The Impact of
the Coronavirus on
Food Insecurity in 2020 & 2021
March 2021
Updated analysis of how national food insecurity levels may have increased in 2020
because of COVID-19 and new analysis of projected food insecurity levels in 2021.
Introduction
In early 2020, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) began to spread across
the United States, and one of the results was an economic recession that
ended years of declining rates of food insecurity – the lack of access to
sufficient food because of limited financial resources. This brief provides a
snapshot of food insecurity at the national level leading up to the COVID-
19 pandemic, what transpired in the first year of the pandemic, and what
may happen in the next year and beyond.
1
KEY FINDINGS
1. Feeding America projects that 42 million people (1 in 8),
including 13 million children (1 in 6), may experience food
insecurity in 2021.
2. This is a slight improvement from our updated 2020
projections (45 million people and 15 million children).
3. Many people who have been most impacted by the
pandemic were food insecure or at risk of food insecurity
before COVID-19 and are facing greater hardship since
COVID-19.
4. Significant racial disparities in food insecurity which
existed before COVID-19 remain in the wake of the
pandemic. Feeding America projects that 21% of Black
individuals (1 in 5) may experience food insecurity in 2021,
compared to 11% of white individuals (1 in 9).
5. It will likely take time for food insecurity levels to recover.
In 2019, the overall food insecurity rate was the lowest it
had been in more than twenty years.
• 1 in 9 individuals (10.9%) and 1 in 7 children (14.6%) lived in a food-insecure
household.
Yet , more than 35 million people overall, including nearly
11 million children, were food insecure.
1 in 12 white, non-Hispanic individuals
(8.1%) lived in a food-insecure household,
Food insecurity is experienced in greater proportion by these racial and ethnic
groups due to a number of factors – a key one being structural racism and
discrimination. These disparities are also apparent in the underlying factors that
contribute to food insecurity.
3
While the overall poverty rate in 2019 was 10.5%,
poverty among white individuals was 9.1% compared to 18.8% for Black
individuals and 15.7% for Latino individuals. More research is needed to untangle
the complex relationship between systemic racism and food insecurity.
Compared to:
1 in 4 Native American individuals (23.5%)
1 in 6 Latino individuals (15.8%)
1 in 5 Black, non-Hispanic individuals (19.3%)
2
The Impact of the Coronavirus on Food Insecurity in 2020 & 2021
FOOD INSECURITY
BEFORE COVID-19
Two factors that influence food insecurity rates include
unemployment and poverty, which were both at recent
lows heading into the pandemic.
• The overall unemployment rate was 3.7% at the end of 2019 and the overall
poverty rate was 10.5%.
However, underlying these national figures, significant
disparities existed.
2
On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the spread of COVID-
19 a global pandemic. In the days and weeks that followed, cities and states
across the U.S. issued stay-at-home mandates and ordered the closure of non-
essential businesses in an effort to curb transmission of the virus.
The result of the COVID-19 pandemic was the first economic recession in the
United States since the Great Recession of 2007. Within weeks, tens of millions of
people lost jobs or saw declines in hours worked. For the week ending March 28,
2020, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance was nearly 7
million, a record high. The official unemployment rate for April rose to 14.7%,
reflecting the largest monthly increase and the highest rate since 1948 when such
data was first collected.
Before the start of the pandemic, the overall food
insecurity rat e had reached its lowest point since it began to be measured in
the 1990s, but those improvements were being upended by the pandemic.
To understand how COVID-19 has impacted the need for food in the United
States, Feeding America, in partnership with Dr. Craig Gundersen, has leveraged
our annual Map the Meal Gap (MMG) study, the source for local-level estimates of
food insecurity. The same model that is used to estimate local food insecurity can
also predict food insecurity using projected changes to variables in the model.
To predict changes in food insecurity as a result of COVID-19, we have used
projected changes to unemployment and poverty, two variables that have a
statistically significant and substantial effect on food insecurity estimates and are
likely to be most directly affected by COVID-19.
4
Feeding America first released
food insecurity projections for 2020 in the spring of 2020, and then released
updated projections in October 2020 as it became evident that economic
conditions would be more positive than experts originally predicted.
3
The Impact of the Coronavirus on Food Insecurity in 2020 & 2021
FOOD INSECURITY IN 2020
Feeding America estimates
that 45 million people (1 in 7),
including 15 million children
(1 in 5), may have experienced
food insecurity in 2020.
5
Feeding America projects that 42 million people (1 in 8),
including 13 million children (1 in 6), may experience food
insecurity in 2021.
This reflects an improvement relative to our updated 2020 projections, which can
be attributed to the economic situation - actual unemployment and estimated
poverty levels have been lower than many experts originally predicted – as well as
the federal response, which has played an important role in mitigating the crisis.
While the improvements are good news, food insecurity levels that we are
projecting are still elevated compared to before COVID-19. Further, the pandemic
and economic crisis have not been evenly experienced across the U.S. population.
Many people who have been most impacted were food insecure or at risk of food
insecurity before COVID and are facing greater hardship since COVID.
4
The Impact of the Coronavirus on Food Insecurity in 2020 & 2021
FOOD INSECURITY IN 2021
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Overall Food Insec urity Rate Child Food Insecurity Rate
Food Insecurity Trends & Projections
Projections
As mentioned on page 2, significant racial disparities in food insecurity existed
before COVID, and these have not diminished. The economic recovery is likely to
be slower for communities of color overall, and for Black communities in
particular. For the first time, Feeding America has projected how food insecurity
levels may differ by race, for Black individuals and white individuals.
.
Feeding America projects that 21.6%
of Black individuals (1 in 5) may have
experienced food insecurity in 2020,
compared to 12.3% of white
individuals (1 in 8). For 2021, our
projections for Black individuals are
largely unchanged (21.3%, 1 in 5), but
slightly improved for white individuals
(11.1%, 1 in 9). (In 2019, food insecurity
among Black and white individuals
was 19.3% and 9.6%, respectively.)
6
5
Food insecurity projections by race
The Impact of the Coronavirus on Food Insecurity in 2020 & 2021
FOOD INSECURITY IN 2021
Food insecurity among Black and white individuals
Black individuals
White individuals
Overall
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2019 2020 2021
(Actual)
(Projections)
(Projections)
Feeding America projects that food
insecurity among individuals living in
rural communities may have been
14.4% in 2020 and may be 13.3% in
2021 (compared to 12.5% in 2019).
Among individuals living in urban
communities, Feeding America
projects that 13.1% may have
experienced food insecurity in 2020
and 12.1% may experience food
insecurity in 2021 (compared to 10.6%
in 2019).
6
Food insecurity projections by geography
The Impact of the Coronavirus on Food Insecurity in 2020 & 2021
FOOD INSECURITY IN 2021
Projections of very low food security
Very low food security
is the
more severe range of food
insecurity that involves reduced
food intake and disrupted eating
patterns. Like overall food
insecurity, the prevalence of very
low food security has likely risen
since the start of the COVID-19
pandemic.
Feeding America projects that
17 million people (5.1%) may
have experienced very low food
security in 2020, and 15 million
people (4.6%) may experience it
in 2021.
National projections of food insecurity by select characteristics for 2020 and 2021
Actuals
Projections
2019 2020 2021
INDICATORS/ASSUMPTIONS
7
Annual Unemployment Rate
3.7% 9.2% 6.7%
Annual Poverty Rate
10.5% 11.1% 12.0%
Annual Child Poverty Rate
14.4% 14.8% 16.0%
FOOD INSECURITY PROJECTIONS
OVERALL POPULATION
Food Insecurity
Annual Food Insecurity Rate
10.9% 13.9% 12.9%
Number of Food-insecure People
35.2 million 45 million 42 million
Ratio
1 in 9 1 in 7 1 in 8
Very low food security (VLFS) [a subset within food insecurity]
Annual VLFS Rate
3.7% 5.1% 4.6%
Number of people experiencing VLFS
11.8 million 17 million 15 million
Ratio
1 in 27 1 in 20 1 in 22
CHILD POPULATION
Food Insecurity
Annual Food Insecurity Rate
14.6% 19.9% 17.9%
Number of Food-insecure People
10.7 million 15 million 13 million
Ratio
1 in 7 1 in 5 1 in 6
Very low food security (VLFS) [a subset within food insecurity]
Annual VLFS Rate
3.9% 5.7% 5.1%
Number of people experiencing VLFS
2.9 million 4.2 million 3.7 million
Ratio
1 in 26 1 in 18 1 in 20
BY RACE
Food Insecurity – Black Individuals
Annual Food Insecurity Rate
19.3% 21.6% 21.3%
Number of Food-insecure People
9.0 million 10 million 10 million
Ratio
1 in 5 1 in 5 1 in 5
Food Insecurity – white Individuals
Annual Food Insecurity Rate
9.6% 12.3% 11.1%
Number of Food-insecure People
23.6 million 31 million 28 million
Ratio
1 in 10 1 in 8 1 in 9
BY GEOGRAPHY
Food Insecurity – Individuals in Rural Counties
Annual Food Insecurity Rate
12.5% 14.4% 13.3%
Number of Food-insecure People
5.4 million 6 million 6 million
Ratio
1 in 8 1 in 7 1 in 8
Food Insecurity – Individuals in Urban Counties
Annual Food Insecurity Rate
10.6% 13.1% 12.1%
Number of Food-insecure People
29.8 million 37 million 34 million
Ratio
1 in 9 1 in 8 1 in 8
7
The Impact of the Coronavirus on Food Insecurity in 2020 & 2021
FOOD INSECURITY
IN 2020 & 2021
As compared to 2019 actuals
It is good news that overall, food insecurity in 2020 may have
been lower than originally anticipated, and that food insecurity
in 2021 looks likely to improve relative to 2020. Without the
response from federal and local governments and the
generosity of the private sector – individuals, corporations,
foundations and communities – more people would have faced
hardship in the past year. Thanks to that generosity, the
charitable food sector, including the 200 Feeding America
member food banks, were able to rise to the occasion to
provide food and benefits assistance to tens of millions of
people, many for the first time. During 2020, the Feeding
America network distributed 6.1 billion meals (7.5 billion pounds
of food), a 44% increase over the previous year, because of the
food bankers, volunteers, and partner agencies that stood on
the front line to ensure their neighbors had the food they
needed.
However, the pandemic is not yet over, and the future remains
tenuous for people who have experienced uncertain access to
enough food for their families. It is likely that it will take time for
food insecurity levels to recover. After the Great Recession, it
took nearly ten years, until 2018, for food insecurity to pre-
recession levels, and even then, 37 million people were still at
risk of hunger. While it may be likely that economic conditions
will improve more quickly for some this time around, it will take
continued support and public-private partnership across the
government, the private sector, and the charitable food system
to achieve our vision of an America where no one is hungry.
Contributors:
Monica Hake | Adam Dewey | Emily Engelhard
Mark Strayer | Sena Dawes | Tom Summerfelt
Analyses by Dr. Craig Gundersen
Additional Information:
• How Feeding America is Responding to
COVID-19
• Feeding America’s Hub for Advocacy
Resources during COVID-19
• Feeding America Research about Food
Insecurity During COVID-19
For questions or information, contact research@feedingamerica.org.
LOOKING AHEAD
NOTES AND REFERENCES
1
Local projections for 2020 (updated) and 2021 (new) will be released between late
March and April 2021.
2
With the exception of Native Americans, all estimates are according to Statistical
Supplement
to Household Food Security in the United States in 2019. Native A merican
includes American In di an or Alaska Native. Due to smaller sample sizes these rates
reflect five-year averages using the CPS (2015-2019) while other rates reflect 2019 data
only.
3
Odoms-Young, A., & Bruce, M. A. (2018). Examining the Impact of Structural Racism on
Food Insecurity: Implications for Addressing Racial/Ethnic Disparities. Family &
community health, 41 Suppl 2 Suppl , Food Insecurity and Obesity (Suppl 2 FOOD
INSECURITY AND OBESITY), S3–S6.
https://doi.org/10.1097/FCH.0000000000000183
4
Although MMG accounts for several economic and demographic variables, our food
insecurity projections have been based on projected changes to unemployment and
poverty. This is because these two variables have a statistically significant effect on food
insecurity estimates and are likely to be most directly affected by COVID-19. Other
variables in the model are held constant using 2019 data.
5
Feeding America last issued 2020 food insecurity projections in October 2020, which
can be found at https://www.feedingamerica.org/research/coronavirus-hunger-
research. The USDA will release food insecurity estimates for 2020 based on the Current
Population Survey in September 2021.
6
Feeding America’s food insecurity projections by race for Black and white individuals
include both Hispanic and non-Hispanic individuals. The disparities between these
populations would be greater if white non-Hispanic and Latino (Hispanic) could be
presented as separate categories.
7
The rates and assumptions listed for unemployment and poverty are relevant to
projections for the overall population and for ch il dren only. Contact Feeding America for
information about indicators/assumptions related to projections by race an d
geography.
9
The Impact of the Coronavirus on Food Insecurity in 2020 & 2021
