Colin Brown
Director of Campaigns and Political Engagement
The Motorcycle Action Group
Dr. Jessica Andersson-Hudson
Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science
Lund University
Motorcycle and
Car Driving
Licence Holders
AGE DEMOGRAPHIC AND GB REGIONAL
COMPARISON
1
Contents
Introduction............................................................................................................................................. 2
Routes to licensed status in the UK ...................................................................................................... 2
Licence Holders by age and region .................................................................................................... 3
Licence holders and registered vehicles ............................................................................................ 8
Age at achieving licence ..................................................................................................................... 9
Direct Access ........................................................................................................................................ 11
Motorcycle Compulsory Basic Training ............................................................................................. 13
Casualties .............................................................................................................................................. 14
Discussion .............................................................................................................................................. 17
Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................... 19
Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 19
2
Introduction
This report examines the age demographic of licence holders for cars and
motorcycles along with any regional variation within GB. The analysis draws on
Government-published data sets and data obtained from the Driver and Vehicle
Licensing Agency (DVLA) through Freedom of Information (FOI) requests.
The primary interest of the analysis is to establish any differences in demographic that
may suggest entry to motorcycling is suppressed, what potential there may be for
encouraging modal shift from cars to motorcycles, and whether there are any
potential entry or safety implications resulting from differences in the licensing
regimes for the two vehicle classes.
Routes to licensed status in the UK
There is a significant difference for the prospective licence holder between the
pathways for obtaining a car and a motorcycle licence in the UK.
For a car driving licence the process is straightforward, linear and consistent for all.
In basic terms, apply for a provisional licence, theory test, practical test, drive any
car. Leaving aside variable training costs, the licence process has a cost of £119 -
£141. The higher cost applies if applying for a provisional licence on a paper form as
opposed to online and/or taking the practical test at a weekend or evening, as
opposed to a weekday.
Motorcycle licences come in a variety of formats depending on the type of
motorcycle/moped, and the route to achieving those licences varies dependent on
both age and the applicant’s car licence status. The complexity of approach is
clearly demonstrated in the Department for Transport (DfT) five-page document
containing flow charts for five different scenarios
(https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/atta
chment_data/file/1056066/how-to-get-a-motorcycle-licence.pdf).
The costs for obtaining a motorcycle licence varies in each of the five scenarios but,
for example, for a 17-year-old to get an A1 licence, again leaving aside any variable
training costs (but including the mandatory Compulsory Basic Training (CBT)) is £373
- £461. The CBT is mandatory but does not have a fixed price. It must be delivered
by a registered training body, but the price is set by the individual training body.
3
Licence Holders by age and region
We obtained data for numbers of car and motorcycle licence holders by age bands
and postcode area by FOI request from the DVLA. This data was sorted by region.
The data covers Great Britain.
Figure 1: Car licence holders
Region
16-24
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-70
Total
East
Midlands
192,762
521,665
569,102
592,008
270,166
3,030,417
6.36%
17.21%
18.78%
19.54%
8.92%
100.00%
East of
England
269,510
771,193
830,196
840,220
381,349
4,357,684
6.18%
17.70%
19.05%
19.28%
8.75%
100.00%
London
213,484
1,122,929
1,072,995
952,694
366,244
4,946,073
4.32%
22.70%
21.69%
19.26%
7.40%
100.00%
North East
98,848
273,562
294,327
329,935
157,404
1,611,510
6.13%
16.98%
18.26%
20.47%
9.77%
100.00%
North West
269,955
809,819
858,992
907,509
411,910
4,560,856
5.92%
17.76%
18.83%
19.90%
9.03%
100.00%
Scotland
210,456
592,625
659,207
727,188
337,148
3,465,219
6.07%
17.10%
19.02%
20.99%
9.73%
100.00%
South East
381,927
1,128,585
1,240,018
1,246,247
556,290
6,332,273
6.03%
17.82%
19.58%
19.68%
8.78%
100.00%
South West
233,610
629,150
704,454
781,744
378,490
3,917,547
5.96%
16.06%
17.98%
19.95%
9.66%
100.00%
Wales
145,016
348,009
386,804
429,736
207,381
2,165,374
6.70%
16.07%
17.86%
19.85%
9.58%
100.00%
West
Midlands
223,089
630,223
667,075
670,827
306,869
3,538,972
6.30%
17.81%
18.85%
18.96%
8.67%
100.00%
Yorkshire &
the Humber
210,512
582,908
626,014
651,676
300,000
3,337,598
6.31%
17.46%
18.76%
19.53%
8.99%
100.00%
4
Figure 2: Motorcycle licence holders
Region
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-70
Over 70
Total
East Midlands
1,466
16,268
28,734
56,171
85,005
32,379
77,576
297,599
0.49%
5.47%
9.66%
18.87%
28.56%
10.88%
26.07%
100.00%
East of
England
2,212
23,551
44,359
79,153
112,247
43,141
116,527
421,190
0.53%
5.59%
10.53%
18.79%
26.65%
10.24%
27.67%
100.00%
London
1,676
24,435
52,925
74,878
78,692
25,895
44,179
302,680
0.55%
8.07%
17.49%
24.74%
26.00%
8.56%
14.60%
100.00%
North East
424
6,439
12,753
23,604
29,305
15,270
33,207
121,002
0.35%
5.32%
10.54%
19.51%
24.22%
12.62%
27.44%
100.00%
North West
1,411
18,366
33,579
63,977
101,319
40,023
89,650
348,325
0.41%
5.27%
9.64%
18.37%
29.09%
11.49%
25.74%
100.00%
Scotland
955
13,774
27,599
51,255
72,104
24,360
45,931
235,978
0.40%
5.84%
11.70%
21.72%
30.56%
10.32%
19.46%
100.00%
South East
3,546
34,562
65,137
119,361
174,364
68,100
171,637
636,707
0.56%
5.43%
10.23%
18.75%
27.39%
10.70%
26.96%
100.00%
South West
2,295
23,829
41,305
80,441
127,906
53,541
135,243
464,560
0.49%
5.13%
8.89%
17.32%
27.53%
11.53%
29.11%
100.00%
Wales
798
9,917
18,290
36,178
54,863
21,867
48,910
190,823
0.42%
5.20%
9.58%
18.96%
28.75%
11.46%
25.63%
100.00%
West
Midlands
1,247
15,669
27,493
53,810
80,587
30,991
81,360
291,157
0.43%
5.38%
9.44%
18.48%
27.68%
10.64%
27.94%
100.00%
Yorkshire &
the Humber
1,239
14,375
26,632
52,811
83,567
35,117
77,568
291,309
0.43%
4.93%
9.14%
18.13%
28.69%
12.05%
26.63%
100.00%
5
The number of licence holders will naturally be influenced by eligible population size.
We therefore calculated the number of licence holders per head of population in
each age range. For this analysis we used 2021 census data which applies to
England and Wales.
(https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationand
migration/populationestimates/datasets/populationandhouseholdestimatesenglan
dandwalescensus2021/census2021/census2021firstresultsenglandwales1.xlsx)
We were thus unable to calculate these figures for Scotland.
Figure 3: Car licence holders as a proportion of population by age range
Note that for some regions and age bands the number of licence holders exceeds
the estimated population. We have been unable to ascertain the reason for this, but
possible explanations are underestimations of the population, or licences being
registered to incorrect addresses. The total number of licence holders for all of
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 70 Over 70
Car licence holders as proportion of population by age range
East Midlands East of England London
North East North West South East
South West Wales West Midlands
Yorkshire & the Humber England and Wales Average
6
England and Wales does remain within the total population estimate for all age
bands.
Figure 4: Motorcycle licence holders as a proportion of population by age range
It should be noted that there is a significant difference in the overall percentage of
the population that hold car and motorcycle licences. Car licences are held by
77.83% of all eligible members of the population. Motorcycle licences are held by
just 6.93% of the eligible members of the population.
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 70 Over 70
Motorcycle licence holders as proportion of population by age
range
East Midlands East of England London
North East North West South East
South West Wales West Midlands
Yorkshire & the Humber England and Wales Average
7
For a direct comparison between car and motorcycle licence holder age profile, we
calculated the number of car and motorcycle licence holders in each age band as
a proportion of the total number of car and motorcycle licence holders:
Figure 5: Licence holders by age range as proportion of total licence holders
It should be noted that the age span for the age bands is not consistent, thus
comparisons between age bands should be made with care.
5.94%
15.21%
17.96%
19.17%
19.70%
8.90%
13.13%
0.48%
5.59%
10.52%
19.21%
27.77%
10.85%
25.60%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 70 Over 70
Licence holder by age range as proportion of total
licence holders
GB Car Average GB Motorcycle Average
8
Licence holders and registered vehicles
We next looked at the number of licence holders in relation to the number of
registered vehicles. The registered vehicle data used was the Q4 2021 figure from
the DfT Table VEH0105
(https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/atta
chment_data/file/1105261/veh0105.ods)
Figure 6: Licence holders per registered vehicle, by region
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Licence holders per registered vehicle by region
Car licence holders per car Motorcycle licence holders per motorcycle
9
Age at achieving licence
The age of individuals achieving test passes is published by the Driver and Vehicle
Standards Agency (DVSA). Data for our analysis was drawn from Table DRT0203 for
car licences, and table Table DRT0423 for motorcycle licences. Figures for
motorcycles are for Module 2 test passes which is the final test for full licence status.
All figures are for 2021/22.
Figure 7: Proportion of licences attained by age 2021/22
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
17 and under
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60 and over
Proportion of licences attained by age 2021/22
Car proportion of total Motorcycle proportion of total
10
There is some question over whether pandemic effects have fully ended, so we ran
comparison figures for the 2018/19 data
Figure 8: Proportion of licences attained by age (2018/19 and 2015/16)
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
17 and under
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60 and over
Proportion of licences attained by age (2018/19 and
2015/16)
Car 2018/19 Motorcycle 2018/19 Car 2015/16 Motorcycle 2015/16
11
Direct Access
The direct access route allows riders of 24+ years of age to progress from CBT to a full
A licence allowing the rider to ride any size of motorcycle. The Direct Access Scheme
(DAS) route was introduced in 2013. The peak age for achieving a motorcycle
licence is 24.
We looked at the proportion of licences obtained at the peak age of 24 across the
timeline from 2011/12 to 2021/22.
Figure 9: Proportion of total motorcycle licences gained at age 24
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
2021/ 22
2020/ 21
2019/ 2 0
2018/ 19
2017/ 18
2016/ 17
2015/ 16
2014/ 15
2013/ 14
2012/ 13
2011/ 12
2010/ 11
PROPORTION OF TOTAL MOTORCYCLE
LICENCES GAINED AT AGE 24
12
Prior to the introduction of DAS, the peak age for achieving a motorcycle licence
was 21. The below results compare the age at test pre- and post-introduction of the
DAS using figures from 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Figure 10: Proportion of motorcycle licences attained by age (2015/16 and 2010/11)
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
17 and under
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60 and over
Proportion of motorcycle licences attained by age
(2015/16 and 2010/11)
Motorcycle 2015/16 Motorcycle 2010/11
13
Motorcycle Compulsory Basic Training
Compulsory Basic Training (CBT) was introduced in 1990. Data for test passes is not
available back to 1990. CBT is also administered on a paper-based system meaning
the only published data available is the number of CBT certificates sold to training
schools. It is reasonable to assume that sales of certificates closely represent numbers
of CBTs completed, but there is no demographic detail for the students.
We accessed DVSA data for the number of certificates issued, combined with the
number of full licences attained to calculate a conversion rate from CBT to full
licence holder.
(https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/atta
chment_data/file/1097582/ins0503.ods)
Figure 11: CBT to full licence conversion
On average for every five CBT’s taken, only one full motorcycle licence is obtained.
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
2011/ 12
2012/ 1 3
2013/ 14
2014/ 15
2015/ 16
2016/ 17
2017/ 18
2018/ 19
2019/ 2 0
2020/ 21
2021/ 22
CBT - FULL LICENCE CONVERSION
14
We asked the DVSA for any age demographic data that they could supply. They
were able to provide the following data:
Figure 12: CBT certificates by age range (April 2021 to March 2022)
Current Age
(groups)
Count of
CERTIFICATE_
NUMBER
% of CBT
by age
A -16 & 17
10,681
6.1%
B - 18 to 23
36,240
20.8%
C - 24 & Over
127,043
72.9%
Other
241
0.1%
174,205
Casualties
It is a recognised fact that young drivers and riders are statistically higher risk groups.
The need to attain a minimum standard is self-evident. We have therefore looked
to compare any possible safety impacts of the differing licensing regimes.
We extracted data for car driver and motorcycle rider casualties including numbers
for killed or seriously injured (KSIs). We restricted the data to drivers and riders,
excluding passengers and pillions in order to give a closer relationship to the licence
status of the vehicle operator rather than the number of people in or on the
vehicle. The serious injuries are the adjusted figures which compensate for reporting
differences between police forces. The data covers 2021 and was downloaded
from the interactive STATS 19 data at https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/custom-
downloads/road-accidents
15
We compared the proportion of all KSIs for each group as opposed to the finite
numbers to account for the difference in terms of riding and driving populations.
Figure 13: Proportion of car driver and motorcycle KSIs by age (2021)
Young drivers and riders are generally categorised as up to and including 24 years of
age. The young driver demographic accounts for 18.30% of all driver KSIs. For
motorcycling, young riders account for 28.55% of all rider KSIs.
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
under 16
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
Proportion of car driver and motorcycle rider KSIs
(2021)
proportion of all driver KSIs proportion of all rider KSIs
16
Finally, we analysed the trends over time for the proportion of young rider/driver KSIs.
The analysis covers 2010 to 2019 to avoid any pandemic impacts.
Figure 14: Proportion of under 25y/o KSIs 210 - 2019
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Proportion of under 25y/o KSIs car and motorcycle
2010 - 2019
Motorcyclists Car Drivers
17
Discussion
There is no question that the process for achieving a full motorcycle licence is costlier
and more complex than the same process for achieving a full car driving licence. It
would appear that this difference results in a significantly different age demographic
profile of licence holders between the two modes. Motorcyclists generally appear
to obtain a full licence at a later age than car drivers. Indeed, there is a noticeable
lift in the numbers obtaining a full motorcycle licence over the age of 60, a
phenomenon that is not apparent for car licences. We shall refer to this
phenomenon as a bucket list effect.
The fact that it is legally permissible to ride a motorcycle unsupervised indefinitely
after taking a CBT does, however, raise questions about the numbers of riders that
are riding without obtaining a full motorcycle licence. Despite the fact that a CBT
certificate expires after 2 years it is entirely legitimate to renew a CBT any number of
times and potentially for an entire riding career. Given that there are no digital
records allowing data to be gathered on the number and age of riders riding on CBTs
there remains a significant hole in our analysis. The fact that there are on average
five times as many CBT certificates issued as full motorcycle licences obtained in any
given year is shocking. This may represent high numbers of riders renewing CBTs after
two years riding, but we suspect that it is more likely that a far higher proportion of
these riders are simply taking up driving cars rather than continuing on to obtain full
motorcycle licences. The phenomenon of riders returning to riding in later years
(often referred to as ‘born again bikers’) is widely recognised, and would seem to
back our assumption.
It would seem reasonable to assume, therefore, that the licensing regime is
suppressing to some extent the number of riders sticking with powered two-wheel
transport choices. In all likelihood these potential riders will largely be choosing cars
for their trips. If true, this effect would be counterproductive in terms of Government
ambitions to minimise single occupancy car trips.
We would suggest that the ‘bucket list’ effect may also be partly due to suppression
of entry to riding. It seems reasonable to suggest that riders in later stages of their lives
have harboured the desire to ride but been put off. There will no doubt be a number
of factors creating the drag, but the licensing regime is likely to be one of them.
Geographically there seems to be little evidence for regional differences to the age
demographic profiles of licence holders. The London region is a possible outlier,
showing both the highest car licence holder to vehicle ratio and lowest motorcycle
licence holder to motorcycle ratio. This is likely to be due to the overall youth of the
18
London population which amplifies the difference in licence acquisition against the
population age profile.
With respect to road safety it is a commonly ignored fact that the number of young
rider fatalities is higher than the number of young driver fatalities, despite the vast
difference in the proportion of riders to drivers. In 2021 there were 1,289 driver KSIs
amongst drivers below 25 years of age. In the same year there were 1,540
motorcyclist KSIs amongst riders below 25. We could convert these figures into fatality
rates using numbers of licence holders, but given the lack of data for CBT riders this
would create an overexaggerated result.
Whilst it is clear that motorcycling fatality rates are far higher than those for car drivers,
regardless of age, our analysis of the proportion of fatalities by age normalises the
severity element of the risk equation. The analysis clearly shows that the probability
of fatality is far higher for riders below the age of 25 than it is for drivers in that age
range.
We believe it is axiomatic that drivers and riders holding full licences are less likely to
be involved in collisions than unqualified drivers and riders. This natural assumption is
amplified when considering that unqualified drivers are required to be supervised at
all times, whereas unqualified riders on CBT certificates are not.
On this basis the 20% conversion rate of CBT to full licence must be viewed as a
significant safety concern.
Beyond the self-evident safety argument, there is little if any incentive for a rider to
obtain a full motorcycle licence unless the rider has a desire to ride a machine larger
than 125cc capacity. Equally, it is accepted that young peoples’ attitude to risk is
challenging (and particularly so for males, who make up the vast majority of young
riders). Any testing regime encouraging riding unsupervised for up to two years on a
CBT must be seen as far riskier than one promoting progress to a full licence in a timely
manner.
The Direct Access Scheme route appears to have actively delayed the age at which
young riders progress from CBT to a full motorcycle licence. It is unlikely, however,
that there is an equivalent delay in taking the initial CBT. The effect of DAS is likely to
be increased numbers of CBT renewals and thus extended periods of unqualified and
unsupervised riding.
The limited data that we have from the DVLA on CBT student age profiles suggests
that significant numbers of young riders are starting their riding careers with no
intention of obtaining a full licence, or simply facing changes in their circumstances
before progressing to fully licensed status. It is equally clear that they are paying a
19
heavy price for avoiding or delaying vital training to achieve a basic standard of
competence.
Conclusions
The lack of data on CBT students age demography makes definitive conclusions
less certain, but the authors do believe that there is significant evidence that:
1) the current licensing regime is suppressing the numbers of individuals riding
motorcycles, and
2) the current licensing regime is having an adverse impact on young rider
safety.
Recommendations
The logical recommendations that follow from our analysis are:
1) Urgent research should be carried out to provide a robust estimate of the
age demographic of CBT students and the number of riders currently riding
on CBT without a full licence.
2) A full review of the entire motorcycle licensing regime should be conducted
to identify changes that would promote the achievement of a specific target
to increasing the conversion rate from CBT to full motorcycle licence holders.