Human Journals
Research Article
March 2017 Vol.:6, Issue:1
© All rights are reserved by Amina Amrin et al.
An Analysis of the Status of Two Child Policy in
Bangladesh
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Keywords: Two Child Policy, Logistic Regression, Odds
Ratio
ABSTRACT
Bangladesh is an overpopulated country. To control excessive
population growth, government of Bangladesh introduced the
two child policy. The two-child policy is a government-
imposed limit of two children allowed per family. But still
many couples are having more than two children. In this
paper, an analysis on the status of two child policy has been
performed. It has been found that although majority of the
families are satisfied with two children, there exist some
families who desire more than two children. It has been found
that region, place of residence, academic qualification,
religion, sex of children of the respondent have significant
effects on the fertility preference of women with two
children.
Amina Amrin
Institute of Statistical Research and Training, Dhaka-
1000, Bangladesh
Submission: 3 March 2017
Accepted: 7 March 2017
Published: 25 March 2017
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Citation: Amina Amrin et al. Ijsrm.Human, 2017; Vol. 6 (1): 1-8.
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INTRODUCTION
Bangladesh with a population of over 16 million people is the 8
th
most populous country in
the world. For the past few decades, overpopulation has been a burden for Bangladesh.
Overpopulation is the major cause of scarcity of natural resources such as land areas, water
sources and forest areas in Bangladesh. To overcome the problem of overpopulation,
Bangladesh government adopted the two child policy three decades ago. A two-child
policy is a government-imposed limit of two children allowed per family. This policy was
first introduced in China to control rapid population growth, and it proved to be successful in
controlling overpopulation. Although the two child policy is heavily promoted in Bangladesh,
there are still many couples who have more than two children resulting in overpopulation in
Bangladesh. In this paper, we will analyze the status of the two child policy in Bangladesh
and determine the factors affecting the birth of more than two children per couple.
A lot of studies have been conducted on the fertility of Bangladeshi women. Findings from
those studies indicate women living in rural areas give birth to more than two children, and as
a result, family size is larger in rural areas than urban areas [Khan et al, 1997]. Education
plays a vital role on family size in Bangladesh. Studies revealed that educated mothers desire
fewer children than uneducated mothers [Islam et al, 1993]. Men who are highly educated
prefer to keep family size smaller than uneducated men. Financial status of a family also
plays a crucial role on family size [Kamal 2012]. Normally families belonging to low income
group have more children than middle class and rich families [Rahman et al]. Religion is a
key factor in determining family size. Muslim families have more children than non-Muslim
families. Employed women desire fewer children than non-employed women as they wish to
concentrate more on career [Fukuda-Parr et al., 2003]. Death of children is also a significant
factor in determining fertility among married couple. Couple who has faced the loss of
children are more inclined to have more than two children than couple who faced no such
loss [Rabbi, 2014].
Although many studies have been conducted on family size of Bangladesh, none of them
involves the determination of factors influencing the birth of more than two children per
family. In this study, we tried to determine the factors that significantly influence a couple’s
decision to have another children despite already having two children. A binary logistic
regression model has been adopted for this study.
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MATERIALS AND METHODS
Source of the Data
The data for this study has been obtained from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey
for the year 2014, which is the seventh nationally representative survey designed to provide
information on basic national indicators of social progress. Detailed information about this
survey can be found in BDHS report 2014.
Variables under Study
The dependent variable for this study is the fertility preference of mothers who have two
children. It takes on the value 0 if a mother with two children desires no more children, and
takes on the value 1 if a mother with two children desires another child.
A set of predictor variables has been selected from the BDHS data to estimate the statistical
relationship between the fertility preference of mothers with two children and the predictor
variables. The predictor variables include- Region, place of residence, religion financial
status, academic qualifications, husband’s academic qualifications, death of children, sex of
the children of the respondent, and also the respondent’s exposure to mass media.
Methodology
In this study, the dependent variable is a discrete variable. To model discrete data generalized
linear model is used. The GLM generalizes linear regression by allowing the linear model to
be related to the response variable via a link function and by allowing the magnitude of the
variance of each measurement to be a function of its predicted value.
Logistic regression is used to model categorical data. Logistic regression was developed by
statistician David Cox in 1958. The dependent variable under this study is a categorical
variable. It can only take two values 0 and 1. Thus, it is a binary variable. Binary logistic
regression model is used to model binary data. Logistic regression measures the relationship
between the categorical dependent variable and one or more independent variables by
estimating probabilities using a logistic function, which is the cumulative logistic
distribution.
Logistic regression can be seen as a special case of the generalized linear model and thus
analogous to linear regression. The model of logistic regression, however, is based on quite
different assumptions (about the relationship between dependent and independent variables)
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from those of linear regression. In particular, the key differences between these two models
can be seen in the following two features of logistic regression. First, the conditional
distribution is a Bernoulli distribution rather than a Gaussian distribution, because the
dependent variable is binary. Second, the predicted values are probabilities and are therefore
restricted to (0,1) through the logistic distribution function because logistic regression
predicts the probability of particular outcomes.
The logistic regression model is written as:
+ +…+
(1)
Here, Y is the dependent variable which follows Bernoulli distribution with probability p,
..., are the p predictor variables. is the constant term and are
regression coefficients.
The term is known as the logit or log odds.
The maximum likelihood estimates of and are given below:
(3)
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS:
From the data, we find the number of women who have two children is 2664(33.78%). Our
study is based on those women among these 2664 women who have decided on their family
size. We find among this 2664 women, 580 women desire to have another child and 1850
women are satisfied with two children.
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Table 1: Fertility Preference of Mothers with Two Children by Different Socio
Economic Factors
Want No More
Children
Region
Dhaka
77.5% (327)
Chittagong
63.3% (271)
Barisal
76.2% (211)
Khulna
83.9% (264)
Rajshahi
87.4% (297)
Rangpur
87% (274)
Sylhet
61.9 (206)
Place of Residence
Rural
74% (1215)
Urban
80.8% (635)
Financial Status
Poor
76% (696)
Middle Class
74.4% (358)
Rich
77.1 (796)
Academic
Qualification of
Respondent
No Education
74.4% (183)
Primary/Secondary
75.3% (1435)
Higher Education
83.5% (232)
Husband’s Academic
Qualifications
No Education
76% (265)
Primary/Secondary
75% (1095)
Higher Education
81.2% (323)
Religion
Islam
74.9% (1659)
Others
25.2% (557)
Sex of Children
Two Sons
72.1% (458)
Two Daughters
55.8% (317)
One Son and One Daughter
87.6% (1075)
Death of Children
No Death
76.2% (1638)
More Than One Death
23.9% (513)
Heard about Family
Planning
No
75% (1430)
Yes
80.4% (419)
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The above table illustrates the fertility preference of mothers who have two children by
different socio-economic factors. The table shows that the percentage of mothers wanting
another children despite having two children is lower than the percentage of mothers with
two children who don’t desire any more children for all seven districts. Compared with rural
mothers with two children, the proportion of urban mothers with two children wanting
another child is lower. The desire for a third child is higher among poor mothers with two
children than middle class and rich mothers with two children. The desire to have another
child despite having two children is low for educated parents than uneducated parents.
Compared with non-Muslim mothers, Muslim mothers want another child despite having two
children. The percentage of women wanting another child despite having two children is
much higher for women with two daughters than women with two sons and women with one
son and one daughter. The likelihood of a woman who has two children wanting another
children is lower for women who has family planning knowledge than those women who lack
this knowledge.
Next, we fit a logistic regression model and determine the significant factors influencing the
desire for more children among mothers with two children.
Table 2: Results from Logistic Regression Model
Adjusted Odds Ratio
Region
Dhaka
Chittagong
1.6***
Barisal
0.8
Khulna
1.8***
Rajshahi
0.3***
Rangpur
0.4***
Sylhet
1.90***
Place of Residence
Rural
Urban
0.7***
Financial Status
Poor
Middle Class
1.1
Rich
1.0
Academic Qualification
of Respondent
No Education
Primary/Secondary
0.9
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Higher Education
0.5*
Husband’s Academic
Qualifications
No Education
Primary/Secondary
1.0
Higher Education
1.0
Religion
Islam
Others
0.3***
Sex of Children
Two Sons
Two Daughters
2.2***
One Son and One
Daughter
0.4***
Death of Children
No Death
More Than One Death
0.9
Heard about Family
Planning
No
Yes
0.9
Constant Term
0.6***
Note: ***, **, * indicates p-value is less than 0.01, 0.05 and 0.10 respectively.
Among the seven districts, except Barisal, all other districts have been found to have
significant effect on the fertility preference of mothers with two children. The odds of
wanting another child despite having two children is significantly 30% lower for urban
women compared with rural women. The odds for the desire of a third child is significantly
50% lower for highly educated mothers compared with uneducated mothers. The odds of
wanting to have another child despite having two children is significantly 70% lower for
women belonging to religion other than Islam. Sex of current children plays a significant role
in the fertility preference of women with two children. The odds of wanting another child is
significantly 2.2 times higher for mothers with two daughters compared with mothers with
two sons. The odds of wanting another child is significantly 60% lower for mothers with one
son and daughter compared with mothers with two sons. The constant term indicates, in the
absence of all predictor variables the odds of wanting another children despite having two
children is 0.6.
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CONCLUSION
To control excessive growth of population, Bangladesh government undertook the two child
policy almost three decades ago. From this study, we can say that this policy has been
successful in controlling population growth in Bangladesh. Majority of women under this
study desire no more than two children. But there are still some women who desire another
child despite having two children. Region, place of residence, academic qualification,
religion, sex of current children of the respondent have significant effect on a woman’s
fertility preference. From this study, we can say that compared with urban women, rural
women desire more children. Highly educated women do not want to take a third child. They
are satisfied with two children. Sex of the current children of a woman plays a significant role
in determining whether the woman wants another child despite having two children. It can be
seen that mothers who have two daughters want another children more than mothers who
have two sons and mothers who have both son and daughter. It indicates that still,
Bangladeshi families desires a male heir.
From this study, we can say that Bangladesh government needs to promote the two child
policy more in rural areas since having more than two children is still very common in rural
areas. To stop overpopulation government can promote girl’s education nationwide. An
uneducated mother is more conscious about family size than uneducated women. Since in
Bangladesh, many families consider them incomplete if they do not have a male heir,
government should take steps to convince families that a female child can be as beneficial to
its parents as a male child.
The findings from the above study can be helpful for the family planning ministry of
Bangladesh to implement new measures in controlling population.
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Med, 44(3):279-89, 1997.
2. Islam SM, Khan HT, Khan HM., Factors affecting fertility in a rural area of Bangladesh, Bangladesh J Sci
Res., 11(1):21-6, 1993.
3. S Fukuda-Parr, N Birdsall, and J Sachs. Millennium development goals: A compact among nations to end
human poverty. Human Development Report 2003.
4. Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi, Factors influencing fertility preference of a developing country during
demographic transition: Evidence from Bangladesh, South East Asia Journal of Public Health, 4(2):23-30, 2014.