
limited cashing of Treasury checks, the existence of these services
is not well known and sales are miniscule. If post ofces were more
of a one-stop-shop for affordable alternative nancial services, this
convenience could save customers valuable time and money.
Most Payments Are Going Electronic. Money Orders Could Too.
Americans are choosing to pay more of their bills electronically,
which can be more convenient and inexpensive for some. This
includes direct payments made through billers’ websites and bank-
based bill pay services. If the Postal Service introduced an electronic
money order, as many foreign posts have done, it may be in a better
position to serve the needs of individuals and businesses looking for
modernized payment options.
For instance, Australia Post lets customers purchase money orders
through its website, as shown in Figure 6. Customers can opt to have
a paper money order printed and mailed or have a voucher emailed
to the recipient. Vouchers can be redeemed for cash at the nearest
post ofce.
43
Several other foreign posts also offer payment services
through web or mobile portals, including Israel Post, Swiss Post, and
Poste Italiane.
44
Online money orders are generally not available in
the United States. At least one company, Payko, made a short-lived
entrance to this market.
45
However, it did not have the reach, trust,
or built-in customer base of the Postal Service, which may have a
strong market opportunity to offer such a product.
42 OIG analysis of 2013 FDIC data.
43 Australia Post, Domestic Money Transfer (Money Orders & Vouchers), http://auspost.com.au/money-insurance/domestic-money-transfer.html.
44 Israel Post, Postal Check (Money Orders) in Israel, http://www.israelpost.co.il/postshirut.nsf/misparide/102?OpenDocument and PostFinance (the nancial services unit
of Swiss Post), Domestic Payments, https://www.postnance.ch/en/priv/prod/pay/national.html and Poste Italiane, Payments, http://www.poste.it/bancoposta/pagamenti/
pagamenti.shtml.
45 Justin Pritchard, “Why You Can’t Find Money Orders Online,” About.com, November 26, 2014, http://banking.about.com/od/MoneyOrders/a/Why-You-Can-T-Find-Money-
Orders-Online.htm and Alia Hoyt, “Can You Get a Money Order Online?” HowStuffWorks.com, October 10, 2011, http://money.howstuffworks.com/personal-nance/
online-banking/money-order-online.htm.
Figure 6: Australia Post’s Online Money Order
The Postal Service offers fewer
alternative nancial services
compared to other money
order providers.
Source: Screenshot from http://auspost.com.au/money-
insurance/domestic-money-transfer.html.
FOREIGN POSTS OFFER
ELECTRONIC MONEY ORDERS
Some posts abroad, including Australia Post, offer
electronic money orders. The U.S. Postal Service
could introduce a similar product.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
11
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
In an effort to bundle money orders with core mail products, several international posts promote the ability to deliver money orders
to recipients through the mail. While the typical time for delivery is 3 to 5 business days, Correos, the Spanish postal operator, also
offers the option to send a money order via express service. For a fee of 15 euros (about $17) plus 1.25 percent of the face value,
Correos will deliver the money order the same day in certain large cities and overnight anywhere else in the country.
46
Meanwhile,
India Post offers a slightly different method of delivery for money orders as an option for consumers. With its Instant Money Order,
it allows customers to purchase a money order at any post ofce, but instead of a physical money order, the customer receives a
unique code that can be transmitted to the recipient via phone, email, or text message and then used to obtain cash at select India
Post retail locations.
47
A Look at Money Order Users
People from all walks of life use money orders, and they
use them in different ways and for different reasons. The
U.S. Census Bureau conducts a biennial survey for the
FDIC on the nancial lives of Americans who are partially
or completely left out of the mainstream nancial system —
including those who use money orders.
48
The OIG analyzed
the raw survey data to glean signicant insights into this
population.
49
The OIG also conducted interviews with
50 money order users at post ofces in the
Washington, DC, area.
50
Heavy Users Comprise Three-Fourths of Postal Money
Order Purchases
An estimated 6.4 million households bought postal money
orders in 2013, buying an average of 16 money orders
per year, but that is not the complete picture.
51
The OIG
estimates that 35 percent of users accounted for three
quarters of sales, buying an average of three postal money
orders per month.
52
Users interviewed by the OIG said
they use money orders to pay monthly bills, with the most
popular being rent/mortgage payments (78 percent), utilities/
unspecied bills (58 percent), and insurance payments
(10 percent).
46 Correos, Giro Nacional Money Remittance, http://www.correos.es/ss/Satellite/site/servicio-1349171446591-envio_dinero_servicios_nancieros/detalle_servicio-
sidioma=en_GB and Yahoo Currency Converter, January 15, 2016, http://nance.yahoo.com/currency-converter/#from=USD;to=EUR;amt=1.
47 India Post, Instant Money Order (iMO), http://www.indiapost.gov.in/IMOS.aspx.
48 FDIC, 2013 FDIC National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households, p. 4.
49 This was a very large sample survey, making it highly statistically valid.
50 This was a non-scientic survey conducted July 2, 2015 at two Washington, DC, area post ofces. It may not represent all money order users.
51 The Postal Service sold 102.3 million money orders in FY 2013. U.S. Postal Service, “USPS-FY13-4 - FY 2013 Market Dominant Billing Determinants,” Postal Regulatory
Commission Docket No. ACR2013, December 27, 2013, http://www.prc.gov/dockets/document/88662.
52 This assumes that households that had purchased a money order in the past year, but not in the past 30 days, bought an average of six money orders per year.
Households that purchased a money order in the past 30 days bought an average of 35 per year. For the full methodology behind this estimate, see Appendix B.
Figure 7: Postal vs Non-Postal Money Order Users
POSTAL VS NON-POSTAL MONEY ORDER USERS
Among households that purchased a money order in the past
12 months, those that bought them at post offices have some key
differences from those that purchased non-postal money orders.
*In the past 12 months
Source: OIG analysis of 2013 FDIC data on households that had used money
orders in the previous 12 months
.
Used postal
money orders*
Used non-postal
money orders*
Number of households 6,351,489 14,539,122
Have a bank account 86% 76%
Use check cashing* 15% 25%
Use international remittances* 8% 11%
Use pawn loans* 5% 11%
Use payday loans* 3% 7%
Use prepaid cards* 14% 20%
Use refund anticipation loans* 3% 6%
Use auto title loans* 2% 3%
Are under age 35 20% 35%
Are over age 54 38% 24%
Have a college degree 27% 17%
Are unemployed 6% 8%
Have $50,000+ income 39% 28%
Have a smartphone 57% 61%
Own their home 56% 38%
Are immigrants 15% 17%
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
Users also tend to buy more of their money orders at the end of the week, when many get paid, and at the beginning of the month
when rent is due. Sales spike signicantly during those times.
53
Money Order Users Are Demographically Diverse
Households that use money orders are diverse by age, household income, and race/ethnicity — though they do stand out in some
key ways.
Age
It is not surprising that younger households pay a much
greater portion of their bills electronically than older
generations, but it is surprising that young folks are
also signicantly more likely to use money orders than
older households.
54
This suggests that, for the relatively
few bills younger Americans pay in paper form, many
may prefer to pay them with money orders rather than
personal checks.
Young folks’ heavy utilization of money orders bodes
well for the future of the product. Unfortunately for the
Postal Service, households led by younger people are
signicantly less likely to buy their money orders at the
post ofce, as is illustrated in Figure 8. There may be
several reasons for this. Younger people might have
less familiarity with the Postal Service, as they use the
mail less frequently than older generations.
55
Also,
the Postal Service does not offer any online or digital
component to its money orders, and younger folks tend to
lean more on technology than older Americans.
Household Income
The lower a family’s income, the more likely it is to have
purchased a money order in the past year. It is especially more likely to have bought one in the past 30 days, yet higher income
families are still signicant customers. Nearly one-third of those who used a money order in the past year had household income
of at least $50,000. Among those who use money orders, higher income households are more likely to buy their money orders at
the post ofce than lower income families. This, again, may be because lower income households are more likely to use multiple
alternative nancial services, and may nd it more convenient to buy their money orders from providers that offer a broader range
of nancial products. See Appendix C for more detailed statistics on money order users and how those who buy their money
orders at the post ofce differ from those who buy money
orders elsewhere.
53 OIG analysis of data from the Postal Retail Data Mart.
54 U.S. Postal Service, The Household Diary Study: Mail Use & Attitudes in FY 2014, p. 36.
55 Ibid., pp. 31, 39, and 44.
Figure 8: More Young Americans Use Money Orders
Lower income households
are more likely to use multiple
alternative nancial services and
may seek to buy their money
orders from providers with a
broader range of
nancial services.
YOUNGER PEOPLE USE MONEY ORDERS, BUT ARE
LESS LIKELY TO BUY THEM AT POST OFFICES
The younger a household, the more likely it is to use money
orders. Unfortunately, households led by younger people are also
less likely to buy their money orders from the Postal Service.
Source: OIG analysis of 2013 FDIC data on households that had purchased
a money order in the previous 12 months.
Portion that purchased a
money order in past year
Portion of money order users
who buy at post office
29%
22%
20%
18%
15%
10%
15%
22%
29%
32%
37%
42%
15 to 24
65+
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
Age
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
Most Money Order Users Could Write Checks Instead. Why Don’t They?
Eighty-six percent of postal money order users have a bank account, and 82 percent have a checking account.
56
Why would they
bother going to the post ofce and paying $1.25 to $1.65 for a money order when they could spend a fraction of the time and
money by writing a check from the comfort of their own homes? There is no hard data on this, but based on conversations with
money order users and research on other alternative nancial services, we have some educated guesses.
■
Money orders do not lead to overdrafts: For those with low balances on their bank accounts, there is legitimate anxiety
about overdraft fees, which typically cost about $35 for each offense.
57
And they can quickly compound, with the average
overdraft costing consumers a total of $69 in fees — enough to throw a wrench in a family’s budget.
58
By comparison, a
$1.25 money order fee is very affordable.
■
Many families prefer to use all cash budgets: A popular (and effective) budgeting technique is to pay for everything in cash,
which makes it more difcult to overspend.
59
Many families on all cash budgets use money orders to pay bills — which would
help explain why customers purchased 71 percent of the postal money orders sold in 2015 with cash.
60
■
Personal checks are much less secure than money orders: When you write someone a personal check, you are giving
them all the information they need to withdraw money fraudulently from your account.
61
For payments made to entities you do
not necessarily trust, money orders are a much safer alternative.
■
Money order payments are guaranteed: While checks can bounce, money orders cannot. Their payments are guaranteed,
and they never expire.
62
For important bills, many money order users are willing to pay for that peace of mind.
■
Some billers ask to be paid with postal money orders: In interviews with money order users, 22 percent said the entity they
were paying asked to be paid with a postal money order. This includes some landlords, online sellers and
government entities.
63
56 OIG analysis of 2013 FDIC data.
57 The Pew Charitable Trusts, Overdrawn: Persistent Confusion and Concern About Bank Overdraft Practices, June 2014, http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/
assets/2014/06/26/safe_checking_overdraft_survey_report.pdf, p. 1.
58 Ibid.
59 Kim Tracy Prince, American Family Budget: Going All-Cash, All the Time, Mint Life, January 10, 2014, https://blog.mint.com/goals/american-family-budget-going-all-cash-
all-the-time-0114/ and Lampo Licensing, Dave Ramsey’s Envelope System, September 5, 2009, https://www.daveramsey.com/blog/dave-ramseys-envelope-system/.
60 OIG analysis of data from the Postal Service’s Retail Data Mart, which includes only POS and RSS locations.
61 Bob Sullivan, “Easy check fraud technique draws scrutiny,” NBC News, May 24, 2005, http://www.nbcnews.com/id/7914159/ns/technology_and_science-security/t/easy-
check-fraud-technique-draws-scrutiny/#.VovxMlWrRpg.
62 While postal money orders never expire, privately issued money orders may expire or decrease in value if not cashed within a certain period of time. U.S. Postal Service,
“Money Orders: What Are They?” https://www.usps.com/shop/money-orders.htm and Western Union, “Money Order Expiration,” https://thewesternunion.custhelp.com/
app/answers/detail/a_id/58/~/money-order-expiration.
63 The Landlord Protection Agency, “Tenant wants to pay rent with a money order,” May 10, 2012, https://www.thelpa.com/lpa/forum-thread/255154/Tenant-wants-to-pay-
rent-with-money-order.html; GunsAmerica, “GunsAmerica endorses USPS as exclusive form of non-credit card payment,” October 11, 2011, https://www.gunsamerica.
com/blog/gunsamerica-endorses-usps-as-exclusive-form-of-non-credit-card-payment/; Game Dude, “How to place an order with Game Dude,” www.gamedude.com/
mailorder.html; and Consulate General of Brazil in Atlanta, “Payment Options,” http://atlanta.itamaraty.gov.br/en-us/payment_options.xml.
Eight-two percent of postal
money order users have a
checking account.
Seventy-one percent of postal
money orders are purchased
with cash.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
14
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
Best Practices for Money Order Sales
As mentioned earlier, about 1,200 high volume post ofces have seen a 10 percent or greater jump in money order sales since
2012.
64
These high performing locations collectively grew their money order fee revenue by 20 percent. Their overall walk-in
revenue was essentially at, suggesting that money orders — which were present in 15 percent of the revenue transactions at
these locations — were a particular area of strength. On the ipside, about 500 high volume post ofces have seen a 20 percent or
greater decline in money order sales over the past 3 years. While location and external conditions explain some of the differences
between the low and high performers, sales execution may also be a signicant factor.
The best practices of high performers may
hold some lessons for other post ofces that may not be living up to their full potential for money order sales and customer service.
Here is a look at one of those top performers.
A Stand-Out Post Ofce: Frederick Douglass Station
Frederick Douglass Station in Southeast Washington is the top
seller of money orders in the Capital District, which includes the
District of Columbia and parts of Maryland.
65
Money orders were
present in 41 percent of the transactions at the post ofce in
FY 2015, when it sold more than 40,000 of them with a face value
of more than $11 million. Its money order fee revenue was up 23
percent from 2012, directly accounting for 11 percent of walk-in
revenue — though that gure is understated.
66
There are many nearby options for purchasing money orders.
The bustling shopping center where it operates has three bank
branches and a grocery store that sells money orders and
performs money transfers. The check cashing chain store two
blocks away also sells money orders. Despite many alternatives,
money order purchasers continue to ock to this location. Here
are some of the practices that contribute to its success.
■
A dedicated money order line: The post ofce has a separate line for customers buying money orders or stamps, which helps
improve customer ow and efciency of operations, ensuring that those in line for packages or mail pickup do not have to wait
behind money order customers. If there is no one in the packages line, the clerk at that window will serve the next money order
customer. When lines get really long, such as near the beginning of the month, there is a third retail window that staff will open
up to help keep the wait time down.
■
A specialized clerk: The money order line is generally staffed by a clerk with extensive experience selling money orders,
which is helpful in multiple ways. First, they know how to process the money orders quickly and efciently.
They also know their
customers, many of whom are regulars who come in month after month. These skills are well within the grasp of clerks at high
trafc money order locations.
64 High volume post ofces are those in the top 25 percent of all post ofces for money order fees.
65 Based on OIG analysis of money order data from the Accounting Data Mart.
66 The OIG estimates that every $1 in money order fees at Frederick Douglass Station led to an additional 53 cents in indirect revenue, which includes escheatment,
stamped envelope sales, and postage from mailed money orders.
Figure 9: Money Orders Line at Frederick
Douglass Station
Money orders are present in 41 percent of the transactions at Frederick Douglass
Station (above), a post ofce in Washington, DC.
The best practices of top
performing post ofces for
money order sales could hold
important lessons for other
post ofces.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
15
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
■
Customers have a good place to ll out their money orders: Many customers ll out their money orders at the post ofce,
so that they can mail them on the spot. To accommodate clientele who may prefer to sit, post ofce staff put in a table and
chairs, which are very popular with money order customers.
■
Sharing information on suspicious activity: When people try to buy or cash money orders in a way that seems suspicious,
staff le suspicious activity reports with the appropriate regulator. Postal staff also share information with colleagues at
other nearby post ofces where criminals may try the same scheme. Clerks also may alert the Postal Inspection Service,
which investigates money order fraud by postal customers. Specialized clerks can be particularly good at spotting potential
fraudsters.
Suggestions for Improving Service and Enhancing Revenue
Given the attractiveness of the money order business and the value it brings to the American people, the Postal Service could
take a series of initiatives to improve service and better meet the modern needs of those who purchase money orders and the
businesses that accept them as payment.
Assign a National Product Manager to Strategically Guide the Money Order Business
The Postal Service has not tasked anyone with strategic management of money orders.
67
Such a person, who should have deep
knowledge of the payments industry, could study the changing payments needs of people and businesses, ensuring that postal
money orders meet those needs. They also could work to understand and improve the product’s position in the marketplace and
implement the suggestions in this white paper. Given that postal money orders generate $21 billion a year in payments volume
and are present in 10 percent of all retail revenue transactions at post ofces, they seem to warrant a dedicated product manager
with expertise in the payments space.
Consider Potential Modernizations for Money Orders
Sell Paper Money Orders Online and through a Mobile App
Usps.com gets some 1.5 billion visits per year.
68
On the site, one can do everything from ordering stamps to printing postage
through Click-N-Ship, which customers used to print more than 50 million package labels in 2015, generating more than a half
a billion dollars in revenue.
69
Additionally, customers downloaded the USPS Mobile app 1.7 million times and made 77 million
visits to the mobile website m.usps.com.
70
All told, 46 percent of the Postal Service’s retail revenue comes from alternative access
channels like usps.com and USPS Mobile.
71
But to buy a postal money order, customers generally must do so in person at a
post ofce.
72
Among the 50 money order users interviewed for this white paper, nearly half said they would be likely to use an
app or online tool that allowed them to purchase a money order and have it delivered to a biller. It also could attract more young
Americans, many of whom are heavy users of non-postal money orders.
67 Based on conversations with Postal Service ofcials.
68 U.S. Postal Service, “Size and scope,” https://about.usps.com/who-we-are/postal-facts/size-scope.htm.
69 Ibid.
70 U.S. Postal Service, “The Post Ofce Is Always Open – USPS.com and USPS Mobile,” https://about.usps.com/who-we-are/postal-facts/always-open.htm.
71 U.S. Postal Service, “Size and scope.”
72 Money orders also can be purchased from rural mail carriers, who accept payment and have the customer ll out a form. The customer can provide a self-addressed
stamped envelope to receive the money order, or the carrier can deliver it on their next visit. U.S. Postal Service, S020 Money Orders and Other Services, Postal
Explorer, December 9, 2004, http://pe.usps.com/text/dmm/S020.htm.
Nearly half of the 50 postal
money order users interviewed
by the OIG said they would use
an online or mobile app to buy
money orders.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
16
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
Here is how such a service might work. Customers use a mobile app or usps.com to buy a money order, indicating the amount, the
recipient, and the recipient’s street address. Customers would pay for the money order and the postage with a debit/prepaid card
or by entering their checking account information. The money order could then be created at a central fulllment center and mailed
to the recipient.
73
The clerk’s time at the window comprises about two-thirds of the current costs associated with money orders.
74
Printing money
orders at central facilities could introduce signicant efciencies, making the product even more protable for the Postal Service
and generating more mail volume, given that all money orders purchased through this channel would be mailed. In addition, the
online channel would reduce opportunities for fraud or money laundering.
75
This process also could greatly strengthen the Postal Service’s relationship with money order users. Under the current model,
money orders are anonymous, one-off transactions that do not offer the Postal Service an opportunity to have an enduring
connection with the customer. The online/mobile channel could allow the Postal Service to communicate with its money order
users about their experience and make customer-centric improvements to the product and sales process.
76
The OIG estimates that adding the digital sales channel for paper money orders, along with active strategic management and
marketing, could lead to annual money order revenue of $238 million after 5 years — 59 percent higher than it would otherwise
be if current trends continue. The Postal Service would gain $232 million in cumulative additional revenue and $151 million
in contribution over that 5-year period. These estimates include the value of postage from mailed money orders. For the full
accounting and assumptions behind these gures, see Appendix D. Additionally, the Postal Service would likely not need the
Postal Regulatory Commission’s approval to begin selling paper money orders through digital channels.
Introduce Electronic Money Orders
In addition to allowing customers to purchase paper money orders online, the Postal Service also could offer fully-electronic
money orders — as many foreign posts have done. There would be capital costs to set up new systems for this innovation, though
the Postal Service could reduce those costs by partnering with a third party. And while it would require the approval of the Postal
Regulatory Commission, electronic money orders could truly bring this product into the digital age, allowing the Postal Service to
meet the modern payment needs of its customers.
One potential way to do this would be for the Postal Service to facilitate direct payments to large billers, such as utility, insurance,
credit card, and mortgage companies. Customers could select from a menu of participating billers, while seeing how quickly their
payment would arrive. The Postal Service could partner with a third party to get a directory of large billers and their payment
information, and the Federal Reserve could process the payments.
77
If the customer wants to pay a biller that is not on the list, the
Postal Service could cut a paper money order and mail it.
73 The Kansas City Stamp Fulllment Center or a similar facility could do this. Eventually, the Postal Service could move to place money order fulllment centers in selected
locations throughout the country and create each money order at the facility that is closest to the recipient. As a result, these payments could reach recipients days
quicker than a money order that was mailed from a single central facility — a signicant bonus for purchasers and recipients of money orders.
74 U.S. Postal Service, “USPS-FY15-2 - FY 2015 Public Cost Segments and Components,” Postal Regulatory Commission Docket No. ACR2015, December 29, 2015,
http://www.prc.gov/dockets/document/94340.
75 Most internal money order fraud happens at small post ofces where the clerk manually registers money order sales. The automation of digital channel sales would make
employee fraud much more difcult to perpetrate. In addition, having an electronic record of the purchaser and recipient could be a signicant deterrent for
money laundering.
76 Money order customers could opt-in to such communications and data collection as part of the online/mobile money order process.
77 The Federal Reserve, which processes paper postal money orders, facilitates electronic money transfers through the ACH system for the private sector. For the Fed to
process such payments for the Postal Service, the two organizations would need to modify their agreement, according to Federal Reserve ofcials interviewed by
the OIG.
Compared to money orders
purchased at post ofces,
paper money orders purchased
through digital channels could
be more protable and would
generate more mail volume.
Electronic money orders could
help small online merchants save
money on processing fees.
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Another approach would be to have the electronic money order purchaser provide the recipient’s email address. The
Postal Service could notify the recipient of the payment, giving them the option to have the funds transferred to their checking
account or prepaid card, or to take their emailed voucher into a post ofce for cash. This could be particularly attractive for small
online merchants who sell on sites such as eBay and Etsy. By receiving an electronic postal money order as payment, sellers
could avoid the processing fees they must pay for other types of payments, which are often 2.9 percent of the sale price, plus a
fee.
78
Sellers also could pick up their cash at a post ofce at the same time that they mail the merchandise to the buyer. Online
sellers already do this with paper money orders, though an electronic version would allow them to receive their payment much
more quickly.
79
Make Electronic Payments to Corrections Facilities
The Federal Bureau of Prisons, which tightly controls the channels through which millions of inmates and others can accept
payments, accepts paper money orders and electronic payments sent through MoneyGram and Western Union.
80
These electronic
transfers are priced three-to-eight times higher than paper money orders, creating a signicant opportunity for the Postal Service
to offer a more affordable electronic payment option for these citizens.
81
There also is a particularly strong public policy argument
to be made for the Postal Service to expand its payments services with respect to government entities, such as corrections
facilities.
Optimize the Retail Experience at High Volume Money Order Ofces
The retail experience is especially important at high volume money order locations, which account for three-fourths of all money
order fee revenue.
82
At these locations, money orders are present in an average of 14 percent of revenue transactions. Money
order transactions can impact wait time for all customers. High volume money order post ofces could minimize this by creating
a dedicated money order line staffed consistently by a clerk with the expertise needed to process money orders more efciently.
Post ofces with sufcient lobby space also could install a small table with a couple of chairs that customers can use to ll out their
money orders. Postal staff also could ensure that they consistently stock all counters and spaces with pens. Ultimately, a minimal
investment could have a huge impact on the customer experience and efciency.
While it makes sense to focus efforts for improvement on underperforming high volume ofces, stabilizing money order sales at
those locations alone may not be enough to stop the bleeding. Consider this: while the bottom half of post ofces for money order
sales comprised just 6 percent of money order fee revenue in 2015, their plunge in sales was so great that it accounted for more
than a quarter of the overall decline in money order sales since 2012. As such, it may be important to implement some nationwide,
common sense changes that could also help stabilize sales at smaller post ofces.
78 PayPal Help Center, “What are the fees for PayPal accounts?,” https://www.paypal.com/us/webapps/helpcenter/helphub/article/?solutionId=FAQ690.
79 eBay, Should I Accept a USPS Money Order as Payment for an Item?.
80 U.S. Department of Justice, Correctional Populations in the United States, 2014, January 21, 2016, http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus14.pdf, p. 1. JPay also is a
signicant player in corrections payments, though it works through a partnership with MoneyGram, as is explained here:
http://jpay.com/MoneyGram.aspx.
81 Payments of $1 to $300 made online to the Federal Bureau of Prisons cost $3.95 to $9.95 at Western Union and $5.95 to $9.95 at MoneyGram, according to their online
calculators: https://www.westernunion.com/us/en/inmatehome.html and https://secure.moneygram.com/payBills/payment-options.
82 This includes the approximately 8,000 post ofces in the top 25 percent for money order sales.
Small investments at post ofces
could have a big impact on the
customer experience.
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Communicate the Existence of Postal Money Orders as Well as the Advantages of Postal Money Orders and Any
Product Changes
The Postal Service appears to do little, if any, marketing of money orders. Targeted, effective communication could be essential
to the success of money orders and any innovations. If, for example, the Postal Service begins selling money orders through
a mobile app or offering electronic money orders, it could get the word out to existing money order users by passing out cards
explaining the new offerings with every money order sale. Clerks also could be trained to tell all money order customers that they
can now buy money orders from their phones and have them automatically delivered to the biller. In addition, the Postal Service
could notify all My USPS customers and users of the USPS Mobile app of the services. It also could install posters and sales
brochures in post ofces and banner ads on usps.com that explain the advantages of the services, and that tout the benets of
paying with a money order rather than a check or debit card in this age of rampant identity theft. With more than 2 billion annual
visits to post ofces and usps.com, a tremendous number of current and potential money order users could see this information.
83
The Postal Service also could strive to increase billers’ awareness of the advantages of accepting postal money orders as
payment. Many of these communications efforts could be accomplished at minimal cost to the Postal Service.
Perhaps Pursue Money Order Discount Agreements With Prepaid Card Companies
Use of general-purpose reloadable prepaid cards grew by more than 50 percent between 2012 and 2014, with some 23 million
adults regularly using them.
84
Many of these cards effectively serve as a replacement for a checking account, but without checks.
When prepaid users need to make a paper-based payment, many turn to money orders. The Postal Service could negotiate
discount agreements on money orders with prepaid card companies that encourage their customers to use postal money orders —
similar to the postage discounts regularly negotiated with high-volume shippers.
85
These agreements may require approval by the
Postal Service Board of Governors and the Postal Regulatory Commission. The prepaid provider would benet by being able to
offer their customers a new service and by ensuring that their customers use their prepaid card to purchase money orders; prepaid
users would benet by paying less for their money orders; and the Postal Service would benet by becoming the paper-based
payment provider of choice for many users of prepaid cards.
Ramp up Additional Alternative Financial Services Offerings
One of the Postal Service’s shortcomings in the money order space is a lack of compelling complementary products. If the
Postal Service overhauled and expanded its current menu of additional alternative nancial services, including money transfers,
prepaid gift cards, and limited check cashing, it could signicantly benet the many money order users who also use additional
alternative nancial services.
83 U.S. Postal Service, “Size and scope.”
84 The Pew Charitable Trusts, Banking on Prepaid: Survey of Motivations and Views of Prepaid Card Users, June 2015, http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/assets/2015/06/
bankingonprepaidreport.pdf, p. 2.
85 There are complex rules surrounding these sorts of agreements, and the Postal Service would need to ensure that the increased volume from prepaid customers makes
up for the cost of the discount.
Effective communication about
the value of any money order
innovations will be essential to
their success.
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Conclusion
The Postal Service has been offering money orders since the Civil War, but the product is facing signicant challenges in the wake
of widespread alternatives and shifts to electronic forms of payment. While the Postal Service has devoted virtually no marketing
or strategic management resources to money orders, it remains among the Postal Service’s more protable businesses. Active
strategic management and product innovations that help money orders meet the modern needs of the American people could
reverse declines in money order volume. But time is of the essence. The number of postal money orders sold annually has fallen
by a quarter in the past 5 years.
86
If the Postal Service does nothing, money order volume (and the mail volume that comes with it)
will likely continue to decline. The longer the Postal Service waits to take action and modernize this important product, the smaller
the impact of that action will be, and the fewer people and businesses that will benet.
Management’s Comments
Management reiterated their concerns with one of the potential enhancements to money orders that other posts have instituted
— offering paper money orders online or through a mobile app, and having them printed at a postal facility and mailed to the
recipient. Management also asked questions about and disagreed with some of the assumptions the OIG used to support
the nancial analysis in its hypothetical scenarios. In addition, management suggested a couple of areas in our paper where
additional, minor clarications could be benecial.
See Appendix E for management’s comments in their entirety.
Evaluation of Management’s Comments
The OIG agrees with management that printing money orders at multiple postal facilities throughout the country could present
some challenges. In our paper, the OIG analyzed a hypothetical scenario based on printing money orders at one centralized postal
facility.
The OIG interviewed 50 money order users at post ofce locations in the Washington, DC, area to get a better sense of how and
why people use money orders. In the absence of actual postal data on how many money orders are mailed, these interviews
allowed us to develop a reasonable, conservative estimate of mailed money orders. All other aspects of our analysis were drawn
from actual postal data sources, such as the Cost and Revenue Analysis report; the Revenue, Pieces, and Weight report; and the
Accounting Data Mart.
Based on management’s comments, we made slight modications to the relevant cells in Tables 4 and 5 of Appendix D to clarify
that the number of money orders mailed is an estimate and not an actual number. While this is described at multiple points in the
paper, including in Appendix D, we thank management for bringing this need for clarication in the tables of the Appendix to our
attention.
Our assumption regarding the future increase in the average money order fee is based on the actual average annual increase
from 2010 to 2015. Postal data shows that the historical trend is largely caused by the increase in the size of the average face
value of money orders. As more customers shift toward purchasing larger face value money orders, more of them will pay the
Postal Service’s current $1.65 fee for money orders instead of the $1.25 fee.
86 Postal Service Cost and Revenue Analysis reports, 2010–2015.
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Finally, it is important to note that we did not receive any formal request to provide supporting data for the hypothetical fully-
electronic money order scenario and, further, that we did not conduct any such analysis in this paper. We included nancial
estimates for electronic money orders in a previous paper. If management is interested in that analysis, we would be more than
happy to discuss it.
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Appendices
Click on the appendix title
to the right to navigate to
the section content
Appendix A: Statistical Methodology for Underperforming
Post Ofce Analysis ...............................................................................23
Appendix B: Estimating the Postal Service’s Share of
Money Orders Sold ..............................................................................25
Appendix C: A Closer Look at Money Order Users ...............................27
Appendix D: Financial Impact of Active Management and
Digital Channels for Paper Money Orders .............................................31
Appendix E: Management’s Comments ................................................37
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Appendix A:
Statistical Methodology
for Underperforming
Post Ofce Analysis
The OIG created a multiple linear regression model to examine factors that explain the differences in money order fee revenue
between high performing and low performing post ofces. The model was cross-sectional using variables that were either 4- or
5-year averages taken over the period ranging from 2010 to 2015. The dependent variable — a 4-year average of money order
fee revenue from each post ofce from the years 2012 to 2015 — was regressed on an array of explanatory variables, including
both exogenous and endogenous factors, and estimates the demand for money orders as a function of those factors. In order to
represent a similar period of time, the independent variables were also measured using multi-year data where appropriate, such
as Census 5-year estimates (2010-2014) for demographic variables. The exogenous independent variables examined were the
proximity of the post ofce to another money order provider (Walmart); the total population in the ZIP Code in which the post ofce
is located; the percentage of residents at or below the poverty line in the ZIP Code in which the post ofce is located; and the
percentage of the population with education beyond the high school level in the ZIP Code in which the post ofce is located.
The
two endogenous factors examined were the post ofce’s average yearly walk-in revenue and a dummy variable indicating whether
the post ofce was a part of the POSt Plan. All of these variables were signicant predictors of money order fee revenue; however,
a close examination of the scatterplot for the distance between a post ofce and a Walmart location revealed an inconclusive
relationship despite a small p-value. Therefore, the nal regression model, shown in Table 1, does not include the proximity to
a Walmart.
Of the 32,544 post ofces with some money order revenue during the three-year study period, only 25,782 had complete data for all
variables and we used these as the measured data set. Data about money order fee revenue, walk-in revenue, and the POSt Plan
were obtained from the Postal Service Accounting Data Mart, while population, poverty, and education data were taken from U.S.
Census Bureau 5-year averages for the year 2014. Data about Walmart locations came from Esri’s business analyst database.
Table 1: OLS Regression Model for Average Money Order Fees
Dependent Variable: ln
(Average Money Order Fee Revenue) Coefcient
Robust
Standard Error t-statistic Pr > |t|
Walk-In Revenue 0.00000103 8.330612E-8 12.31 <.0001
Population 0.00001377 0.00000145 9.49 <.0001
Percent in Poverty 0.03831 0.00137 27.9 8 <.0001
Percent Above High School Education -0.01303 0.00086921 -14.99 <.0001
POStPlan -1.58987 0.02085 -76.25 <.0001
Intercept 7. 203 41 0.02822 255.28 <.0001
Adj-R
2
0.6073
N 25782
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The purpose of the regression model was to serve as a way to identify post ofces that were underperforming in money order
sales. To do this, the model identied approximately 4,300 post ofces where predicted fee revenue exceeded actual fee revenue.
Examining a scatter plot of the model prediction versus the actual money order fees, the model appears to be a generally
consistent predictor with only a few outlier predictions, as is illustrated in Figure 10.
Regression Diagnostics
The distribution of the dependent variable was
highly non-normal, which causes problems for
ordinary least squares regression. As a result,
the dependent variable was transformed
using the natural logarithm. Additionally, a
scatterplot of the residuals revealed moderate
heteroskedasticity; therefore, heteroskedastic
robust standard errors were used to
compensate. Lastly, there was the possibility
that some of the independent variables
could display multicollinearity, particularly the
variables for education and poverty. Although
the correlation between these two variables
was moderate (r = 0.37), variance ination
factors for both independent variables were
below the upper threshold of 2, indicating that
any multicollinearity present does not have
a substantial effect on the standard error
calculations, making a type 1 error unlikely.
Underperforming Post Ofces Analysis
Using Regression Results
Using the predictions generated from the above regression model, about 4,300 post ofces from the high-sales quartiles (1 and 2)
were identied where predicted money order fee revenue exceeded actual revenue. Of this subset, the 1,000 post ofces with the
largest difference between predicted and actual revenues were identied and projections of annual revenue for the years 2016 to
2020 were calculated under two different scenarios. The rst scenario involved current declines continuing at the pace displayed
from 2012 to 2015. These amounts were calculated using the compound annual growth rate for all 1,000 underperforming post
ofces. Under the second scenario, the assumptions included the possibility for growth in money order fee revenues. For the rst
year, growth remained at while in the second year, money order fee revenues grew 5 percent. In the nal 3 years, fee growth
remained steady at 10 percent each year. For each scenario, escheatment revenue was added at the constant rate of 29.33
percent per year, which was the average for escheatment as a proportion of overall fee revenue between 2010 to 2015. The
difference between revenues in scenario 1 and scenario 2, aggregated over the 5-year period, produced the $9,035,531 estimate
of potential revenue gained from increasing money order sales at this small selection of underperforming locations.
Figure 10: Scatterplot of Predicted vs. Actual Money Order Fees
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Appendix B:
Estimating the
Postal Service’s Share of
Money Orders Sold
There is no denitive accounting of the total number of money orders sold in the U.S., as private sector providers do not publish
their sales volumes. To estimate the size of the money order pie and of the Postal Service’s share of it, the OIG relied on FDIC
data on households that use money orders, publicly available postal data, and assumptions about the average number of money
orders different types of users purchase. The below analysis explains our methodology.
Frequent vs Intermittent Users
In 2013, the FDIC surveyed households that use money orders and identied those that had purchased a money order in the past
30 days. These households are likely “frequent users.” The survey also identied households that had purchased a money order in
the past year, but not the past 30 days. These are likely “intermittent users.” The FDIC also asked households where they usually
purchase their money orders, showing that 2.2 million frequent user households and 4.1 million intermittent user households
typically bought their money orders at the post ofce. We know that the Postal Service sold 102.3 million money orders in 2013
— an average of 16 per household. Clearly, frequent users buy more than intermittent users. To estimate how that breaks down,
the OIG created a range for the average number of money orders intermittent user households might purchase annually — low
(three), medium (six), and high (10). We then calculated the number of money orders frequent user households would have to
purchase under each scenario to bring the total to 102.3 million, as T
able 2 illustrates.
Table 2: Estimating the Number of Postal Money Orders Purchased by Frequent and Intermittent Users
Low estimate Medium estimate High estimate
Number of
households
Money orders
purchased
annually per
household
Total money
orders
purchased
annually
Money orders
purchased
annually per
household
Total money
orders
purchased
annually
Money orders
purchased
annually per
household
Total money
orders
purchased
annually
Frequent
users
2,206,946 41 89,864,586 35 77,430,956 28 60,852,784
Intermittent
users
4,144,543 3 12,433,629 6 24,867,259 10 41,445,431
Total 6,351,489 16 102,298,215 16 102,298,215 16 102,298,215
Extrapolating Overall Market Share
The OIG then applied the low, medium, and high estimates for the annual number of postal money orders that frequent user
households and intermittent user households purchased to the overall population of money order users, not just those who buy
postal money orders. This allowed the OIG to extrapolate the total number of money orders sold in each scenario, and thus the
Postal Service’s share of the total in each scenario. The FDIC did a similar survey in 2011 (though it did not ask respondents
where they usually buy their money orders). The OIG applied the same low, medium, and high estimates for the number of
money orders each type of household purchased to the 2011 gures, estimating the change in the number of money orders sold
between 2011 and 2013. In every scenario, the total decline in the market was between 2.7 and 2.9 percent — about a quarter
of the Postal Service’s 11 percent decline in money order sales between 2011 and 2013, as is illustrated in Table 3. In fact, the
Postal Service’s decline in the number of money orders sold was greater than the overall market decline, meaning that sales of
non-postal money orders actually increased. This adds to the evidence that there is signicant room for improvement in the postal
money order business.
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Table 3: Overall Money Order Market and the Postal Service’s Share
2011 Money Orders Sold 2013 Money Orders Sold
Frequent
users
Intermittent
users
Total money
orders sold
USPS
market
share
Frequent
users
Intermittent
users
Total money
orders sold
USPS
market
share
Total market
decline
Overall Market
Low estimate 405,245,745 36,379,576 441,625,321 26% 394,707,666 35,032,771 429,740,437 24% -2.7%
Medium estimate 349,176,101 72,759,151 421,935,252 27% 340,096,066 70,065,542 410,161,6 08 25% -2.8%
High estimate 274,416,575 121,265,252 395,681,827 29% 267,280,600 116,775,9 03 384,056,502 27% -2.9%
Postal Service 115,283,126 102,298,215 -11.3%
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Appendix C:
A Closer Look at Money
Order Users
The OIG analyzed the raw data from the FDIC’s 2013 survey of unbanked and underbanked households to gain insights into
money order users, including their demographic backgrounds and their use of technology and nancial services. The data
also illuminate the differences between those who used postal money orders vs non-postal money orders, and those who had
purchased a money order in the previous 30 days vs those who bought a money order in the previous year, but not the previous
month. The following graphics illustrate some of the more interesting ndings.
Figure 11: Where People Buy Their Money Orders
WHERE DO PEOPLE BUY THEIR MONEY ORDERS?
Many types of retailers offer money orders, from stores like Walmart and 7-
Eleven to check cashers and payday lenders. The chart below illustrates
where Americans usually buy their money orders, broken out by households
that had purchased a money order in the past 30 days (frequent users) and
those that had purchased a money order in the past year, but not the past
month (intermittent users).
Source: OIG analysis of 2013 FDIC data on households that had used money
orders in the previous 12 months
.
Grocery, liquor, convenience, or
drug store
Post office
Large retail or department store
Stand alone non-bank financial
services store
Other/unknown
Frequent users
Intermittent users
Purchase location Households (millions)
6.4
4.1
8.1
2.3
0.5
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Figure 12: Postal Money Order Users are Diverse
POSTAL MONEY
ORDER USERS ARE
DIVERSE
Households that use postal money
orders are generationally,
economically, and racially/
ethnically diverse. However, postal
money orders are less popular
with those under the age of 25
and more popular with minorities.
Source: OIG analysis of 2013 FDIC data on households that had used money orders in
the previous 12 months and that usually bought their money orders at the post office.
15 to 24
4%
25 to 34
16%
35 to 44
19%
45 to 54
22%
55 to 64
20%
65 or older
18%
Age Group
$75K+
23%
Less than $15k
22%
$15k to $30k
20%
$30k to $50k
19%
$50k to $75k
16%
Household Income
Race/Ethnicity
White
55%
Black
28%
Hispanic
12%
Other
5%
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Figure 13: Money Order User Demographics
Black
Hispanic
White
Other
4%
8%
88%
4%
8%
88%
11% 24% 65%
5%
21%
74%
Race/Ethnicity: Black households were more than twice as likely as any other to have used postal money
orders. While Hispanics were heavy users of money orders, they were much less likely than others to have
bought their money orders at the post office.
Less than $15K
$15K - $30K
$30K - $50K
$50K - $75K
$75K+
BREAKING DOWN MONEY ORDER USERS BY RACE, AGE, AND INCOME
Source: OIG analysis of 2013 FDIC data on household money orders use during the previous 12 months.
Use postal money orders
4%
8%
Use non-postal money orders Do not use money orders/use unknown
Household Income: Lower income households were more likely to use money orders. However, low
income money order users were less likely to have bought their money orders at the post office.
Age Group: Younger households were more likely to have used money orders. However, younger money
order users were less likely to have bought their money orders at the post office.
15 - 24 years
25 - 34 years
35 - 44 years
45 - 54 years
55 - 64 years
65+
4% 24% 71%
5%
17%
78%
6%
14%
80%
6%
12%
82%
6%
9%
86%
4%
5%
90%
7%
21%
72%
6%
17%
77%
5%
12%
83%
5%
9%
86%
4% 5% 90%
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Figure 14: Money Order Users’ Use of Other Alternative Financial Services
POSTAL MONEY ORDER USERS ARE THE LEAST LIKELY TO USE
ADDITIONAL TYPES OF ALTERNATIVE FINANCIAL SERVICES
Many households that use money orders also use other alternative financial services (AFS), including
check cashing, prepaid cards, international remittances, payday loans, auto title loans, pawn loans,
refund anticipation loans, and rent-to-own services. As the charts below illustrate, households that
bought their money orders at the post office were significantly less likely to have used additional AFS
during the previous year compared to those that bought their money orders elsewhere.
Note: Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Source: OIG analysis of 2013 FDIC data on household AFS use during the previous 12 months.
Additional types of AFSNo additional types of AFS
4%
8%
Intermittent Users: Households that had purchased a money order in the previous 12 months, but not in
the previous 30 days, were generally less likely to use additional types of AFS compared to those that had
purchased a money order in the past month.
Frequent Users: Among households that had purchased a money order in the previous 30 days, those
that bought their money orders at large retail or department stores (e.g. Walmart) and standalone AFS
providers (e.g. payday lenders) were the most likely to use additional types of AFS products.
45%
57%
63%
69%
55%
43%
37%
31%
Post office
Grocery, liquor,
convenience, or drug store
Large retail or department
store
Stand alone AFS store
68%
60%
51%
50%
32%
40%
49%
50%
Post office
Grocery, liquor,
convenience, or drug store
Large retail or department
store
Stand alone AFS store
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
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Modernizing the Postal Money Order
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Appendix D:
Financial Impact of Active
Management and Digital
Channels for Paper
Money Orders
The OIG estimates that if the Postal Service actively managed and promoted money orders at a strategic level and began offering
paper money orders through digital channels, such as usps.com and the My USPS app, that it could gain efciencies and grow
revenue. The nancial projections and the assumptions behind those estimates are below.
The Baseline: What Happens if Current Trends Continue
The OIG began by examining what would likely happen if the Postal Service does not make any changes and the trends of recent
years continue. The key assumptions, as explained below, are based on publicly available postal data, unless otherwise stated.
Revenue Assumptions
■
Volume, which is the number of money orders sold, continues to fall by an average of 6 percent per year, as it did between
2010 and 2015.
■
The average money order fee paid by customers (given the shift toward larger, more expensive money orders) increases
3 cents per year, as it did, on average, between 2010 and 2015.
■
Escheatment revenue, which is the face value of money orders that go unredeemed for 2 years, continues to average
29 percent of money order fees, as it did between 2010 and 2015.
■
“Float,” which is the interest income earned by investing the balance of outstanding money orders, remains at 2015 levels.
This income has not uctuated much in recent years — despite signicant declines in money order volume — and is highly
dependent on market interest rates. While there are indications that interest rates may rise over the next 5 years, the OIG
cannot project changes in oat with sufcient condence.
■
Fifty percent of the money orders are mailed, earning 49 cents in postage revenue per mailed money order. While we know
that users frequently mail their money orders, we do not know exactly how many are mailed. Among the 50 money order users
interviewed by the OIG, 68 percent said they mail some or all of the money orders they buy. Because many users buy multiple
money orders per month — some of which are not mailed — the OIG believed 50 percent to be a reasonable, if
conservative estimate.
Cost Assumptions
■
Volume variable costs will continue to be $1.02 per piece, which was the average money order cost between 2010 and 2015.
During that period, volume variable costs uctuated from 99 cents to $1.11 and did not have a distinct trend.
■
Product specic costs will continue to be $2.7 million, which was the average between 2010 and 2015. During that period,
product specic costs uctuated from $2.2 million to $3.2 million and did not have a distinct trend.
■
The postage on mailed money orders carries an average per-piece cost of 27 cents, which was the average attributable costs
per piece for First Class Mail single piece between 2010 and 2015.
Table 4 illustrates how these assumptions would play out over the next 5 years.
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
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Table 4: Financial Projections if Current Trends Continue
2015 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Volume 92,776,494 87,633,613 82,775,817 78,187,3 03 73,853,144 69,759,241
Average money order fee $1.30 $1.33 $1.36 $1.39 $1.42 $1.45
Estimate of mailed money orders 46,388,247 43,816,806 41, 387,9 0 8 39,093,651 36,926,572 34,879,621
Revenues
Fee revenue $120,616,369 $116,559,247 $112,581,291 $108,686,188 $104,876,979 $101,15 6,108
Interest on oat $1,669,713 $1,669,713 $1,669,713 $1,669,713 $1,669,713 $1,669,713
Escheatment $38,239,599 $ 34,189,629 $33,022,798 $31,880,271 $ 30,762,938 $29,671,518
Postage revenue $22,730,241 $21,470,235 $20,280,075 $19,155,8 89 $18,094,020 $17,091,014
TOTAL REVENUES $183,255,922 $173,888,824 $167,553,876 $161,392,061 $155,403,650 $149,588,353
Expenses
Volume Variable Cost $102,503,680 $89,586,736 $84,620,673 $79,929,893 $75,499,138 $71,313,992
Product Specic Cost $2,604,240 $2,710,551 $2,710,551 $2,710,551 $2,710,551 $2,710,551
First Class Mail Single Piece
Cost
$12,739,329 $12,033,150 $11,36 6,116 $10,736,058 $10,140,925 $9,578,783
TOTAL EXPENSES $117, 8 47, 249 $104,330,437 $98,697,339 $93,376,501 $88,350,614 $83,603,326
Contribution $65,408,673 $69,558,387 $68,856,537 $68,015,560 $67,053,036 $65,985,026
Cost Coverage 156% 167% 170% 173% 176% 179%
*Totals may not sum to due to rounding. This is an illustrative example. Actual results would depend on execution, market conditions, and other factors.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
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Executive Summary
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Observations
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With Active Management, Marketing, and Digital Channels
If the Postal Service actively managed and promoted money orders and began selling them through digital channels such as usps.
com and the My USPS app, it could lead to signicant nancial benets. These are the key assumptions the OIG used, broken out
by the channel in which the money orders are sold.
Revenue Assumptions: Post Ofce Channel
■
Volume, which is the number of money orders sold, falls by 25 percent in Year 1, as customers migrate to the online/mobile
channel. It declines another 5 percent in Year 2, remains at in Year 3, and increases by 2 percent in Years 4 and 5.
■
The average money order fee paid by customers (given the shift toward larger, more expensive money orders) increases
3 cents per year, as it did, on average, between 2010 and 2015.
■
One third of the money orders are mailed, earning 49 cents in postage revenue per mailed money order.
87
This is down from
50 percent in the status quo scenario to account for the customers who migrated to the online/mobile channel. This assumes
that those who make the switch to the online/mobile channel were among those who had already been mailing their money
orders.
■
Escheatment revenue, which is the face value of money orders that go unredeemed for 2 years, continues to average
29 percent of money order fees, as it did between 2010 and 2015.
■
“Float,” which is the interest income earned by investing the balance of outstanding money orders, remains at 2015 levels.
This income has not uctuated much in recent years — despite signicant declines in money order volume — and is highly
dependent on market interest rates. While there are indications that interest rates may rise over the next 5 years, the OIG
cannot project changes in oat with sufcient condence.
Revenue Assumptions: Online/Mobile Channel
■
Volume, which is the number of money orders sold, equals 25 percent of the 2015 volume in Year 1. It then grows by
20 percent in Year 2, 15 percent in Years 3 and 4, and 10 percent in Year 5. This growth includes both migration from the post
ofce channel and new customers who switch to postal money orders for their payment needs. The OIG believes this level of
growth is reasonable because money orders sold through this channel would give a level of convenience not available from
any other provider. The digital channel could be of particular interest to young people, who are more likely to use money orders,
but currently are less likely buy them from the Postal Service. The average money order fee paid by customers (given the shift
toward larger, more expensive money orders) increases 3 cents per year, as it did, on average, between 2010 and 2015.
■
All of the money orders purchased are mailed, generating 49 cents in postage revenue each.
■
Escheatment revenue, which is the face value of money orders that go unredeemed for 2 years, continues to average
29 percent of money order fees, as it did between 2010 and 2015.
87 At the time of this writing, 49 cents was the price of a Forever Stamp.
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
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■
“Float,” which is the interest income earned by investing the balance of outstanding money orders, remains at 2015 levels. This
income has not uctuated much in recent years and is highly dependent on market interest rates. While there are indications
that interest rates may rise over the next 5 years, the OIG cannot project changes in oat with sufcient condence.
Cost Assumptions
■
Volume variable costs for money orders sold at post ofces will remain at $1.02 per piece, which was the average between
2010 and 2015. During that period, volume variable costs uctuated from 99 cents to $1.11 and did not have a distinct trend.
■
Volume variable costs for money orders sold through the online/mobile channel will be 68 cents, which is one-third less than
the costs of money orders sold at post ofces. Given that a clerk’s time at the window comprises more than two thirds of
attributable costs on money orders sold at post ofces, these lower costs reect the efciencies potentially gained by having
money orders printed at a central facility.
■
Product specic costs will be $2.7 million, which was the average between 2010 and 2015. During that period, product specic
costs uctuated from $2.2 million to $3.2 million and did not have a distinct trend.
■
During Year 1, $750,000 will be spent on equipment for money order fullment and $250,000 will be spent on app
development.
88
This totals $1 million.
■
One million dollars per year will be spent on marketing and merchandising.
■
The postage on mailed money orders carries an average per-piece cost of 27 cents, which was the average attributable costs
per piece for First Class Mail single piece between 2010 and 2015.
Table 5 illustrates how these assumptions would play out over the next 5 years.
88 An example of the type of machine that could handle money order fulllment can be found here: http://www.pb.com/bv70/en_US/extranet/contentles/products/
downloads/APS_Edge_brochure.pdf.
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
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Table 5: Financial Projections with Active Management and Online/Mobile Channel
2015 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Volume (post ofce) 92,776,494 69,582,371 66,103,252 66,103,252 67,425,317 68,773,823
Volume (online/mobile) 23,194,124 27,832,948 32,007,890 36,809,074 40,489,981
Total volume 92,776,494 92,776,494 93,936,200 98,111,142 104,234,391 109,263,805
Average money order fee $1.30 $1.33 $1.36 $1.39 $1.42 $1.45
Estimate of mailed money orders 46,388,247 46,388,247 49, 8 67,3 6 6 54,042,308 59,28 4,180 63,414,589
Revenues
Fee revenue (post ofce) $120,616,369 $92,549,748 $89,905,358 $91,888,456 $95,748,984 $99,727,179
Fee revenue (online/mobile) $30,849,916 $37,854,888 $44,493,357 $52,271,633 $58,713,496
Interest on oat $1,669,713 $1,669,713 $1,669,713 $1,669,713 $1,669,713 $1,669,713
Escheated money orders $38,239,599 $36,196,087 $37,475,150 $40,004,063 $43,418,004 $46,474,458
Postage revenue $22,730,241 $22,730,241 $24,435,009 $26,480,731 $29,049,248 $ 31,073,149
TOTAL REVENUES $183,255,922 $183,995,704 $191,340,118 $204,536,320 $222,157,582 $237,6 57,9 9 3
Expenses
Volume variable cost (post ofce) $102,503,680 $71,133,179 $67,576,520 $67,576,520 $68,928,051 $70,306,612
Volume variable cost (online/mobile) $15,807,373 $18,968,848 $21,814,175 $25,086,301 $27,594,931
Product specic cost $2,604,240 $2,710,551 $2,710,551 $2,710,551 $2,710,551 $2,710,551
Fulllment center equipment/app
development
$1,000,000
Marketing/
merchandising $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000
First Class Mail single piece cost $12,739,329 $12,739,329 $13,694,779 $14,841,318 $16,280,863 $17,415,172
TOTAL EXPENSES $117,8 47, 24 9 $104,390,432 $103,950,698 $107, 9 42,5 6 5 $114,0 05,765 $119,027,266
Contribution $65,408,673 $79,605,272 $87,389,420 $96,593,755 $108,151,817 $118,630,727
Cost coverage 156% 176% 184% 189% 195% 200%
*Totals may not sum to due to rounding. This is an illustrative example. Actual results would depend on execution, market conditions, and other factors.
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Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
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Comparing the Two Scenarios
To assess the potential nancial impact of active strategic management and the online/mobile channel for money orders, the OIG
compared the two scenarios, as shown in the tables below.
Table 6: Projected Volume Impact of Improvements
Scenario Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative
Status quo 87,633,613 82,775,817 78,187,3 03 73,853,144 69,759,241 392, 209,117
Active management
and online/mobile
channel
92,776,494 93,936,200 98,111,142 104,234,391 109,263,805 498,322,032
Volume difference 5,142,881 11,160,384 19,923,840 30,381,247 39,504,563 106,112,915
Table 7: Projected Revenue Impact of Improvements
Scenario Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative
Status quo $173,888,824 $167,553,876 $161,392,061 $155,403,650 $149,588,353 $807,826,764
Active management
and online/mobile
channel
$183,995,704 $191,340,118 $204,536,320 $222,157,582 $2 37,6 57, 9 9 3 $1,039,687,718
Revenue difference $10,106,881 $23,786,241 $43,144,258 $66,753,932 $88,069,641 $231,860,953
Table 8: Projected Contribution Impact of Improvements
Scenario Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Cumulative
Status quo $69,558,387 $68,856,537 $68,015,560 $67,053,036 $65,985,026 $339,468,547
Active
management and
online/mobile
channel
$79,605,272 $ 87,38 9,420 $96,593,755 $10 8,151,817 $118,630,727 $490,370,991
Contribution
difference
$10,046,885 $18,532,883 $28,578,195 $41,098,781 $52,645,701 $150,902,444
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
36
Executive Summary
Table of Contents
Observations
Appendices
Print
Appendix E:
Management’s Comments
Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
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Executive Summary
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Appendices
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Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
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Executive Summary
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Modernizing the Postal Money Order
Report Number RARC-WP-16-007
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Executive Summary
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