Market Feasibility Analysis
HearthSide Lafayette Senior Apartments
Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia
Prepared for:
NorSouth Development
Effective Date: May 25, 2016
Site Inspection: May 17, 2016
HearthSide Lafayette | Table of Contents
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... V
1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1
A.
Overview of Subject .............................................................................................................................................. 1
B.
Purpose of Report ................................................................................................................................................. 1
C.
Format of Report .................................................................................................................................................. 1
D.
Client, Intended User, and Intended Use ............................................................................................................. 1
E.
Applicable Requirements ...................................................................................................................................... 1
F.
Scope of Work ...................................................................................................................................................... 1
G.
Report Limitations ................................................................................................................................................ 2
2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................... 3
A.
Project Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 3
B.
Project Type and Target Market ........................................................................................................................... 3
C.
Building Types and Placement .............................................................................................................................. 3
D.
Detailed Project Description ................................................................................................................................. 4
1.
Project Description ....................................................................................................................................... 4
2.
Other Proposed Uses ................................................................................................................................... 4
3.
Proposed Timing of Development ............................................................................................................... 4
3. SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 6
A.
Site Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 6
1.
Site Location ................................................................................................................................................. 6
2.
Existing Uses ................................................................................................................................................. 7
3.
Size, Shape, and Topography ....................................................................................................................... 7
4.
General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ................................................................. 8
5.
Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ...................................................................................................... 9
B.
Neighborhood Analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 10
1.
General Description of Neighborhood ....................................................................................................... 10
2.
Neighborhood Planning Activities .............................................................................................................. 10
3.
Public Safety ............................................................................................................................................... 10
C.
Site Visibility and Accessibility ............................................................................................................................ 12
1.
Visibility ...................................................................................................................................................... 12
2.
Vehicular Access ......................................................................................................................................... 12
3.
Availability of Public Transit ....................................................................................................................... 12
4.
Availability of Inter-Regional Transit .......................................................................................................... 12
5.
Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned .................................................................. 12
6.
Environmental Concerns ............................................................................................................................ 13
D.
Residential Support Network .............................................................................................................................. 13
1.
Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Site ........................................................................................ 13
2.
Essential Services ....................................................................................................................................... 13
3.
Commercial Goods and Services ................................................................................................................ 15
4.
Recreational Amenities .............................................................................................................................. 15
5.
Location of Low Income Housing ............................................................................................................... 15
E.
Site Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 15
4. MARKET AREA DEFINITION ........................................................................................... 16
A.
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 16
B.
Delineation of Market Area ................................................................................................................................ 16
5. ECONOMIC CONTENT ................................................................................................... 18
A.
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 18
B.
Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment .................................................................................. 18
1.
Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment ......................................................................... 18
2.
Trends in County Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................................... 18
HearthSide Lafayette | Table of Contents
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C.
Commutation Patterns ....................................................................................................................................... 19
D.
At-Place Employment ......................................................................................................................................... 19
1.
Trends in Total At-Place Employment ........................................................................................................ 19
2.
At-Place Employment by Industry Sector................................................................................................... 20
3.
Major Employers ........................................................................................................................................ 22
4.
Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions ........................................................................................ 23
5.
Conclusions on Local Economics ................................................................................................................ 23
6. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 24
A.
Introduction and Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 24
B.
Trends in Population and Households ................................................................................................................ 24
1.
Recent Past Trends ..................................................................................................................................... 24
2.
Projected Trends ........................................................................................................................................ 24
3.
Building Permit Trends ............................................................................................................................... 24
4.
Trends in Older Adult Households ............................................................................................................. 26
C.
Demographic Characteristics .............................................................................................................................. 26
1.
Age Distribution and Household Type ....................................................................................................... 26
2.
Renter Household Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 27
3.
Income Characteristics ............................................................................................................................... 30
7. COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 31
A.
Introduction and Sources of Information ........................................................................................................... 31
B.
Overview of Market Area Housing Stock ............................................................................................................ 31
C.
Survey of Age-Restricted Rental Communities ................................................................................................... 33
1.
Introduction to the Age-Restricted Rental Housing Survey ....................................................................... 33
2.
Location ...................................................................................................................................................... 33
3.
Age-Restricted Rental Housing Characteristics .......................................................................................... 33
4.
Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................ 33
5.
Unit Distribution ......................................................................................................................................... 33
6.
Effective Rents ........................................................................................................................................... 35
7.
Payment of Utility Costs ............................................................................................................................. 35
8.
Unit Features .............................................................................................................................................. 35
9.
Community Amenities ................................................................................................................................ 35
D.
Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities ........................................................................................... 36
1.
Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey ................................................................................................ 36
2.
Location ...................................................................................................................................................... 36
3.
Size of Communities ................................................................................................................................... 36
4.
Age of Communities ................................................................................................................................... 37
5.
Structure Type ............................................................................................................................................ 37
6.
Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................ 38
7.
Rent Concessions ....................................................................................................................................... 38
8.
Absorption History ..................................................................................................................................... 38
9.
Payment of Utility Costs ............................................................................................................................. 39
10.
Unit Features .............................................................................................................................................. 39
11.
Parking ....................................................................................................................................................... 39
12.
Community Amenities ................................................................................................................................ 39
13.
Unit Distribution ......................................................................................................................................... 40
14.
Effective Rents ........................................................................................................................................... 40
15.
DCA Average Market Rent ......................................................................................................................... 42
E.
Interviews ........................................................................................................................................................... 43
F.
Multi-Family Pipeline .......................................................................................................................................... 43
G.
Existing Low Income Rental Housing .................................................................................................................. 43
H.
Housing Authority Data ...................................................................................................................................... 44
I.
Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes ........................................................................................ 45
8. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................... 46
HearthSide Lafayette | Table of Contents
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A.
Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................................ 46
1.
Site and Neighborhood Analysis ................................................................................................................ 46
2.
Economic Context ...................................................................................................................................... 46
3.
Population and Household Trends ............................................................................................................. 46
4.
Demographic Trends .................................................................................................................................. 47
5.
Competitive Housing Analysis .................................................................................................................... 47
B.
Affordability Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 49
1.
Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 49
2.
Affordability Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 50
3.
Conclusions on Affordability ...................................................................................................................... 52
C.
Demand Estimates and Capture Rates ............................................................................................................... 52
1.
Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 52
2.
Demand Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 52
D.
Product Evaluation ............................................................................................................................................. 55
E.
Price Position ...................................................................................................................................................... 55
F.
Absorption Estimate ........................................................................................................................................... 57
G.
Impact on Existing Market .................................................................................................................................. 57
H.
Final Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 57
APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS ............................... 59
APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS/REPRESENTATIONS ................................................. 61
APENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION...................................................................................... 63
APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES .......................................................................................... 64
APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST ................................................................................................ 67
APPENDIX 6 NCHMA CHECKLIST ........................................................................................... 72
APPENDIX 7 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES ....................................................................... 75
TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS
Table 1 HearthSide Lafayette Detailed Project Summary............................................................................................. 5
Table 2 Key Facilities and Services .............................................................................................................................. 13
Table 3 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates .......................................................................................................... 18
Table 4 2010-2014 Commuting Patterns, HearthSide Lafayette Market Area ............................................................ 19
Table 5 Major Private Employers, Fayette County ..................................................................................................... 22
Table 6 Population and Household Projections .......................................................................................................... 25
Table 7 Building Permits by Structure Type, Fayette County ..................................................................................... 25
Table 8 Trends in Older Adult Householders, HearthSide Lafayette Market Area ..................................................... 26
Table 9 2016 Age Distribution .................................................................................................................................... 27
Table 10 2010 Households by Household Type ........................................................................................................... 27
Table 11 Households by Tenure................................................................................................................................. 28
Table 12 Senior Households by Tenure, Age 62+ ...................................................................................................... 28
Table 13 Renter Households by Age of Householder ................................................................................................ 29
Table 14 2010 Renter Households by Household Size ................................................................................................ 29
Table 15 2016 Household Income ............................................................................................................................... 30
Table 16 2016 Senior Household Income by Tenure, Households 62+ ....................................................................... 30
Table 17 Dwelling Units by Structure and Tenure ...................................................................................................... 31
Table 18 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure ...................................................................................................... 32
Table 19 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock ...................................................................................................... 32
Table 20 Senior Rental Summary ................................................................................................................................. 34
Table 21 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features, Senior Communities .................................................................... 35
Table 22 Community Amenities, Senior Communities ................................................................................................ 36
Table 23 Rental Summary, Surveyed General Occupancy Communities..................................................................... 38
Table 24 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features ....................................................................................................... 39
HearthSide Lafayette | Table of Contents
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Table 25 Community Amenities .................................................................................................................................. 40
Table 26 Unit Distribution, Size, and Pricing................................................................................................................ 41
Table 27 Average Market Rent, Most Comparable Communities ............................................................................... 42
Table 28 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary ................................................................................. 43
Table 29 Subsidized Communities, HearthSide Lafayette Market Area ..................................................................... 44
Table 30 Foreclosure Rate and Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 30214 ........................................................... 45
Table 31 2018 Total and Renter Income Distribution, 62+ ......................................................................................... 49
Table 32 2015 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, HearthSide Lafayette ........................................................................ 50
Table 33 2018 HearthSide Lafayette Affordability Analysis ........................................................................................ 51
Table 34 Substandard and Cost Burdened Calculations ............................................................................................ 53
Table 35 Senior Homeowner Conversion, Atlanta MSA ............................................................................................ 53
Table 36 DCA Demand by Income Level .................................................................................................................... 54
Table 37 DCA Demand by Floor Plan (No Overlap) and Capture Rate Analysis Chart ............................................... 54
Figure 1 Site Plan ........................................................................................................................................................... 3
Figure 2 Views of Subject Site ........................................................................................................................................ 7
Figure 3 Satellite Image of Subject Site ......................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses ..................................................................................................................... 9
Figure 5 At-Place Employment, Fayette County ......................................................................................................... 20
Figure 6 Total Employment by Sector ......................................................................................................................... 21
Figure 7 Change in Employment by Sector 2011-2015 Q3 ......................................................................................... 21
Figure 8 Price Position – One and Two Bedroom Units ............................................................................................... 56
Map 1 Site Location ...................................................................................................................................................... 6
Map 2 2014 CrimeRisk, Subject Site and Surrounding Areas ..................................................................................... 11
Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services ............................................................................................................ 14
Map 4 HearthSide Lafayette Market Area .................................................................................................................. 17
Map 5 Major Private Employers .................................................................................................................................. 22
Map 6 Surveyed Senior Rental Communities ............................................................................................................. 34
Map 7 Surveyed Rental Communities ........................................................................................................................ 37
Map 8 Subsidized Rental Communities ...................................................................................................................... 44
HearthSide Lafayette | Executive Summary
Page v
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
NorSouth Development has retained Real Property Research Group, Inc. (RPRG) to conduct a
comprehensive market feasibility analysis of HearthSide Lafayette, a proposed senior-oriented rental
community in Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia. HearthSide Lafayette will be financed in part by
Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), allocated by the Georgia Department of Community Affairs
(DCA), and will be restricted to households with a householder age 62 or older.
1. Project Description
As proposed, HearthSide Lafayette will offer 75 LIHTC units targeting households earning
up to 50 percent and 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted for
household size. Fifty units will be market rate, unencumbered by tenant rent or income
restrictions. The site for HearthSide Lafayette is at the northwest corner of the West
Lanier Avenue and Meeting Place Drive intersection, approximately one-half mile west of
downtown Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia.
A detailed summary of the subject property, including the rent and unit configuration, is
shown in the table below. The rents shown will include the cost of trash removal.
In-unit features offered at the subject property will include a range, refrigerator,
dishwasher, garbage disposal, microwave, washer/dryer connections, ceiling fans, and
nine foot ceilings. These unit features are comparable to those offered at HearthSide
Peachtree City and will be superior to unit features offered at the older Valley Hill. The
proposed unit features will also be comparable to or superior to those offered at the
existing general occupancy communities in the market area.
HearthSide Lafayette’ community amenity package will include a community room,
fitness center, business/computer center, covered pavilion with tables and chairs, fenced
community garden, arts and crafts room, media/theater room, library, beauty salon,
community laundry area, and covered entrance. This amenity package, geared toward
seniors, will be competitive with amenities offered at the newest senior LIHTC surveyed
(HearthSide Peachtree City) and superior to those found at Valley Hill. The proposed
community amenities will appeal to senior households more than the family-oriented
community amenities typically found at general occupancy properties.
Type
Income
Target
Bed Bath Quantity
Square
Feet
Proposed
Net Rent
Net Rent
/ Sq. Ft.
Utility
Allowance*
Proposed
Gross Rent
LIHTC 50% 1 1 10 752 $445 $0.59 $171 $616
LIHTC 60% 1 1 20 752 $565 $0.75 $171 $736
Market 120% 1 1 20 752 $1,100 $1.46 N/A N/A
LIHTC 50% 2 2 15 1,015 $525 $0.52 $217 $742
LIHTC 60% 2 2 30 1,015 $680 $0.67 $217 $897
Market 120% 2 2 30 1,015 $1,300 $1.28 N/A N/A
Total/Average 125 910 $840 $0.92
*Rents include the cost of trash collection.
Unit Mix/Rents
HearthSide Lafayette | Executive Summary
Page v i
2. Site Description / Evaluation
The subject site is a suitable location for affordable senior rental housing as it is compatible with
surrounding land uses, has excellent visibility from West Lanier Avenue (State Highway 54), and has
ample access to amenities, services, and major thoroughfares.
The site for HearthSide Lafayette is at the northwest corner of the West Lanier Avenue (State
Highway 54) and Meeting Place Drive intersection, approximately one-half mile west of
downtown Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia. Bordering land uses include single-family
detached homes, a hotel, a business park, and the future site of Lafayette Square Apartments,
a luxury market rate multi-family rental community.
Community services, neighborhood shopping centers, medical services, and recreational
venues are all within three miles of the site including grocery stores, pharmacies, a senior
center, medical facilities, banks, and convenience stores within two miles.
HearthSide Lafayette will have excellent visibility from West Lanier Avenue (State Highway
54) which has steady traffic.
The subject site’s surrounding land use characteristics, which include a mixture of
commercial, residential, and institutional development, are compatible with a senior-
oriented multi-family community.
3. Market Area Definition
The HearthSide Lafayette Market Area includes Census tracts in east Fayette County and
southwest Clayton County, including all or parts of several municipalities including
Fayetteville, Riverdale, Jonesboro, and Lovejoy. These suburban areas share similar socio-
economic and demographic characteristics and are generally comparable to the area
immediately surrounding the subject site. Based on the limited affordable senior rental
housing available in and around the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area, the subject property
will likely be able to draw tenants from throughout this market area and likely from beyond.
Due to geographic distance from the site, areas in south Fayette County and north Clayton
County are excluded to avoid overestimating demand. The master-planned community of
Peachtree City to the west is also excluded from the market area as it is a distinct and separate
submarket.
The boundaries of the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area and their approximate distance from
the subject site are Fulton County / State Highway 138 (6.9 miles to the north), Tara Boulevard
/ Henry County (8.0 miles to the east), Rising Star Road (8.0 miles to the south), and Ebenezer
Road / Whitewater Creek / State Highway 74 (4.3 miles to the west).
4. Community Demographic Data
The HearthSide Lafayette Market Area experienced strong population and household growth during
the previous decade. Steady growth has continued over the past six years, albeit at a slower pace,
and growth is expected to continue over the next two years. Senior household growth is expected to
outpace total household growth significantly on a percentage basis over the next two years.
Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area added 25,436
people (23.9 percent) and 8,538 households (23.3 percent). From 2016 to 2018, the
population and household base of the market area are projected to increase at an annual rate
of 0.5 percent or 628 people and 242 households per year.
HearthSide Lafayette | Executive Summary
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Between 2016 and 2018, households with householders age 62+ are projected to increase by
2.9 percent or 369 households per year. The total number of households with householders
age 62+ in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is projected to be 13,277 in 2018.
The renter percentage in the market area is projected to increase from 23.9 percent in 2010
to 27.2 percent in 2018; roughly 92 percent of net household growth (448 households) over
the next two years is expected to be renter households. The senior (62+) renter percentage
in the market area is 13.9 percent in 2016.
Seniors (age 62 and older) comprise 15.9 percent of the population in the HearthSide
Lafayette Market Area. Given its suburban nature, roughly two-thirds of people in the market
area are either Adults (age 35 to 61) or Children/Youth under 20 years old.
Roughly 80 percent of market area households have two or more people including 37.7
percent with no children; households with two or more people and no children include empty
nesters. Approximately 20 percent of market area households are single person households.
Roughly 23 percent of renters in the market are age 55 or older including 10.4 percent age 65
or older.
The 2016 median income of households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is $58,186,
which is 18.7 percent higher than the Bi-County Market Area’s median household income of
$49,013. The 2016 median income for senior renter households (age 62 and older) in the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is $33,628. Roughly 36 percent of all senior renter
householders (62+) in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area earn $15,000 to $34,999 per year
and one-third (33.5 percent) earn $35,000 to $74,999 annually.
5. Economic Data
Over the past four years, Fayette County’s economy has shown signs of stabilization with declining
unemployment rates and steady job growth following a notable decline during the national recession.
The unemployment rate in Fayette County has decreased significantly to 5.1 percent in 2015
from a recession era high of 8.4 percent in 2009. The county’s unemployment rate is lower
than both state (5.9 percent) and national (5.4 percent) rates.
Fayette County has added 2,858 net jobs over the past four years and has added 1,220 jobs
through the third quarter of 2015, nearly recouping all losses incurred during the recession.
Several job expansions recently announced in Fayette County and the newly developed and
expanding Pinewood Studios Atlanta are positive indicators of future growth in the county’s
economy. We do not expect current economic conditions in Fayette County to negatively
impact the proposed development of HearthSide Lafayette.
6. Project Specific Affordability and Demand Analysis:
HearthSide Lafayette will contain 75 LIHTC units reserved for senior households (62+) earning
up to 50 percent and 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI) and 50 market rate units.
Income-qualified renter households (62+) and capture rates for each unit type are as follows:
The 50 percent AMI units will target renter households (62+) earning between $18,480
and $27,300. The 25 proposed 50 percent AMI units would need to capture 9.1 percent
of the 275 income qualified renter households (62+) in order to lease-up.
HearthSide Lafayette | Executive Summary
Page v i i i
The 60 percent AMI units will target renter households (62+) earning between $22,080
and $32,760. The 50 proposed 60 percent AMI units would need to capture 14.3 percent
of the 350 income qualified renter households (62+) in order to lease-up.
All LIHTC units will target renter households (62+) earning between $18,480 and $32,760.
The 75 proposed LIHTC units would need to capture 16.4 percent of the 459 income
qualified renter households (62+) in order to lease-up.
The market rate units will target renter households (62+) earning between $38,130 and
$65,520. The 50 proposed market rate units would need to capture 11.0 percent of the
453 income qualified renter households (62+) in order to lease-up.
Project wide, the subject property will target renter households (62+) earning between
$18,480 and $65,520. The 125 proposed units would need to capture 13.7 percent of the
912 income qualified renter households (62+) to reach full occupancy.
Given the subject property will be the only affordable senior rental community in the market
area, all affordability capture rates are within reasonable and achievable levels.
HearthSide Lafayette' DCA capture rates by AMI level are 15.6 percent for 50 percent units,
24.5 percent for 60 percent units, 28.0 percent for all LIHTC units, 18.9 percent for market
rate units, and 23.5 percent for the project overall. By floor plan, capture rates range from
12.5 percent to 26.6 percent (Table 37). All of these capture rates are within DCA’s mandated
threshold of 30 percent and are reasonable for an age restricted rental community.
7. Competitive Rental Analysis
RPRG surveyed two senior LIHTC rental communities just outside the market area and 20 general
occupancy rental communities in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. No affordable senior
communities are located inside the market area so the two senior LIHTC communities just outside the
market area were included the survey. Both the senior and general occupancy rental markets were
performing well at the time of our survey.
Senior Rental Communities:
Both senior LIHTC communities just outside the market area were fully occupied and
HearthSide Peachtree City had a waiting list of roughly 250 people. HearthSide Peachtree
City opened in February 2014 and leased all 96 units by October 2014, an average monthly
absorption of 12 units.
Net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot for the surveyed senior rental units are as
follows:
One bedroom units had an average effective rent of $700 for an average of 712
square feet or $0.98 per square foot. One-bedroom effective rents were $520 to
$1,140 at HearthSide Peachtree City and $580 to $685 at Valley Hill. Effective
market rate rents were nearly $500 higher at the newer, amenity-rich, HearthSide
Peachtree City when compared to Valley Hill.
Two bedroom units had an average effective rent of $788 for an average of 910
square feet or $0.87 per square foot. Two-bedroom effective rents were $612 to
$1,257 at HearthSide Peachtree City and $687 to $730 at Valley Hill. Effective
market rate rents were roughly $500 higher at HearthSide Peachtree City when
compared to Valley Hill.
HearthSide Lafayette | Executive Summary
P a ge ix
General Occupancy Rental Communities:
The 19 general occupancy rental communities reporting occupancy had 112 vacancies
among 3,667 total units, an aggregate vacancy rate of 3.1 percent; management at Sutter
Lake refused to provide occupancy information. The two LIHTC communities reported 12
of 424 units vacant for a rate of 2.8 percent.
Among surveyed general occupancy rental communities, net rents, unit sizes, and rents
per square foot are as follows:
One-bedroom units had an average effective rent of $743, an average unit size
of 787 square feet, and an average rent per square foot of $0.94.
Two-bedroom units had an average effective rent of $837, an average unit size
of 1,056 square feet, and an average rent per square foot of $0.79.
The “average market rent” among comparable communities is $744 for one bedroom
units and $850 for two bedroom units. Proposed 50 percent rents at the subject property
have rent advantages of at least 38 percent and proposed 60 percent rents have rent
advantages of at least 20 percent. The overall rent advantage among proposed LIHTC
units is 27.4 percent. The proposed market rate rents are roughly 50 percent higher than
the average market rents in the market area; however, they are comparable to market
rate rents at HearthSide Peachtree City, the most comparable community to the subject
property. All market rate units at HearthSide Peachtree City are occupied.
8. Absorption/Stabilization Estimate
Based on the product to be constructed and current market conditions, we expect HearthSide
Lafayette to lease-up at a rate of at least 12 units per month comparable to HearthSide
Peachtree City. At this rate, the subject property will reach a stabilized occupancy of at least
93 percent within nine to ten months.
Given no affordable senior rental communities exist in the market area and a strong general
occupancy rental market, projected senior household growth over the next two years, and
reasonable affordability/demand estimates, we do not expect HearthSide Lafayette to have
negative impact on existing rental communities in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
including those with tax credits.
9. Overall Conclusion / Recommendation
Strong senior rental market conditions just outside the market area and reasonable affordability and
demand estimates indicate sufficient demand will exist in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area by
2018 to support the proposed 125 units at HearthSide Lafayette. As such, RPRG believes HearthSide
Lafayette will be able to reach and maintain a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent following its
entrance into the rental market. The subject property will benefit from being the only affordable
senior rental community in the market area and the subject will be well received by the target market.
We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.
HearthSide Lafayette | Executive Summary
Pag e x
10.DCA Summary Table:
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
Absorption
Average
Market Rent
Market Rents
Band
Proposed
Rents
50% Units $18,480 - $27,300
One Bedroom Units $18,480 - $23,000 10 7.3% 80 0 80 12.5% 3-4 months $744 $590-$891 $445
Two Bedroom Units $23,001 - $27,300 15 7.3% 80 0 80 18.6% 5-6 months $850 $685-$1,052 $525
60% Units $22,080 - $32,760
One Bedroom Units $22,080 - $27,000 20 8.3% 91 0 91 22.0% 7-8 months $744 $590-$891 $565
Two Bedroom Units $27,001 - $32,760 30 10.3% 113 0 113 26.6% 9-10 months $850 $685-$1,052 $680
Market Rate $38,130 - $65,520
One Bedroom Units $38,130 - $50,000 20 13.2% 145 0 145 13.8% 6-7 months $744 $590-$891 $1,100
Two Bedroom Units $50,001 - $65,520 30 10.9% 120 0 120 25.1% 8-9 months $850 $685-$1,052 $1,300
Project Total $18,480 - $65,520
50% Units $18,480 - $27,300 25 14.6% 160 0 160 15.6% 5-6 months
60% Units $22,080 - $32,760 50 18.5% 204 0 204 24.5% 9-10 months
LIHTC Units $18,480 - $32,760 75 24.3% 268 0 268 28.0% 9-10 months
Market Rate $38,130 - $65,520 50 24.1% 265 0 265 18.9% 8-9 months
Total Units $18,480 - $65,520 125 48.4% 532 0 532 23.5% 9-10 months
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HearthSide Lafayette | Introduction
Page 1
1.INTRODUCTION
A. Overview of Subject
The subject of this report is HearthSide Lafayette, a proposed 125 unit senior-oriented rental
community in Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia. HearthSide Lafayette will be financed in part by
Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC), allocated by the Georgia Department of Community Affairs
(DCA), and will be restricted to households with householder age 62 or older. As proposed,
HearthSide Lafayette will offer 75 LIHTC units targeting households earning up to 50 percent or 60
percent of the Area Median Income (AMI) and 50 market rate units without rent or income limits.
B. Purpose of Report
The purpose of this market study is to perform a market feasibility analysis through an examination
of the economic context, a demographic analysis of the defined market area, a competitive housing
analysis, a derivation of demand, and an affordability analysis. RPRG expects this study to be
submitted to the Georgia Department of Community Affairs in the 2016 competitive round to obtain
nine percent Low Income Housing Tax Credits.
C. Format of Report
The report format is comprehensive and conforms to DCA’s 2016 Market Study Manual. The market
study also considered the National Council of Housing Market Analysts’ (NCHMA) recommended
Model Content Standards and Market Study Index.
D.Client, Intended User, and Intended Use
The Client is NorSouth Development (Developer). Along with the Client, the Intended Users are DCA,
potential lenders, and investors.
E. Applicable Requirements
This market study is intended to conform to the requirements of the following:
DCA’s 2016 Market Study Manual.
The National Council of Housing Market Analyst’s (NCHMA) Model Content Standards and
Market Study Index.
F. Scope of Work
To determine the appropriate scope of work for the assignment, we considered the intended use of
the market study, the needs of the user, the complexity of the property, and other pertinent factors.
Our concluded scope of work is described below:
Please refer to Appendix 5 and 6 for a detailed list of DCA and NCHMA requirements as well
as the corresponding pages of requirements within the report.
Brett Welborn (Analyst) conducted a site visit on May 17, 2016.
Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the
various sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property
managers, Julie Brown with the Fayetteville Planning and Zoning Department, staff with the
HearthSide Lafayette | Introduction
Page 2
Fayette County Planning and Zoning Department, staff with the Clayton County Planning and
Zoning Department, Ellis Still with the Riverdale Planning, Zoning, and Economic Development
Department, staff with the Jonesboro Zoning Division, and Janice Wiggins with the Jonesboro
Housing Authority.
All pertinent information obtained was incorporated in the appropriate section(s) of this
report.
G.Report Limitations
The conclusions reached in a market assessment are inherently subjective and should not be relied
upon as a determinative predictor of results that will actually occur in the marketplace. There can be
no assurance that the estimates made or assumptions employed in preparing this report will in fact
be realized or that other methods or assumptions might not be appropriate. The conclusions
expressed in this report are as of the date of this report, and an analysis conducted as of another date
may require different conclusions. The actual results achieved will depend on a variety of factors,
including the performance of management, the impact of changes in general and local economic
conditions, and the absence of material changes in the regulatory or competitive environment.
Reference is made to the statement of Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions contained in
Appendix I of this report.
HearthSide Lafayette | Project Description
Page 3
2.PROJECT DESCRIPTION
A. Project Overview
HearthSide Lafayette will comprise 125 rental units reserved for households with householder age 62
or older. Seventy-five units will benefit from Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) and will target
households earning at or below 50 percent or 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI). Fifty
units will be market rate with no income or rent restrictions.
B. Project Type and Target Market
HearthSide Lafayette will target low to moderate income senior renter households with householder
age 62 or older. With a unit mix consisting of one and two bedroom floor plans, the subject property
will appeal to variety of senior household types including singles and couples.
C. Building Types and Placement
HearthSide Lafayette’s 125 units will be contained within a mid-rise building with three-stories and a
terrace level, elevator service, common/secure entrances, and interior corridors. Construction
characteristics will include a wood frame with a brick/stone and HardiPlank siding exterior. The
building will also feature a covered entrance with passenger drop-off. Surface parking will be available
in an adjacent lot at no charge.
Figure 1 Site Plan
Source: NorSouth Development
HearthSide Lafayette | Project Description
Page 4
D.Detailed Project Description
1. Project Description
HearthSide Lafayette will offer 50 one-bedroom units and 75 two-bedroom units.
Proposed unit sizes are 752 square feet for one-bedroom units and 1,015 square feet for two-
bedroom units (Table 1).
One bedroom units will have one bathroom and two bedroom units will have two bathrooms.
All rents will include the cost of trash removal. Tenants will bear the cost of all other utilities.
All appliances and the heating/cooling for each unit will be electric.
The following unit features and community amenities are planned:
Unit Features
Community Amenities
Kitchens with a refrigerator, range/oven,
dishwasher, garbage disposal, and
microwave.
Open floor plans, walk-in closets, walk-in
showers, and entertainment serving
bars.
Washer/dryer connections.
Ceiling fans.
Central heat and air-conditioning.
Window blinds.
Nine-foot ceilings
Elevator
Community room.
Fitness center.
Business/computer center.
Arts and crafts center.
Media center / theater
Laundry facilities
Library
Beauty salon
Covered pavilion
Community gardens
2. Other Proposed Uses
None.
3. Proposed Timing of Development
RPRG estimates HearthSide Lafayette will begin construction in 2017 with a date of completion/first
move-in in 2018. Based on this timeline, the subject property’s anticipated placed-in-service year is
2018.
HearthSide Lafayette | Project Description
Page 5
Table 1 HearthSide Lafayette Detailed Project Summary
Type
Income
Target
Bed Bath Quantity
Square
Feet
Proposed
Net Rent
Net Rent
/ Sq. Ft.
Utility
Allowance*
Proposed
Gross Rent
LIHTC 50% 1 1 10 752 $445 $0.59 $171 $616
LIHTC 60% 1 1 20 752 $565 $0.75 $171 $736
Market 120% 1 1 20 752 $1,100 $1.46 N/A N/A
LIHTC 50% 2 2 15 1,015 $525 $0.52 $217 $742
LIHTC 60% 2 2 30 1,015 $680 $0.67 $217 $897
Market 120% 2 2 30 1,015 $1,300 $1.28 N/A N/A
Total/Average 125 910 $840 $0.92
*Rents include the cost of trash collection.
HearthSide Lafayette Senior Apartments
105 Meeting Place Drive
Fayetteville, Fayette County, GA
Unit Mix/Rents
2017
2018
2018
Surface
None
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Tenant
Owner
Tenant
Elec
Tenant
Tenant
None
Source: NorSouth Development
Hot/Water
Unit Features
Kitchens with a Range/Oven,
Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Garbage
Disposal, and Microwave;
Entertainment Serving Bars;
Washer/Dryer Connections; Walk-in
Closets; Walk-in Showers; Ceiling
Fans; Nine Foot Ceilings; Central
Heating and Air Conditioning
Electricity
Heat
Trash
Heat Source
Other:
Utilities Included
Water/Sewer
Community
Amenities
Community Room, Business Center,
Fitness Center, Arts and Crafts Center,
Media Center / Theater, Library,
Beauty Salon, Laundry Room, Covered
Pavilion with Tables and Chairs,
Fenced Community Gardens, and
Leasing/Management Office
Kitchen Amenities
Dishwasher
Disposal
Microwave
Range
Refrigerator
Construction Type
New Const.
Parking Type
Design Characteristics (exterior)
Brick, HardiPlank
Parking Cost
Building Type Mid Rise Date of First Move-In
Number of Stories
Three
Construction Finish Date
Project Information
Additional Information
Number of Residential Buildings
One
Construction Start Date
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 6
3.SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS
A. Site Analysis
1. Site Location
The site for HearthSide Lafayette is on the north side of West Lanier Avenue (State Highway 54),
approximately one-half mile west of historic downtown Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia (Figure
2, Map 1). The site is bordered by Meeting Place Drive to the east, Lafayette Avenue to the west, West
Lanier Avenue to the south, and Mansfield Drive to the north. The physical address of the site is 105
Meeting Place Drive, Fayetteville, Georgia.
Map 1 Site Location
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 7
2. Existing Uses
The subject site is a heavily wooded parcel
without existing structures (Figure 2).
3. Size, Shape, and Topography
Based on field observations and information
provided by the developer, the subject site
encompasses roughly 13.7 acres, is
irregularly shaped, and has a relatively flat
topography.
Figure 2 Views of Subject Site
Western edge of site facing north.
Northern edge of site facing southwest.
Meeting Place Drive facing south (site on the right).
Eastern edge of site along Meeting Place Drive.
View along West Lanier Avenue (Hwy 54), site on right.
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 8
4. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site
The site for HearthSide Lafayette is surrounded by a mixture of development including residential,
commercial, and institutional land uses. Well maintained single-family detached homes are the most
common land use within one-half mile of the site to the north and west while commercial uses
dominate the immediate area to the south and east. The Villages at Lafayette Park, a residential
neighborhood, offers moderate to high value new for-sale single-family detached homes adjacent to
the site to the north; the community is currently being developed by Ravin Homes and has a number
of residential lots available for construction. A luxury market rate multi-family rental community
(Lafayette Square) is under construction adjacent to the site on Lafayette Avenue at its intersection
with West Lanier Avenue (State Highway 54).
Commercial development including a business park (Magnolia Office Park) and a number of small
businesses are south of the site along West Lanier Avenue. A hotel (Hampton Inn) is adjacent to the
site to the east and a Regions Bank is just east of the site on West Lanier Avenue. Historic Downtown
Fayetteville including the old county courthouse, restaurants, small retail shops, municipal services,
and several churches is roughly one-half mile to the east near West Lanier Avenue’s intersection with
Glynn Street South. Additional notable land uses within roughly one-half mile include Southern
Ground Amphitheatre, several schools, and a multi-family rental community (Brandywine at
Lafayette).
Figure 3 Satellite Image of Subject Site
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 9
5. Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site
The land uses directly bordering the subject
site are as follows (Figure 4):
North: Single-family detached homes
(The Villages at Lafayette Park).
East: Hampton Inn (hotel).
South: Magnolia Office Park and several
small businesses.
West: Lafayette Square
Apartments (under construction).
Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses
Lafayette Square Apartments, under construction
to the west.
Single-family detached home to the north (The
Villages at Lafayette Park)
Hampton Inn to the east.
The Villages at Lafayette Park to the north.
Magnolia Office Park to the south.
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 1 0
B. Neighborhood Analysis
1. General Description of Neighborhood
Fayetteville is a suburb of Atlanta in northeast Fayette County, roughly twenty miles south of
downtown Atlanta. Over the past 10 to 15 years, Fayetteville has experienced significant growth as
economic expansions in southern Atlanta and along the Interstate 85 corridor have attracted
households and business investment to the area. Residential development throughout Fayetteville
primarily consists of low-density unit types, most of which are newer moderate to high-value single-
family detached homes. Fayetteville also contains a small historic downtown district (roughly one-
half mile east of the site) and a large commercial center (Fayette Pavilion Shopping Center) on State
Highway 85 (three miles north of the site). Fayette Pavilion Shopping Center contains numerous big-
box retailers, restaurants, and service providers. The city’s existing multi-family rental stock is limited
to a handful of older market rate communities, the newest of which (Cobblestone) was built in 2002.
Most of these communities are in average condition and generally have standard design
characteristics. One luxury market rate rental community (Lafayette Square) is under construction
adjacent to the site, the first multi-family rental development in Fayetteville in over a decade.
2. Neighborhood Planning Activities
Several new development projects were noted in an around Fayetteville, the most notable of which
is the construction of Pinewood Atlanta Movie Studios (Phase I), just over four miles northwest of the
subject site. Pinewood Atlanta Studios, a film production complex, was built in 2014 and as of March
2015 had 480,000 square feet of studio space. The long-term plan for Pinewood Atlanta Studios is to
develop 1.95 million square feet of studio space, 1,345 residential units, and 312,000 square feet of
office space, hotels, and other commercial and institutional space. The development is expected to
occur over the next seven years and be completed by 2022.
Piedmont Fayette Hospital broke ground in 2015 on a $57 million, 139,000 square foot expansion in
Fayetteville. Plans include expanding the emergency department and adding two additional floors to
the existing hospital; the expansion is expected to be completed in late 2016. A Georgia Military
College satellite campus opened in Fall 2015 and several multi-family rental communities are in the
development pipeline in Fayetteville; detailed information on these rental developments can be
found in the Multi-Family Pipeline section of this report on page 43. Additionally, several for-sale
single-family detached home neighborhoods are under construction in the Fayetteville area with
homes ranging from $150,000 to $500,000; The Villages at Lafayette Park, adjacent to the site, offers
homes from $250,000 to $400,000.
3. Public Safety
The analysis tool for crime is CrimeRisk data provided by Applied Geographic Solutions
(AGS). CrimeRisk is a block-group level index that measures the relative risk of crime compared to a
national average. AGS analyzes known socio-economic indicators for local jurisdictions that report
crime statistics to the FBI under the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) program. An index of 100 reflects
a total crime risk on par with the national average, with values below 100 reflecting below average
risk and values above 100 reflecting above average risk. In accordance with the reporting procedures
used in the UCR reports, aggregate indexes have been prepared for personal and property crimes
separately as well as a total index. However, it must be recognized that these are unweighted indexes,
in that a murder is weighted no more heavily than purse snatching in this computation. The analysis
provides a useful measure of the relative overall crime risk in an area but should be used in
conjunction with other measures.
Map 2 displays the 2014 CrimeRisk Index for the census tracts in the general vicinity of the subject
site. The relative risk of crime is displayed in gradations from yellow (least risk) to red (most risk). The
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 1 1
subject site’s census tract has a below average crime risk (less than 100) when compared to the
national average (100). The crime risk surrounding the site is low and consistent with that throughout
much of the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. Based on the below average crime risk and the
experience of our site visit, we do not expect crime or the perception of crime to negatively impact
the subject property’s marketability.
Map 2 2014 CrimeRisk, Subject Site and Surrounding Areas
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 1 2
C. Site Visibility and Accessibility
1. Visibility
HearthSide Lafayette will have excellent visibility from West Lanier Avenue (State Highway 54), a four
lane divided highway, which has steady traffic in front of the site. Outside of State Highway 54, the
subject will have excellent visibility from the adjacent side streets of Lafayette Avenue and Meeting
Place Drive, each with light traffic. Traffic generated by nearby land uses including Hampton Inn, The
Villages at Lafayette Park (residential neighborhood), and Lafayette Square Apartments (currently
under construction on Lafayette Avenue) will increase awareness of the subject property.
2. Vehicular Access
HearthSide Lafayette will be accessible via an entrance on Meeting Place Drive, a residential
connector. Meeting Place Drive connects to West Lanier Avenue to the south with only right turns
available. Meeting Place Drive connects to Mansfield Drive to the north, which ultimately connects to
Lafayette Avenue. A traffic light at Lafayette Avenue and West Lanier Avenue facilitates access
to/from the site. As a condition of permit approval, HearthSide Lafayette will connect Meeting Place
Drive to Campaign Trail to the west with a new connector road.
3. Availability of Public Transit
Fayetteville and Fayette County do not offer public bus transportation; however, transportation is
available for seniors age 60+ to medical appointments and pharmacies through Fayette Senior
Services, Inc. The closest Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA) bus stop to the
subject site is in Riverdale, 6.5 miles to the northeast via State Highway 85.
4. Availability of Inter-Regional Transit
Fayetteville is connected to the region by multiple thoroughfares including State Highways 54, 85, 92,
and 314. All of these roadways are easily accessible from the subject site and provide convenient
access to the nearby cities of Newnan, Peachtree City, Jonesboro, Riverdale, and Morrow, as well as
Interstates 75, 85, and 285, all within fifteen miles. These three interstates provide access to all of
the Metro Atlanta area and cities throughout the southeast United States.
The site is less than fifteen miles south of Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.
5. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned
Roadway Improvements under Construction and Planned
RPRG reviewed information from local stakeholders to assess whether any capital improvement
projects affecting road, transit, or pedestrian access to the subject site are currently underway or
likely to commence within the next few years. Observations made during the site visit contributed to
the process.
The city and county are working jointly on a project that will connect Hood Avenue and State Route
92 and add an extension across Highway 85 to Kathi Avenue and Jeff Davis Drive. The plans also
include an extension to Church Street. This is expected to improve traffic circulation and safety in the
Highway 85 area, roughly one mile northeast of the site. This project is expected to be completed in
Spring 2017.
Transit and Other Improvements under Construction and/or Planned
None identified.
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 1 3
6. Environmental Concerns
No visible environmental or miscellaneous site concerns were identified.
D.Residential Support Network
1. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Site
The appeal of any given community is often based in part on its proximity to those facilities and
services required on a daily basis. Key facilities and services and their distances from the subject site
are listed in Table 2. The location of those facilities is plotted on Map 3.
Table 2 Key Facilities and Services
2. Essential Services
Health Care
The closest major medical center to the subject site is Piedmont Fayette Hospital, 2.6 miles to the
west. Piedmont Fayette Hospital is a 189-bed community hospital offering a wide variety of services
including emergency care, surgical services, cancer care, heart care, women’s care, sleep services, and
wound care (among others).
Outside of this major healthcare provider, several independent medical practitioners are within one
to two miles of the subject site, the closest of which is Fayette Medical Clinic, one mile to the west.
Senior Services
The closest senior services facility to the site is the Fayette Senior Services Life Enrichment Center, 1.3
miles southeast of the site. Open to adults age 50 and older, the center offers a variety of services
BP Convenience Store 610 W Lanier Ave. 0.3 mile
Regions Bank Bank 320 W Lanier Ave. 0.4 mile
SouthCrest Bank Bank 741 W Lanier Ave. 0.6 mile
Fayette County Library Library 1821 Heritage Pkwy. 0.7 mile
Fayetteville Fire Department Fire 95 Johnson Ave. 0.9 mile
Fayette Medical Clinic Doctor/Medical 101 Yorktown Dr. 1 mile
CVS Pharmacy 480 Glynn St. N 1.1 miles
Fayetteville Family Practive Doctor/Medical 108 N Park Dr. 1.3 miles
Fayette Family Medicine Doctor/Medical 101 Devant St. 1.3 miles
US Post Office Post Office 250 Georgia Ave. E 1.3 miles
Fayette Senior Services Senior Center 4 Center Dr. 1.3 miles
Rite Aid Pharmacy 975 Hwy 54 W 1.4 miles
Kroger Grocery Store 805 Glynn St. S 1.8 miles
Publix Grocery Store 840 Glynn St. S 1.9 miles
Fayetteville Police Department Police Station 760 Jimmie Mayfield Blvd. 2 miles
Piedmont Fayette Hospital Hospital 1255 Hwy 54 W 2.6 miles
Target General Retail 107 Pavillion Pkwy. 3 miles
Walmart General Retail 125 Pavillion Pkwy. 3 miles
Fayette Pavilion Mall 72 Pavillion Pkwy. 3 miles
Source: Field and Internet Research, RPRG, Inc.
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 1 4
and programs including fitness classes, adult day care referrals, medical equipment lending, in-home
personal care/homemaker services, and home repair/maintenance services (minor tasks). Fayette
Senior Services offers the STAR program for Fayette County residents age 60+ which includes
recreational activities, health and wellness classes, and opportunities for seniors to meet for
socialization,. Additional senior services, including meals and transportation, are also available to
qualifying members.
Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services
HearthSide Lafayette | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Page 1 5
3. Commercial Goods and Services
Convenience Goods
The term “convenience goods” refers to inexpensive, nondurable items that households purchase on
a frequent basis and for which they generally do not comparison shop. Examples of convenience
goods are groceries, fast food, health and beauty aids, household cleaning products, newspapers, and
gasoline.
The subject site is within two miles of many community amenities and services, most of which are
along Glynn Street (State Highway 85) or West Lanier Avenue (State Highway 54 W). HearthSide
Lafayette will be within roughly one-half mile of a convenience store (BP) and two banks (Regions
Bank and SouthCrest Bank) and within two miles of a couple pharmacies (CVS and Rite Aid) and full-
service grocery stores (Kroger and Publix).
Shoppers Goods
The term “shoppers goods” refers to larger ticket merchandise that households purchase on an
infrequent basis and for which they usually comparison shop. The category is sometimes called
“comparison goods.” Examples of shoppers’ goods are apparel and accessories, furniture and home
furnishings, appliances, jewelry, and sporting goods.
The largest concentration of retail development in Fayetteville is in the Fayette Pavilion Shopping
Center, three miles northeast of the site. The Fayette Pavilion Shopping Center contains numerous
national retail chains including Target, Wal-Mart, The Home Depot, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Kohl’s,
Hobby Lobby, Old Navy, Belk, HH Gregg, Petsmart, TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and the Cinemark Tinseltown
Movie Theater.
4. Recreational Amenities
HearthSide Lafayette will be convenient to a variety of recreational amenities in Fayette County, the
closest of which is the Southern Ground Amphitheater, one-quarter mile to the northeast. The
Southern Ground Amphitheater, adjacent to The Villages at Lafayette Park, is an outdoor auditorium
that hosts concerts and events throughout the year. Other nearby recreational amenities (within
three miles) include the Fayette County Parks and Recreation Center, Kiwanis Park, McCurry Park, and
a Fayette County Public Library.
5. Location of Low Income Housing
A list and map of existing low-income housing in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area are provided
in the Existing Low Income Rental Housing section of this report, starting on page 43
E. Site Conclusion
The subject site is compatible with surrounding land uses and is within two to three miles of numerous
community amenities including healthcare facilities, senior services, and shopping. Based on these
factors, the site for HearthSide Lafayette is appropriate for its intended use of affordable senior rental
housing.
HearthSide Lafayette | Market Area Definition
Page 1 6
4.MARKET AREA DEFINITION
A. Introduction
The primary market area for the proposed HearthSide Lafayette is defined as the geographic area
from which future residents of the community would primarily be drawn and in which competitive
rental housing alternatives are located. In defining the primary market area, RPRG sought to
accommodate the joint interests of conservatively estimating housing demand and reflecting the
realities of the local rental housing marketplace.
B. Delineation of Market Area
The HearthSide Lafayette Market Area includes Census tracts in east Fayette County and southwest
Clayton County, including all or parts of several municipalities including Fayetteville, Riverdale,
Jonesboro, and Lovejoy. These suburban areas share similar socio-economic and demographic
characteristics and are generally comparable to the area immediately surrounding the subject site.
Based on the limited affordable senior rental housing available in and around the HearthSide
Lafayette Market Area, the subject property will likely be able to draw tenants from throughout this
market area and likely from beyond. Due to geographic distance from the site, areas in south Fayette
County and north Clayton County are excluded to avoid overestimating demand. The master-planned
community of Peachtree City to the west is also excluded from the market area as it is a distinct and
separate submarket.
The boundaries of the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area and their approximate distance from the
subject site are:
North: Fulton County / State Highway 138 ........................................................ (6.9 miles)
East: Tara Boulevard / Henry County ................................................................ (8.0 miles)
South: Rising Star Road ....................................................................................... (8.0 miles)
West: Ebenezer Road / Whitewater Creek / State Highway 74 ........................ (4.3 miles)
This market area is depicted in Map 4 and the census tracts that comprise the market area are listed
on the edge of the map. As appropriate for this analysis, the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is
compared to a Bi-County Market Area comprising Fayette and Clayton Counties. The Bi-County
Market Area is considered the secondary market area, although demand will be computed based only
on the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area.
HearthSide Lafayette | Market Area Definition
Page 1 7
Map 4 HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
HearthSide Lafayette | Economic Content
Page 1 8
5.ECONOMIC CONTENT
A. Introduction
This section of the report focuses primarily on economic trends and conditions in Fayette County, the
jurisdiction in which HearthSide Lafayette will be located. For purposes of comparison, economic
trends in Georgia and the nation are also discussed.
B. Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment
1. Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment
Fayette County’s labor force grew by 2,585 workers from 2004 to 2006 before giving back these gains
over the next three years (2007 to 2009) during the recession with a net loss of 2,592 jobs. The county
has added a total of 3,312 workers or growth of 6.5 percent, since 2009 (Table 3). The employed
portion of the labor force followed a similar trend with growth of 4,843 employed workers since 2009.
2. Trends in County Unemployment Rate
Fayette County’s unemployment rate has been below both state and national rates every year since
2004. Fayette County’s unemployment rate has dropped each of the past six years to 5.1 percent in
2015, lower than both state (5.9 percent) and national (5.4 percent) rates. The county weathered the
recent economic recession better than the state and country with a peak unemployment rate of 8.4
percent in 2009, compared to a state high of 10.5 percent and a national high of 9.6 percent.
Table 3 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Annual Unemployment Rates - Not Seasonally Adjusted
Annual
Unemployment
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Labor Force 51,088 53,172 53,673 53,556 53,285 51,081 52,927 53,224 53,507 53,452 53,772 54,393
Employment 49,179 50,717 51,536 51,506 50,498 46,776 48,564 48,960 49,477 49,860 50,496 51,619
Unemployment 1,909 2,455 2,137 2,050 2,787 4,305 4,363 4,264 4,030 3,592 3,276 2,774
Unemployment Rate
Fayette County 3.7% 4.6% 4.0% 3.8% 5.2% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0% 7.5% 6.7% 6.1% 5.1%
Georgia 4.8% 5.3% 4.7% 4.5% 6.2% 9.9% 10.5% 10.2% 9.2% 8.2% 7.1% 5.9%
United States 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.8% 8.3% 7.4% 6.2% 5.4%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fayette County
Georgia
United States
Unemployment Rate
HearthSide Lafayette | Economic Content
Page 1 9
C. Commutation Patterns
According to 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS) data, roughly half (50.4 percent) of
workers spent 30 minutes or more commuting including 24.1 percent commuting 45 minutes or more.
The generally longer commute times of workers in the market area are a product of its suburban
location and convenient access to the Atlanta Metro area. Less than half (45.4 percent) of workers
residing in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area spent under 30 minutes commuting to work,
including less than 15 percent with a commute under 15 minutes (Table 4).
Roughly 39 percent of all workers residing in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area worked in their
county of residence while over half (59.7 percent) worked in another Georgia county. Less than two
percent of market area workers worked outside the state.
Table 4 2010-2014 Commuting Patterns, HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
D.At-Place Employment
1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment
Fayette County added jobs each year between 2000 and 2007 with net growth of 7,577 jobs or 23
percent (Figure 5). As a result of the national recession, the county lost 4,500 net jobs over the next
three years, a large majority (3,346 jobs) of which were lost in 2009. The county has shown signs of
stabilization with job growth in each of the past four years, adding over 2,400 total jobs. Fayette
County has continued adding jobs with the addition of 1,220 jobs through the third quarter of 2015,
nearly recouping all losses incurred during the recession.
As illustrated by the lines in the bottom portion of Figure 5, Fayette County experienced a larger dip
in jobs on a percentage basis from 2008 to 2010 than the nation; however, it has rebounded strongly
with equal or faster growth on a percentage basis in three of the past four years and was outpacing
the nation in 2015.
Travel Time to Work Place of Work
Workers 16 years+ # % Workers 16 years and over # %
Did not work at home:
53,436 95.8% Worked in state of residence: 54,791 98.2%
Less than 5 minutes 882 1.6% Worked in county of residence 21,460 38.5%
5 to 9 minutes 2,340 4.2%
Worked outside county of residence
33,331 59.7%
10 to 14 minutes 5,073 9.1% Worked outside state of residence 1,008 1.8%
15 to 19 minutes 6,198 11.1% Total 55,799 100%
20 to 24 minutes 6,913 12.4%
Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014
25 to 29 minutes 3,923 7.0%
30 to 34 minutes 9,487 17.0%
35 to 39 minutes 2,190 3.9%
40 to 44 minutes 3,010 5.4%
45 to 59 minutes 7,065 12.7%
60 to 89 minutes 4,720 8.5%
90 or more minutes 1,635 2.9%
Worked at home 2,363 4.2%
Total 55,799
Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014
In County
38.5%
Outside
County
59.7%
Outside
State
1.8%
2010-2014 Commuting Patterns
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
HearthSide Lafayette | Economic Content
Page 2 0
Figure 5 At-Place Employment, Fayette County
2. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector
Trade-Transportation-Utilities is the largest employment sector in Fayette County, accounting for 24.1
percent of all jobs in 2015 (Q3) (Figure 6). Other sectors with notable employment shares in Fayette
County include Education-Health (16.0 percent), Leisure-Hospitality (15.5 percent), and Government
(12.2 percent). Relative to the nation, the county has a significantly higher proportion of jobs in the
Trade-Transportation-Utilities, Construction, and Leisure-Hospitality sectors while it has a much lower
percentage of jobs in the Government, Financial Services, and Professional-Business sectors.
Source: U.S. Depa rtment of Labor, Bureau of La bor Sta ti s ti cs , Qua rterly Census of Empl oyment a nd Wages
32,965
34,567
35,602
36,157
36,598
37,949
39,778
40,542
39,815
36,469
36,042
36,745
37,536
38,277
38,900
40,120
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q3
At Place Employment
Total At Place Employment
1,602
1,035
555
441
1,351
1,829
764
-727
-3,346
-427
703
791
741
623
1,220
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q3
Change in At Place Employment
Annual Change in Fayette County At Place Employment
United States Annual Employment Growth Rate
Fayette County Annual Employment Growth Rate
Annual Change in At Place
% Annual Growth
HearthSide Lafayette | Economic Content
Page 2 1
Figure 6 Total Employment by Sector
Six industry sectors in Fayette County added jobs between 2011 and 2015 (Q3) (Figure 7). The Leisure-
Hospitality, Manufacturing, and Construction sectors each grew by more than 30 percent including
37.6 percent growth in the Leisure-Hospitality sector, the county’s third largest sector. The county’s
second largest sector (Education-Health) grew by 16.8 percent. The most notable losses were in the
Trade-Transportation-Utilities (the largest sector in the county) and Government sectors with losses
of 8.2 and 7.8 percent, respectively.
Figure 7 Change in Employment by Sector 2011-2015 Q3
Sector Jobs
Government 4,884
Federal 487
State 79
Local 4,318
Private Sector 35,236
Goods-Producing 5,975
Natural Resources-Mining 65
Construction 2,790
Manufacturing 3,121
Service Providing 29,074
Trade-Trans-Utilities 9,679
Information 302
Financial Activities 1,291
Professional-Business 3,411
Education-Health 6,411
Leisure-Hospitality 6,201
Other 1,779
Unclassified 186
Total Employment 40,120
Source: U.S. De pa rtme nt of Labor, Bureau of Labor Sta tis tics , Qua rterly Census of Empl oyment a nd Wa ges
Employment by Industry Sector - 2015 Q3
!
15.2%
1.5%
4.6%
8.9%
19.1%
2.0%
5.6%
14.0%
15.1%
10.9%
3.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Government
Nat Resources-Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade-Trans-Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional-Business
Education Health
Leisure-Hospitality
Other
Total Employment by Sector 2015 Q3
United States
Fayette County
Source: U.S. Depa rtment of Labor, Burea u of Labor Statis ti cs , Qua rterly Cens us of Empl oyment a nd Wa ges
"
"
#
"
"
"
#
!
!
-0.9%
7.4%
16.0%
5.0%
6.5%
2.5%
5.2%
12.5%
10.1%
13.5%
-2.6%
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
Government
Nat Resources-Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade-Trans-Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional-Business
Education Health
Leisure-Hospitality
Other
Employment Change by Sector, 2011-2015 Q3
United States
Fayette County
HearthSide Lafayette | Economic Content
Page 2 2
3. Major Employers
Several major employers are within ten miles of the subject site, all but one of which are along State
Highway 74 in the southern portion of Peachtree City (Map 5). Six of the largest private employers in
Fayette County are manufacturers (Table 5). The two largest private employer in Fayette County is
Piedmont-Fayette Hospital with 1,400 employees and NCR with 1,200 employees. In addition to these
private companies, the subject site is in close proximity to several public schools, numerous retailers,
and a variety of specialty service providers.
Table 5 Major Private Employers, Fayette County
Map 5 Major Private Employers
Rank Name Sector Employment
1
Piedmont Fayette Hospital
Healthcare
1,400
2 NCR Information 1,200
3 Cooper Lighting Manufacturing 600
4 Hoshizaki America, Inc. Manufacturing 330
5 Panasonic Automotive Systems Co. of America Manufacturing 300
6 FAA Tracon Transportation 190
7 TDK Components Manufacturing 130
8 Cooper Wiring Device Manufacturing 130
9 SANY America Manufacturing 126
Source: Fayette County Development Authority
HearthSide Lafayette | Economic Content
Page 2 3
4. Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions
RPRG identified a few large economic expansions in Fayette County since 2015 (Osmose Utilities
Services and Sigvaris), both in Peachtree City. Osmose Utilities Services announced in January 2015
that it intended to move its headquarters to Peachtree City, creating 100 new jobs. Sigvaris
announced in 2015 that it was expanding and creating 70 new jobs; the manufacturer plans to develop
40,000 square feet of office, manufacturing, and warehouse space.
The opening of Pinewood Studios in 2014 in northwest Fayetteville was a major boost to the county’s
economy. Although many jobs are temporary, the first major motion picture shot at Pinewood Studios
(Ant-Man) created roughly 3,700 jobs during filming. Additionally, the expansion occurring at
Piedmont Fayette Hospital in Fayetteville is expected to create a number of new jobs in the county.
No major layoff announcements were identified in Fayette County since 2015.
5. Conclusions on Local Economics
Fayette County experienced steady job growth and low unemployment throughout most of the past
fourteen years with the exception of job losses and higher unemployment during the recent national
recession. Over the past four to five years, the county has sustained post-recession job growth and
has seen a reduction in the unemployment rate to 5.1 percent in 2015, lower than both state and
national rates. We do not expect local economics to affect HearthSide Lafayette’s ability to lease-up
or maintain a stabilized occupancy.
HearthSide Lafayette | Demographic Analysis
Page 2 4
6.DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
A. Introduction and Methodology
RPRG analyzed recent trends in population and households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
and the Bi-County Market Area using U.S. Census data and data from Esri, a national data vendor that
prepares small area estimates and projections of population and households.
B. Trends in Population and Households
1. Recent Past Trends
Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the population of the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area grew
from 106,458 to 131,894 people (23.9 percent) with annual growth of 2,544 people or 2.2 percent
(Table 6). During the same time period, the number of households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market
Area grew at a similar pace with annual growth of 854 households or 2.1 percent.
Population and household growth in the Bi-County Market Area was slower when compared to the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. The population of the Bi-County Market Area had annual growth
of 1.1 percent from 2000 to 2010 while the number of households grew by 1.2 percent per year.
2. Projected Trends
Population and household growth in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is projected to continue,
albeit at a slower pace when compared to the previous decade. Based on Esri projections, the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area added 3,746 people and 1,490 households from 2010 to 2016. Esri
projects that the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area’s population will grow by 1,255 people between
2016 and 2018, annual growth of 628 people or 0.5 percent. The household base is projected to grow
at the same pace over the next two years adding 242 households or 0.5 percent per year.
Annual growth rates in the Bi-County Market Area are projected to be slightly slower than those of
the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area through 2018 at 0.3 percent for population and 0.4 percent for
households.
3. Building Permit Trends
RPRG examines building permit trends to help determine if the housing supply is meeting demand, as
measured by new households. From 2000 to 2006, housing permits in the Bi-County Market Area
decreased relatively steadily from 4,285 permitted units in 2000 to 2,882 permits in 2006. Beginning
in 2007, decreases accelerated significantly with losses in three consecutive years to a low of 168 units
permitted in 2009. An average of 2,845 permits was issued from 2000 to 2009 in the Bi-County Market
Area compared to annual household growth of 1,503 households between 2000 and 2010 census
counts. The disparity in household growth relative to units permitted suggests a slightly overbuilt
market; however, these figures do not take the replacement of existing housing units into account.
Building permits remained below 250 in each of the next two years before increasing in each of the
past four years to 973 units permitted in 2015; an annual average of 717 permits has been issued over
the past three years which is roughly one-quarter of the average in the previous decade (Table 7).
Single-family detached homes comprise the vast majority (87 percent) of all residential permits issued
in the Bi-County Market Area. Multi-family structures (5+ units) accounted for 13 percent of units
permitted.
HearthSide Lafayette | Demographic Analysis
Page 2 5
Table 6 Population and Household Projections
Table 7 Building Permits by Structure Type, Fayette County
Bi-County Market Area HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change
Population Count # % # % Count # % # %
2000
327,780 106,458
2010
365,991 38,211 11.7% 3,821 1.1% 131,894 25,436 23.9% 2,544 2.2%
2016
373,077 7,086 1.9% 1,181 0.3% 135,640 3,746 2.8% 624 0.5%
2018
375,642 2,565 0.7% 1,282 0.3% 136,895 1,255 0.9% 628 0.5%
Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change
Households Count # % # % Count # % # %
2000
113,767 36,618
2010
128,800 15,033 13.2% 1,503 1.2% 45,156 8,538 23.3% 854 2.1%
2016
131,708 2,908 2.3% 485 0.4% 46,646 1,490 3.3% 248 0.5%
2018
132,743 1,036 0.8% 518 0.4% 47,131 485 1.0% 242 0.5%
Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; Esri; and Real Property Research Group, Inc.
1.2%
0.4%
0.4%
2.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2000-2010
2010-2016
2016-2018
Bi-County Market Area
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
Annual Percentage Change in Households, 2000 to 2018
Bi-County Market Area
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2000-
2015
Annual
Average
Single Family 3,261 3,450 3,198 3,426 2,994 3,012 2,868 1,593 545 160 225 176 277 524 642 763 27,114 1,695
Two Family 0 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 1
3 - 4 Family 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 15 1
5+ Family 1,024 721 957 60 970 13 8 161 5 8 0 0 0 0 12 210 4,149 259
Total 4,285 4,171 4,161 3,486 3,969 3,025 2,882 1,754 550 168 225 176 285 524 654 973 31,288 1,956
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, C-40 Building Permit Reports.
4,285
4,171
4,161
3,486
3,969
3,025
2,882
1,754
550
168
225
176
285
524
654
973
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Units Permitted
Total Housing Units Permitted
2000 - 2015
HearthSide Lafayette | Demographic Analysis
Page 2 6
4. Trends in Older Adult Households
Older adult and senior households are expected to increase at a much faster rate on a percentage
basis than total households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area; senior household growth
includes both net migration and aging in place. HearthSide Lafayette Market Area had 16,161
households with householder age 55+ and 9,711 households with householder age 62+ as of the 2010
Census. Senior households with householders age 55+ increased by 3.3 percent annually while
households with householders age 62+ grew by 4.4 percent per year between 2010 and 2016 (Table
8).
Households with householders age 55+ are projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.0 percent or
406 households between 2016 and 2018. Households with householder age 62+ will increase at an
annual rate of 2.9 percent or 369 households, reaching a total of 13,277 in 2018.
Table 8 Trends in Older Adult Householders, HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
C. Demographic Characteristics
1. Age Distribution and Household Type
The population of the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is older than the Bi-County Market Area’s
with median ages of 36 and 34, respectively (Table 9). Seniors (persons age 62 and older) comprise
15.9 percent of the population in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area compared to 14.4 percent of
the population in the Bi-County Market Area. Reflecting its suburban location, the HearthSide
Lafayette Market Area has a large proportion of Adults age 35 to 61 (36.6 percent) and Children/Youth
under 20 years old (27.9 percent) (Table 9). Young Adults (20-34 years) comprise 19.6 percent of the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area’s population. The Bi-County Market Area has a higher proportion
of people under the age of 45 when compared to the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area.
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area Total Annual Total Annual
Age of
2010 2016 2018 # % # % # % # %
55 to 61 6,450 39.9% 7,069 36.1% 7,142 35.0% 620 9.6% 103 1.5% 73 1.0% 36 0.5%
62-64 2,501 15.5% 3,030 15.5% 3,061 15.0% 528 21.1% 88 3.2% 31 1.0% 16 0.5%
65 to 74 4,556 28.2% 6,414 32.7% 6,886 33.7% 1,858 40.8% 310 5.9% 472 7.4% 236 3.6%
75 and older 2,654 16.4% 3,095 15.8% 3,330 16.3% 441 16.6% 73 2.6% 235 7.6% 118 3.7%
Householders
55+
16,161 100.0% 19,608 100.0% 20,419 100.0% 3,447 21.3% 574 3.3% 811 4.1% 406 2.0%
Householders
62+
9,711 12,538 13,277 2,827 29.1% 471 4.4% 738 5.9% 369 2.9%
Source: 2010 Census; Esri; RPRG
Change 2010 to 2016 Change 2016 to 2018
6,450
2,501
4,556
2,654
7,069
3,030
6,414
3,095
7,142
3,061
6,886
3,330
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
55 to 61 62-64 65 to 74 75 and older
# Households
2016-2018 Older Adult Householders by Age - HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
2010
2016
2018
HearthSide Lafayette | Demographic Analysis
Page 2 7
Table 9 2016 Age Distribution
Reflecting its suburban composition, households with children are the most common household type
in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area; married couples comprise the majority of households with
children (Table 10). The large percentage of households with two or more people and no children
(37.7 percent) likely includes empty nesters. Approximately 20 percent of HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area households are single person households. The Bi-County Market Area has a lower
percentage of households with two or more people and a higher percent of single person households.
Table 10 2010 Households by Household Type
2. Renter Household Characteristics
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area households are less likely to rent with 23.9 percent of all
households renting in 2010 compared to 35.3 percent in the Bi-County Market Area; however, renter
# % # %
Children/Youth 107,569 28.8% 37,800 27.9%
Under 5 years 25,575 6.9% 8,217 6.1%
5-9 years 26,543 7.1% 8,892 6.6%
10-14 years 28,172 7.6% 10,326 7.6%
15-19 years 27,279 7.3% 10,365 7.6%
Young Adults 78,089 20.9% 26,577 19.6%
20-24 years 26,731 7.2% 9,607 7.1%
25-34 years 51,358 13.8% 16,970 12.5%
Adults 133,717 35.8% 49,656 36.6%
35-44 years 49,158 13.2% 17,076 12.6%
45-54 years 53,112 14.2% 20,051 14.8%
55-61 years 31,447 8.4% 12,529 9.2%
Seniors 53,702 14.4% 21,607 15.9%
62-64 years 13,477 3.6% 5,370 4.0%
65-74 years 26,633 7.1% 10,849 8.0%
75-84 years 10,209 2.7% 4,038 3.0%
85 and older 3,382 0.9% 1,351 1.0%
TOTAL 373,077 100% 135,640 100%
Median Age
Source: Esri; RPRG, Inc.
34 36
Bi-County
Market Area
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
28.8%
20.9%
35.8%
14.4%
27.9%
19.6%
36.6%
15.9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Child/Youth
Young
Adults
Adults
Seniors
% Pop
Type
2016 Age Distribution
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
Bi-County Market
Area
# % # %
Married w/Children 29,326 22.8% 11,305 25.0%
Other w/ Children 23,929 18.6% 7,822 17.3%
Households w/ Children 53,255 41.3% 19,127 42.4%
Married w/o Children 28,788 22.4% 11,904 26.4%
Other Family w/o Children 11,118 8.6% 3,623 8.0%
Non-Family w/o Children 5,696 4.4% 1,499 3.3%
Households w/o Children 45,602 35.4% 17,026 37.7%
Singles Living Alone 29,943 23.2% 9,003 19.9%
Singles 29,943 23.2% 9,003 19.9%
Total 128,800 100% 45,156 100%
Source: 2010 Census; RPRG, Inc.
Households by Household
Type
Bi-County Market
Area
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
23.2%
35.4%
41.3%
19.9%
37.7%
42.4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Singles
HH w/o
Children
HH w/
Children
% Households
Household Type
2010 Households by Household Type
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area Bi-County Market Area
HearthSide Lafayette | Demographic Analysis
Page 2 8
households accounted for 53.3 percent of net household growth between 2000 and 2010 in the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area, net growth of 4,549 renter households (Table 11). The renter
percentage in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area increased to 26.5 percent in 2016 and is
projected to increase further to 27.2 percent by 2018; renter households are expected to account for
nearly all (92.4 percent) of net household growth in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area over the
next two years.
Senior renter percentages are lower than total households in both areas. The 2016 renter percentages
for households with a householder age 62+ are 13.9 percent in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
and 19.8 percent in the Bi-County Market Area (Table 12).
Table 11 Households by Tenure
Table 12 Senior Households by Tenure, Age 62+
Over half (51.2 percent) of renter households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area are age 25-44
and 19.4 percent are age 45-54. Only 6.7 percent of renter households are under the age of 25 and
22.8 percent are age 55+ (Table 13). The larger Bi-County Market Area includes higher percentages of
younger renters including all age classifications under age 45.
Bi-County Market Area
2000
2010
Change 2000-
2010
2016 2018
Change 2016-
2018
Housing Units # % # % # % # % # % # %
Owner Occupied 77,096 67.8% 83,356 64.7% 6,260 41.6% 81,673 62.0% 81,357 61.3% -317
Renter Occupied 36,671 32.2% 45,444 35.3% 8,773 58.4% 50,035 38.0% 51,387 38.7% 1,352
Total Occupied 113,767 100% 128,800 100% 15,033 100% 131,708 100% 132,743 100% 1,036 100%
Total Vacant 5,420 16,698 17,075 17,209
TOTAL UNITS 119,187 145,498 148,783 149,953
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
2000 2010
Change 2000-
2010
2016 2018
Change 2016-
2018
Housing Units # % # % # % # % # % # %
Owner Occupied 30,353 82.9% 34,342 76.1% 3,989 46.7% 34,287 73.5% 34,324 72.8% 37 7.6%
Renter Occupied 6,265 17.1% 10,814 23.9% 4,549 53.3% 12,359 26.5% 12,807 27.2% 448 92.4%
Total Occupied 36,618 100% 45,156 100% 8,538 100% 46,646 100% 47,131 100% 485 100%
Total Vacant 1,460 4,772 4,930 4,981
TOTAL UNITS 38,078 49,928 51,576 52,112
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 2000, 2010; Esri, RPRG, Inc.
Senior Households 62+
Bi-County Market
Area
HearthSide
Lafayette Market
Area
2016 Households # % # %
Owner Occupied 25,462 80.2% 10,797 86.1%
Renter Occupied 6,295 19.8% 1,741 13.9%
Total Occupied 31,757 100.0% 12,538 100.0%
Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; ESRI; RPRG
HearthSide Lafayette | Demographic Analysis
Page 2 9
Table 13 Renter Households by Age of Householder
Reflecting its suburban nature and large proportion of families, the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
includes a range of renter household sizes including a relatively high percentage of large renter
households. Roughly 46 percent of all renter households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
contained one or two people including 22.3 percent with one person (Table 14). Approximately 35
percent of renter households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area had three or four people and
large households (those with five or more people) accounted for 18.8 percent of renter households
in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. The Bi-County Market Area has a higher percentage of single
person renter households and a lower percentage of all other renter household sizes when compared
to the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area.
Table 14 2010 Renter Households by Household Size
Renter
Households
Bi-County
Market Area
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
Age of HHldr # % # %
15-24 years 4,649 9.3% 830 6.7%
2
25-34 years 14,617 29.2% 3,442 27.9%
2
35-44 years 11,215 22.4% 2,878 23.3%
1
45-54 years 9,129 18.2% 2,397 19.4%
1
55-64 years 5,899 11.8% 1,530 12.4%
65-74 years 2,897 5.8% 822 6.7%
1
75+ years 1,629 3.3% 460 3.7%
1
Total 50,035 100% 12,359 100%
Source: Esri, Real Property Research Group, Inc.
9.3%
29.2%
22.4%
18.2%
11.8%
5.8%
3.3%
6.7%
27.9%
23.3%
19.4%
12.4%
6.7%
3.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
% Households
Age of Householder
2016 Renter Households by Age of
Householder
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
# % # %
1-person hhld 13,270 29.2% 2,407 22.3%
2-person hhld 10,613 23.4% 2,546 23.5%
3-person hhld 8,062 17.7% 2,096 19.4%
4-person hhld 6,372 14.0% 1,731 16.0%
5+-person hhld 7,127 15.7% 2,034 18.8%
TOTAL 45,444 100% 10,814 100%
Source: 2010 Census
Renter
Occupied
29.2%
23.4%
17.7%
14.0%
15.7%
22.3%
23.5%
19.4%
16.0%
18.8%
0% 20% 40%
1-person
2-person
3-person
4-person
5+-person
% hhlds
Hous ehold Size
2010 Persons per Household Renter
Occupied Units
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
HearthSide Lafayette | Demographic Analysis
Page 3 0
3. Income Characteristics
According to income distributions provided by Esri, the 2016 median income of households in the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is $58,186, which is 18.7 percent higher than the Bi-County Market
Area’s median household income of $49,013 (Table 15). Approximately 21 percent of HearthSide
Lafayette Market Area households earn $15,000 to $34,999 annually and 31.4 percent earn $35,000
to $74,999 per year. Roughly 38 percent of HearthSide Lafayette Market Area households earn
$75,000 or more.
Table 15 2016 Household Income
Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) data and breakdown of tenure
and household estimates, the 2016 median income for senior householders (age 62 and older) in the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is $33,628 for renters and $53,606 for owners (Table 16). Roughly
36 percent of all senior renter householders in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area have an income
from $15,000 to $34,999 per year and one-third earn $35,000 to $74,999.
Table 16 2016 Senior Household Income by Tenure, Households 62+
# % # %
less than $15,000 15,377 11.7% 4,437 9.5% 2
$15,000 $24,999 14,607 11.1% 4,294 9.2% 3
$25,000 $34,999 17,482 13.3% 5,346 11.5% 4
$35,000 $49,999 19,681 14.9% 6,612 14.2% 5
$50,000 $74,999 21,811 16.6% 8,043 17.2% 6
$75,000 $99,999 16,267 12.4% 6,961 14.9% 7
$100,000 $149,999 16,143 12.3% 6,765 14.5% 8
$150,000 Over 10,340 7.9% 4,188 9.0% 9
Total 131,708 100% 46,646 100% 10
Median Income $49,013 $58,186
Source: Esri; Real Property Research Group, Inc.
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
Estimated 2016
Household Income
11.7%
11.1%
13.3%
14.9%
16.6%
12.4%
12.3%
7.9%
9.5%
9.2%
11.5%
14.2%
17.2%
14.9%
14.5%
9.0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
<$15K
$15-$24K
$25-$34K
$35-$49K
$50-$74K
$75-$99K
$100-$149K
$150+k
% Households
Household Income
2016 Household Income
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
Bi-County Market Area
# % # %
less than $15,000
284 16.3% 960 8.9%
2
$15,000 $24,999
305 17.5% 1,030 9.5% 3
$25,000 $34,999
327 18.8% 1,368 12.7% 4
$35,000 $49,999
287 16.5% 1,779 16.5% 5
$50,000 $74,999
297 17.0% 1,816 16.8% 6
$75,000 $99,999
128 7.3% 1,426 13.2%
7
$100,000 $149,999
88 5.1% 1,443 13.4%
8
$150,000 $199,999
20 1.1% 502 4.7%
9
$200,000 over
6 0.3% 473 4.4% 10
Total 1,741 100% 10,797 100%
Median Income
23
Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 Estimates, RPRG, Inc.
Renter
Households
Owner
Households
$33,628 $53,606
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
284
305
327
287
297
128
88
20
6
960
1,030
1,368
1,779
1,816
1,426
1,443
502
473
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
<$15K
$15-$24K
$25-$34K
$35-$49K
$50-$74K
$75-$99K
$100-$149K
$150-$199K
$200K>
# of Households
Household Income
2016 HHIncome by Tenure, Households 62+
Owner Households
Renter Households
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 1
7.COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS
A. Introduction and Sources of Information
This section presents data and analyses pertaining to the supply of rental housing in the HearthSide
Lafayette Market Area. We pursued several avenues of research in an attempt to identify multifamily
rental projects that are in the planning stages or under construction in the HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area. We spoke to planning and zoning officials with the Cities of Fayetteville, Riverdale, and
Jonesboro, as well as officials with Fayette County and Clayton County. We also reviewed the list of
recent LIHTC awards from DCA. The rental survey was conducted in May 2016.
B. Overview of Market Area Housing Stock
The renter occupied housing stock in both areas includes a range of housing types with the market
area containing a lower percentage of multi-family structures than the Bi-County Market Area. Multi-
family structures with five or more units contain 27.3 percent of rental units in the market area and
43.0 percent of rentals in the Bi-County Market Area. Single-family detached homes comprise 53.2
percent of the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area’s renter-occupied units (Table 17).
Reflecting the market area’s strong growth in the 1990’s and the 2000’s, the housing stock in the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is generally newer than in the Bi-County Market Area. The renter-
occupied housing stock in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area has a median year built of 1991
compared to 1986 in the Bi-County Market Area. Over half (51.9 percent) of renter-occupied housing
in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area was built from 1990 to 2009, compared to 43.1 percent in
the Bi-County Market Area. Less than seven percent of rentals in the market area were built prior to
1970. Owner-occupied units followed similar trends in both areas as the median year built was 1991
in the market area and 1988 in the Bi-County Market Area (Table 18).
According to ACS data, the median value among owner-occupied housing units in the HearthSide
Lafayette Market Area from 2010 to 2014 was $149,931, which is $18,362 or 14 percent higher than
the Bi-County Market Area median of $131,569 (Table 19). ACS estimates home values based upon
values from homeowners’ assessments of the values of their homes. This data is traditionally a less
accurate and reliable indicator of home prices in an area than actual sales data, but offers insight of
relative housing values among two or more areas.
Table 17 Dwelling Units by Structure and Tenure
Bi-County
Market Area
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
# % # %
1, detached 18,337 38.7% 6,480 53.2%
1, attached 2,465 5.2% 852 7.0%
2 1,312 2.8% 252 2.1%
3-4 3,396 7.2% 541 4.4%
5-9 9,381 19.8% 1,495 12.3%
10-19 6,487 13.7% 947 7.8%
20+ units 4,523 9.5% 879 7.2%
Mobile home 1,495 3.2% 720 5.9%
Boat, RV, Van 24 0.1% 12 0.1%
TOTAL 47,420 100% 12,178 100%
Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014
Renter
Occupied
53.2%
7.0%
2.1%
4.4%
12.3%
7.8%
7.2%
5.9%
0.1%
38.7%
5.2%
2.8%
7.2%
19.8%
13.7%
9.5%
3.2%
0.1%
0% 20% 40% 60%
1, detached
1, attached
2
3-4
5-9
10-19
20+ units
Mobile home
Boat, RV, Van
% of Dwelling Units
Structure Type
2010-2014 Renter Occupied Units By Structure
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
Bi-County Market Area
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 2
Table 18 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure
Table 19 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock
Bi-County
Market Area
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
HearthSide
Lafayette
Market Area
# % # % # % # %
2010 or later 349 0.4% 185 0.6% 2010 or later 209 0.4% 34 0.3%
2000 to 2009 19,601 25.0% 8,589 26.2% 2000 to 2009 10,504 22.2% 3,160 25.9%
1990 to 1999 17,992 23.0% 8,466 25.8% 1990 to 1999 9,930 20.9% 3,165 26.0%
1980 to 1989 16,747 21.4% 8,229 25.1% 1980 to 1989 9,280 19.6% 2,716 22.3%
1970 to 1979 12,925 16.5% 5,080 15.5% 1970 to 1979 10,286 21.7% 2,297 18.9%
1960 to 1969 7,181 9.2% 1,478 4.5% 1960 to 1969 4,536 9.6% 502 4.1%
1950 to 1959 2,101 2.7% 238 0.7% 1950 to 1959 1,682 3.5% 199 1.6%
1940 to 1949 726 0.9% 192 0.6% 1940 to 1949 497 1.0% 40 0.3%
1939 or earlier 679 0.9% 307 0.9% 1939 or earlier 496 1.0% 65 0.5%
TOTAL 78,301 100% 32,764 100% TOTAL 47,420 100% 12,178 100%
MEDIAN YEAR
BUILT
1988 1991
MEDIAN YEAR
BUILT
1986 1991
Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014
Owner
Occupied
Renter
Occupied
# % # %
less than $60,000 11,488 15.0% 3,871 12.1%
$60,000 $99,999 16,647 21.8% 6,158 19.2%
$100,000 $149,999 14,927 19.5% 5,993 18.7%
$150,000 $199,999 12,124 15.8% 6,434 20.1%
$200,000 $299,999 11,586 15.1% 5,858 18.3%
$300,000 $399,999 4,772 6.2% 1,813 5.7%
$400,000 $499,999 2,365 3.1% 871 2.7%
$500,000 $749,999 1,862 2.4% 744 2.3%
$750,000 over 765 1.0% 285 0.9%
Total 76,536 100% 32,027 100%
Median Value
Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014
2010-2014 Home
Value
Bi-County Market
Area
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
$131,569
$149,931
15.0%
21.8%
19.5%
15.8%
15.1%
6.2%
3.1%
2.4%
1.0%
12.1%
19.2%
18.7%
20.1%
18.3%
5.7%
2.7%
2.3%
0.9%
0% 10% 20% 30%
< $60K
$60-$99K
$100-149k
$150-$199K
$200-$299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
$750>
% of Owner Occupied Dwellings
Home Value ($000s)
2010-2014 Home Value
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
Bi-County Market Area
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 3
C. Survey of Age-Restricted Rental Communities
1. Introduction to the Age-Restricted Rental Housing Survey
Several assisted living senior communities were identified in the market area including Dogwood
Forest of Fayetteville, Hope Assisted Living and Memory Care Center, and Azalea Estates of
Fayetteville; however, these communities were not included in our survey as they are all service-
enriched (i.e. the communities offer amenities such as meals, housekeeping, and medical services)
and not comparable to the independent living units proposed at HearthSide Lafayette. Given the lack
of senior rental communities in the market area, RPRG surveyed two independent senior rental
communities just outside the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area, both of which were funded through
the Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) Program. While located in different submarkets in
Peachtree City and Clayton County, these properties offer insight into the performance and
achievable rents of senior LIHTC units within the region. Profile sheets with detailed information on
each surveyed community, including photographs, are attached as Appendix 7.
2. Location
HearthSide Peachtree City is 9.5 miles west of the site in Peachtree City and Valley Hill is roughly ten
miles northeast of the site in Riverdale (Map 6). Both properties are located in generally similarly
developed suburban communities to that of the subject property with access to community amenities
and generally similar neighborhood composition. The Valley Hill site in Riverdale is surrounded by
slightly older land uses than the subject site and Hearthside Peachtree City, but does not operate at a
significant disadvantage.
3. Age-Restricted Rental Housing Characteristics
HearthSide Peachtree City is a three-story mid-rise community with a brick/stone and HardiPlank
siding exterior, interior access hallways, an elevator, and covered building entrance, all comparable
to the subject property. HearthSide Peachtree City was constructed by the developer of the subject
property (NorSouth Development) and shares similar design characteristics. Valley Hill is a single-
story community with brick/siding exteriors. HearthSide Peachtree City has 96 units and was built in
2014 and Valley Hill has 72 units and was built in 2002.
4. Vacancy Rates
Both surveyed senior communities were fully occupied and Hearthside Peachtree City had a waiting
list of roughly 250 people (Table 20). HearthSide Peachtree City opened in February 2014 and leased
all 96 units by October 2014, an average monthly absorption of 12 units.
5. Unit Distribution
Both surveyed senior rental communities offer one and two bedroom units including 48.8 percent
one-bedroom units and 51.2 percent two-bedroom units (Table 20). HearthSide Peachtree City is
weighted heavy toward two bedroom units (83 percent), while Valley Hill is more concentrated in one
bedroom units (91 percent).
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 4
Map 6 Surveyed Senior Rental Communities
Table 20 Senior Rental Summary
Total Vacant Vacancy One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units
Community Type Units Units Rate Units Rent (1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent (1) SF Rent/SF
Subject Property Mid-Rise 125 50 $755 752 $1.00 75 $897 1,015 $0.88
50% units 25 10 $445 752 $0.59 15 $525 1,015 $0.52
60% units 50 20 $565 752 $0.75 30 $680 1,015 $0.67
Market 50 20 $1,100 752 $1.46 30 $1,300 1,015 $1.28
1. HearthSide Peachtree City Mid-Rise 96 0 0.0% 16 $683 752 $0.91 80 $790 960 $0.82
Year Built: 2014 50% units 17 0 3 $520 752 $0.69 14 $612 960 $0.64
60% units 65 0 11 $644 752 $0.86 54 $732 960 $0.76
Market 14 0 2 $1,140 752 $1.52 12 $1,257 960 $1.31
2. Valley Hill Single story 72 0 0.0% 66 $641 672 $0.95 6 $712 860 $0.83
Year Built: 2002 50% units 5 0 4 $580 672 $0.86 1 $687 860 $0.80
60% units 51 0 48 $633 672 $0.94 3 $709 860 $0.82
Market 16 0 14 $685 672 $1.02 2 $730 860 $0.85
Overall Total 168 0 0.0%
Unsubsidized Total/Average 168 82 $700 712 $0.98 86 $788 910 $0.87
% of Total Unsubsidized 100.0% 48.8% 51.2%
(1) Rent is adjusted to include only Trash and incentives
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 5
6. Effective Rents
Effective rents, adjusted net of utilities and incentives, are shown in Table 20. For the purposes of
this analysis, the net rents represent the hypothetical situation where trash removal utility costs are
included in monthly rents at all communities, with tenants responsible for other utility costs. Net
rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot for the senior rental units outside of the market area are
provided below.
One bedroom units had an average effective rent of $700. Based on an average unit size of
712 square feet, this equates to $0.98 per square foot. One-bedroom effective rents were
$520, $644, and $1,140 for the 50 percent AMI, 60 percent AMI, and market rate units,
respectively, at HearthSide Peachtree City. One-bedroom effective rents were $580, $633,
and $685 for the 50 percent AMI, 60 percent AMI, and market rate units, respectively, at
Valley Hill. Effective market rate rents were nearly $500 higher at the newer, amenity-rich,
HearthSide Peachtree City when compared to Valley Hill.
Two bedroom units had an average effective rent of $788. Based on an average unit size of
910 square feet, this equates to $0.87 per square foot. Two-bedroom effective rents were
$612, $732, and $1,257 for the 50 percent AMI, 60 percent AMI, and market rate units,
respectively, at HearthSide Peachtree City. One-bedroom effective rents were $687, $709,
and $730 for the 50 percent AMI, 60 percent AMI, and market rate units, respectively, at
Valley Hill. Effective market rate rents were roughly $500 higher at HearthSide Peachtree City
when compared to Valley Hill.
7. Payment of Utility Costs
Both surveyed communities include the cost of water/sewer and trash removal in the price of rent
(Table 21). The subject property will include the cost of trash removal in rent.
8. Unit Features
Both surveyed communities offer a dishwasher, grab bars, and washer and dryer connections in each
unit; HearthSide Peachtree City offers a microwave in each unit. The proposed HearthSide Lafayette
will offer in-unit features comparable to surveyed senior rental communities including dishwashers,
microwaves, grab bars, and washer/dryer connections in each unit.
Table 21 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features, Senior Communities
9. Community Amenities
HearthSide Peachtree City offers extensive community amenities including a multi-purpose room,
library, gardening, arts and crafts room, business/computer center, barber shop / beauty salon,
theater, and fitness center. Valley Hill offers far less amenities including a multi-purpose room,
gardening, a fitness center, and a business/computer center. HearthSide Lafayette’ community
amenities will be comparable to those offered at HearthSide Peachtree City and superior to those
Utilities included in Rent
Community Type
Heat
Cooking
Electric
Water
Trash
Dish-
washer
Micro-
wave
Laundry
Grab
Bar
Subject Property LIHTC
STD
STD
Hook Ups
STD
HearthSide Peachtree City LIHTC
STD STD Hook Ups STD
Valley Hill LIHTC
STD Hook Ups STD
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2016.
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 6
offered at Valley Hill. Amenities proposed at the subject property include a multi-purpose room,
business/computer center, fitness center, arts and crafts center, meida center/theater, library, beauty
salon, laundry room, covered pavilion with tables and chairs, fenced community gardens, and a
leasing/management office. These amenities are appropriate for the target market (seniors age 62
or older).
Table 22 Community Amenities, Senior Communities
D.Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities
1.
Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey
In addition to senior-oriented rental communities, RPRG surveyed 20 general occupancy communities
in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area including 18 market rate and two LIHTC communities.
Although not considered direct competition for the subject property, these general occupancy rental
communities represent an alternative rental housing option for seniors in the HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area. Accordingly, we believe these communities can have some impact on the pricing and
positioning of the subject community. Their performance also lends insight into the overall health
and competitiveness of the rental environment in the area. Profile sheets with detailed information
on each surveyed community, including photographs, are attached as Appendix 7.
2.
Location
Five market rate communities are in Fayetteville within two miles of the site, three communities are
in Hampton to the east, and the majority (12 communities) are in the Jonesboro/Riverdale area to the
northeast. Both surveyed LIHTC communities are in Riverdale, roughly eight to nine miles northeast
of the site. All communities in Fayetteville are among the top half priced communities in the market
area (Map 7). Taking into account access to community amenities/services, neighborhood
composition, and traffic arteries, the subject site is considered generally comparable or superior to
existing rental communities in the market area including the two LIHTC communities.
3.
Size of Communities
The surveyed communities range from 92 to 424 units and average 205 units. The LIHTC communities
offer 130 units (Pinebrooke) and 294 units (Shadow Ridge) for an average of 212 units. Among all
surveyed communities, all with the exception of Sutter Lake (424 units) have less than 300 units
including half (ten communities) with 200 to 294 units.
Community
Multipurpose
Room
Gardening
Walking Paths
Library
Arts& Crafts
Theatre
Fitness Center
Business Center
Barber Shop
Subject Property
HearthSide Peachtree City
Valley Hill
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2016.
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 7
Map 7 Surveyed Rental Communities
4.
Age of Communities
The average year built of all surveyed communities in the market area is 1993 including two LIHTC
communities with an average year built of 1999. Six communities have been built since 2000 including
the three highest priced communities in the market area. The newest and highest priced community
(Villas at Hampton) in the market area was built in 2005. The newest LIHTC community, Shadow
Ridge, was built in 2000.
5.
Structure Type
All surveyed communities offer garden style units including six that also offer townhomes. Among
the LIHTC communities, Shadow Ridge offers garden units exclusively while Pinebrooke offers garden
and townhome units.
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 8
6.
Vacancy Rates
Among the 19 surveyed communities reporting occupancy, 112 of 3,667 units were vacant for an
aggregate vacancy rate of 3.1 percent; management at Sutter Lake refused to provide occupancy
information. Sixteen communities had a vacancy rate of less than five percent including 11 with a
vacancy rate of less than three percent. The two LIHTC communities combined for 12 vacancies
among 424 total units, an aggregate vacancy rate of 2.8 percent.
7.
Rent Concessions
Sutter Lake, a market rate community, was offering $200 off a 12-month lease and Pinebrooke, a
LIHTC community, was offering reduced rents on two and three bedroom units despite a vacancy rate
of 2.3 percent.
8.
Absorption History
The newest surveyed community in the market area was built in 2005 (Villas at Hampton), lease-up
information was not available nor relevant.
Table 23 Rental Summary, Surveyed General Occupancy Communities
Map Year Structure Total Vacant Vacancy Avg 1BR Avg 2BR
# Community Built Type Units Units Rate Rent (1) Rent (1) Incentive
1 Villas at Hampton 2005 Gar 224 7 3.1% $881 $1,042 None
2 Cobblestone 2002 Gar 248 5 2.0% $819 $954 None
3 Lakeside Villas 2002 Gar 250 10 4.0% $747 $948 None
4 Weatherly Walk 1988 Gar 194 2 1.0% $745 $905 None
5 Sutter Lake 1988 Gar 424 N/A N/A $787 $902 $200 off lease.
6 Brandywine at LaFayette 1989 Gar 113 2 1.8% $760 $895 None
7 Clarendon Place 1998 Gar/TH 108 0 0.0% $775 $879 None
8 Wynthrope Forest 1999 Gar 270 7 2.6% $725 $868 None
9 Swanbrook Manor 1988 Gar 92 4 4.3% $735 $852 None
10 Walden Landing 2000 Gar 240 3 1.3% $747 $845 None
11 Villas by the Lake 2003 Gar 256 5 2.0% $740 $840 None
12 Shadow Ridge* 2000 Gar 294 9 3.1% $737 $832 None
13 Brooks Crossing 1990 Gar 224 18 8.0% $775 $830 None
14 The Reserve at Garden Lake 1990 Gar/TH 272 0 0.0% $648 $785 None
15 Canterbury TH's 1998 Gar/TH 160 10 6.3% None
16 Chase Ridge 1985 Gar 176 2 1.1% $699 $763 None
17 Vineyard Pointe 1989 Gar 100 0 0.0% $580 $757 None
18 Pinebrooke* 1997 Gar/TH 130 3 2.3% $732 Reduced rent - 2&3 BR
19 Flint River Crossing 1971 Gar/TH 200 20 10.0% $732 None
20 Hidden Pines at Tara 1969 Gar/TH 116 5 4.3% $675 None
Total 4,091
Reporting Total 3,667 112 3.1%
Average 1993 205 $744 $844
LIHTC Total 424 12 2.8%
LIHTC Average 1999 212 $737 $782
Tax Credit Communities*
(1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2016.
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 3 9
9.
Payment of Utility Costs
Among the 20 surveyed communities, a majority (11 communities) include no utilities in the price of
rent while five include water/sewer and trash removal and four include trash removal only. Among
the LIHTC communities, Shadow Ridge includes trash removal only and Pinebrooke includes
water/sewer and trash removal in the price of rent (Table 24). HearthSide Lafayette will include the
cost of trash removal.
10.
Unit Features
All surveyed communities include a dishwasher and washer and dryer connections in each unit and
four include a microwave as a standard feature. Both LIHTC communities include a dishwasher and
washer and dryer connections; Shadow Ridge also includes a microwave.
11.
Parking
All communities include free surface parking as a standard feature. Seven communities offer optional
detached garages for an additional monthly fee ranging from free $50 to $100 per month.
12.
Community Amenities
The surveyed communities in the market area generally offer extensive community amenities. The
most common amenities are a swimming pool (17 properties), a clubhouse/community room (14
properties), a playground (14 properties), a fitness center (11 properties), a tennis court (11
properties), and a business/computer center (10 properties); six communities are gated (Table 25).
Table 24 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features
Community
Heat
Hot Water
Cooking
Electric
Water
Trash
Dish-
washer
Micro-
wave Parking
In-Unit
Laundry
Villas at Hampton
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Cobblestone
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Lakeside Villas
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Weatherly Walk
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Sutter Lake
STD STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Brandywine at LaFayette
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Clarendon Place
STD STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Wynthrope Forest
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Swanbrook Manor
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Walden Landing
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Villas by the Lake
STD STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Shadow Ridge
STD STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Brooks Crossing
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
The Reserve at Garden Lake
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Chase Ridge
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Vineyard Pointe
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Pinebrooke
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Flint River Crossing
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Hidden Pines at Tara
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Canterbury TH's
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2016.
Utilities Included in Rent
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 0
Table 25 Community Amenities
13.
Unit Distribution
Fourteen of the 20 surveyed communities reported a unit mix, accounting for roughly two-thirds (65.5
percent) of the total surveyed units. Among these communities, two bedroom units are the most
common at 49.9 percent of surveyed units. One bedroom units comprise 28.9 percent of surveyed
units and three bedroom units comprise 20.4 percent of surveyed units (Table 26). Pinebrooke, a
LIHTC community, offers 23 four-bedroom units.
14.
Effective Rents
Unit rents presented in Table 26 are net or effective rents, as opposed to street or advertised rents.
To arrive at effective rents, we apply adjustments to street rents in order to control for current rental
incentives and to equalize the impact of utility expenses across complexes. Specifically, the net rents
Community
Clubhouse
Fitness
Room
Pool
Playground
Tennis Court
Business
Center
Gated Entry
Villas at Hampton
Cobblestone
Lakeside Villas
Weatherly Walk
Sutter Lake
Brandywine at LaFayette
Clarendon Place
Wynthrope Forest
Swanbrook Manor
Walden Landing
Villas by the Lake
Shadow Ridge
Brooks Crossing
The Reserve at Garden Lake
Chase Ridge
Vineyard Pointe
Pinebrooke
Flint River Crossing
Hidden Pines at Tara
Canterbury TH's
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2016.
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 1
represent the hypothetical situation where trash removal utility costs are included in monthly rents
at all communities, with tenants responsible for other utility costs.
Among the surveyed rental communities, net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot were as
follows:
One-bedroom
effective rents averaged $743 per month. The average one bedroom unit size
was 787 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.94. The range for one
bedroom effective rents was $590 to $891.
Two-bedroom
effective rents averaged $837 per month. The average two bedroom unit size
was 1,056 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.79. The range for two
bedroom effective rents was $630 to $1,052.
The average rents include market rents and LIHTC units at 50 percent and 60 percent AMI. The highest
priced market rate units are well above these overall averages.
Table 26 Unit Distribution, Size, and Pricing
Total
Community Units Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF
Villas at Hampton 224 74 $891 819 $1.09 100 $1,052 1,216 $0.87 50 $1,174 1,474 $0.80
Cobblestone 248 40 $829 908 $0.91 176 $964 1,152 $0.84 32 $1,064 1,390 $0.77
Lakeside Villas 250 $757 833 $0.91 $958 1,289 $0.74 $1,037 1,470 $0.71
Weatherly Walk 194 54 $745 749 $1.00 100 $905 1,034 $0.88 40 $1,015 1,247 $0.81
Brandywine at LaFayette 113 57 $760 720 $1.06 56 $895 1,050 $0.85
Wynthrope Forest 270 88 $735 806 $0.91 146 $878 1,163 $0.75 36 $985 1,433 $0.69
Sutter Lake 424 $755 765 $0.99 $865 1,020 $0.85
Shadow Ridge 70 28 $760 801 $0.95 42 $860 1,002 $0.86
Walden Landing 240 $757 980 $0.77 $855 1,166 $0.73 $928 1,403 $0.66
Villas by the Lake 256 49 $750 871 $0.86 207 $850 1,160 $0.73
Brooks Crossing 224 24 $785 725 $1.08 96 $840 1,008 $0.83 104 $892 1,163 $0.77
Clarendon Place 108 36 $735 908 $0.81 72 $839 1,117 $0.75
Swanbrook Manor 92 83 $720 576 $1.25 9 $832 864 $0.96
Shadow Ridge* 60% AMI 224 56 $725 801 $0.91 168 $825 1,002 $0.82
The Reserve at Garden Lake 272 105 $658 720 $0.91 119 $795 1,085 $0.73 48 $892 1,349 $0.66
Vineyard Pointe 100 80 $590 576 $1.02 20 $767 864 $0.89
Canterbury TH's 160 160 $870 1,197 $0.73
Chase Ridge 176 $684 830 $0.82 $743 1,150 $0.65
Flint River Crossing 200 $712 907 $0.79 $775 1,080 $0.72
Hidden Pines at Tara 116 $685 900 $0.76
Pinebrooke* 50% AMI 130 24 $630 976 $0.65 76 $725 1,179 $0.62
Total/Average 4,091 $743 787 $0.94 $837 1,056 $0.79 $941 1,308 $0.72
Unit Distribution 2,678 774 1,335 546
% of Total 65.5% 28.9% 49.9% 20.4%
Tax Credit Communities*
Rent adjusted $40 for including cable
(1) Rent is adjusted to include only Trash and incentives
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2016.
One Bedroom Units
Two Bedroom Units
Three Bedroom Units
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
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15.
DCA Average Market Rent
To determine average “market rents” as outlined in DCA’s 2016 Market Study Manual, market rate
rents were averaged at the most comparable communities in the market area to the proposed
HearthSide Lafayette. These include all surveyed general occupancy market rate units in the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. It is important to note, “average market rents” are not adjusted
to reflect differences in age, unit size, or amenities relative to the subject property. No senior rental
community rents were included in the determination of the average market rents as both surveyed
senior communities were outside the market area.
The “average market rent” among comparable communities is $744 for one bedroom units and $850
for two bedroom units (Table 27). The proposed 50 percent rents at the subject property have rent
advantages of 38.2 and 40.2 percent and the proposed 60 percent rents have rent advantages of 20.0
and 24.1 percent. The overall rent advantage among proposed LIHTC units is 27.4 percent. The
proposed market rate rents are roughly 50 percent higher than the average market rents in the market
area; however, they are comparable to market rate rents at HearthSide Peachtree City, the most
comparable community to the subject property. All market rate units at HearthSide Peachtree City
are occupied.
Table 27 Average Market Rent, Most Comparable Communities
Community Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Rent(1) SF Rent/SF
Villas at Hampton $891 819 $1.09 $1,052 1,216 $0.87
Cobblestone $829 908 $0.91 $964 1,152 $0.84
Lakeside Villas $757 833 $0.91 $958 1,289 $0.74
Weatherly Walk $745 749 $1.00 $905 1,034 $0.88
Brandywine at LaFayette $760 720 $1.06 $895 1,050 $0.85
Wynthrope Forest $735 806 $0.91 $878 1,163 $0.75
Sutter Lake $755 765 $0.99 $865 1,020 $0.85
Shadow Ridge $760 801 $0.95 $860 1,002 $0.86
Walden Landing $757 980 $0.77 $855 1,166 $0.73
Villas by the Lake $750 871 $0.86 $850 1,160 $0.73
Brooks Crossing $785 725 $1.08 $840 1,008 $0.83
Clarendon Place $735 908 $0.81 $839 1,117 $0.75
Swanbrook Manor $720 576 $1.25 $832 864 $0.96
The Reserve at Garden Lake $658 720 $0.91 $795 1,085 $0.73
Vineyard Pointe $590 576 $1.02 $767 864 $0.89
Chase Ridge $684 830 $0.82 $743 1,150 $0.65
Flint River Crossing $712 907 $0.79
Hidden Pines at Tara $685 900 $0.76
Total/Average $744 787 $0.95 $850 1,064 $0.80
Rent adjusted $40 for including cable
(1) Rent is adjusted to include only Trash and incentives
Source: Field Survey, Real Property Research Group, Inc. May 2016.
One Bedroom Units
Two Bedroom Units
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 3
Table 28 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary
E. Interviews
Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the various
sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property managers, Julie Brown
with the Fayetteville Planning and Zoning Department, staff with the Fayette County Planning and
Zoning Department, staff with the Clayton County Planning and Zoning Department, Ellis Still with the
Riverdale Planning, Zoning, and Economic Development Department, staff with the Jonesboro Zoning
Division, and Janice Wiggins with the Jonesboro Housing Authority.
F. Multi-Family Pipeline
Based on information provided by county/city planning and zoning officials and DCA’s list of LIHTC
allocations, no comparable senior rental communities were identified as in the development pipeline
in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. A general occupancy, 210-unit, market rate rental
community (Lafayette Square) is under construction adjacent to the site to the west; this community
will not be comparable to the subject property as the subject will be age-restricted. Lafayette Square
is expected to have rents at or near the top of the market; rents are expected to range from $800 to
$890 for one-bedroom units, $1,190 to $1,440 for two-bedroom units, and be $1,500 for three-
bedroom units.
A service-enriched senior rental community including independent, assisted living, and memory care
units was approved recently for construction at the corner of Ginger Cake Road and Highway 54 in
Fayetteville, just over one mile west of the subject site. As this community is service-enriched
(offering services including meals and medical services), it is not considered comparable to the subject
property. Two additional general occupancy market rate communities are in the preliminary stages
of development in Fayetteville including 310 total units; planners were unable to provide a timeline
or location for the two proposed communities. Like Lafayette Square, these communities will not be
comparable to the senior-oriented units at the subject property.
G.Existing Low Income Rental Housing
The table and map on the following pages show the location of the subject site in relation to existing
low-income rental housing properties, including those with tax credits (Table 29, Map 8). The market
1 BR 2 BR
Average Market Rent $744 $850
Proposed 50% AMI Rent $445 $525
Advantage ($) $299 $325
Advantage (%) 40.2% 38.2%
Total Units 10 15
Proposed 60% AMI Rent $565 $680
Advantage ($) $179 $170
Advantage (%) 24.1% 20.0%
Total Units 20 30
Overall LIHTC Rent Advantage 27.4%
Proposed Market Rent $1,100 $1,300
Advantage ($) -$356 -$450
Advantage (%) -47.8% -53.0%
Total Units 20 30
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 4
area has a limited affordable rental housing stock. The two LIHTC communities were surveyed as part
of our analysis and the Section 8 community (Riverwood Townhouses) was not as it is deeply
subsidized and not comparable to the subject property.
Table 29 Subsidized Communities, HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
H.Housing Authority Data
The closest housing authority to the subject site is the Jonesboro Housing Authority; Fayetteville and
Fayette County do not have housing authorities. The housing authority operates one public housing
community that has 30 units and a long waiting list The Jonesboro Housing Authority also manages
1,878 Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers for which 1,270 households are on the waiting list. Georgia
DCA currently allocates 62 Section 8 vouchers to Fayette County and the waiting list is unknown.
Map 8 Subsidized Rental Communities
Community Subsidy Type Address City Distance
Shadow Ridge LIHTC Family 950 Lake Ridge Pkwy. Riverdale 8.2 miles
Pinebrooke LIHTC Family 9170 Dorsey Rd. Riverdale 9.2 miles
Riverwood Townhouses Section 8 Family 681 Flint River Rd. Jonesboro 8.8 miles
Source: HUD, GA DCA
HearthSide Lafayette | Competitive Housing Analysis
Page 4 5
I. Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes
Based on field observations, very limited abandoned / vacant single and multi-family homes exist in
the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. To understand the state of foreclosure in the community
around the subject site, we tapped data available through RealtyTrac, a web site aimed primarily at
assisting interested parties in the process of locating and purchasing properties in foreclosure and at
risk of foreclosure. RealtyTrac classifies properties in its database into several different categories,
among them three that are relevant to our analysis: 1.) pre-foreclosure property – a property with
loans in default and in danger of being repossessed or auctioned, 2.) auction property – a property
that lien holders decide to sell at public auctions, once the homeowner’s grace period has expired, in
order to dispose of the property as quickly as possible, and 3.) bank-owned property – a unit that has
been repossessed by lenders. We included properties within these three foreclosure categories in
our analysis. We queried the RealtyTrac database for ZIP code 30214 in which the subject property
will be located and the broader areas of Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia, and the United States
for comparison purposes.
Our RealtyTrac search revealed 0.08 percent of units were in a state of foreclosure within the subject
property’s ZIP code (30214) in April 2016, the most recent month data was available. By comparison,
Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia, and the nation reported monthly foreclosure rates of 0.05
percent, 0.05 percent, 0.07 percent, and 0.08 percent, respectively (Table 30). Over the past year,
the monthly number of foreclosures in the subject property’s ZIP Code ranged from a five to 15.
While the conversion of such properties can affect the demand for new multi-family rental housing in
some markets, the impact on senior oriented communities is typically limited. In many instances,
senior householders “downsize” living accommodations (move from a larger unit to a smaller unit)
due to the higher upkeep and long-term cost. As such, the convenience of on-site amenities and the
more congregate style living offered at age restricted communities is preferable to lower density unit
types, such as single-family detached homes, most common to abandonment and/or foreclosure.
Overall, we do not believe foreclosed, abandoned, or vacant single/multi-family homes will impact
the subject property’s ability to lease its units.
Table 30 Foreclosure Rate and Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 30214
Geography
April 2016
Foreclosure Rate
ZIP Code: 30214 0.08%
Fayetteville 0.05%
Fayette County 0.05%
Georgia 0.07%
National 0.08%
Source: Realtytrac.com
0.08%
0.05% 0.05%
0.07%
0.08%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
ZIP Code: 30214
Month
# of
Foreclosures
May 2015 12
June 2015 13
July 2015 15
August 2015 6
September 2015 5
October 2015 9
November 2015 9
December 2015 9
January 2016 6
February 2016 9
March 2016 8
April 2016 9
Source: Realtytrac.com
12
13
15
6
5
9
9 9
6
9
8
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Properties
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 4 6
8.FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
A. Key Findings
Based on the preceding review of the subject project and demographic and competitive housing
trends in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area, RPRG offers the following key findings:
1.
Site and Neighborhood Analysis
The subject site is a suitable location for affordable senior rental housing as it is compatible with
surrounding land uses, has excellent visibility from West Lanier Avenue (State Highway 54), and has
ample access to amenities, services, and major thoroughfares.
The site for HearthSide Lafayette is at the northwest corner of the West Lanier Avenue (State
Highway 54) and Meeting Place Drive intersection, approximately one-half mile west of
downtown Fayetteville, Fayette County, Georgia. Bordering land uses include single-family
detached homes, a hotel, a business park, and the future site of Lafayette Square Apartments,
a luxury market rate multi-family rental community.
Community services, neighborhood shopping centers, medical services, and recreational
venues are all within three miles of the site including grocery stores, pharmacies, a senior
center, medical facilities, banks, and convenience stores within two miles.
HearthSide Lafayette will have excellent visibility from West Lanier Avenue (State Highway
54) which has steady traffic.
The subject site’s surrounding land use characteristics, which include a mixture of
commercial, residential, and institutional development, are compatible with a senior-
oriented multi-family community.
2.
Economic Context
Over the past four years, Fayette County’s economy has shown signs of stabilization with declining
unemployment rates and steady job growth following a notable decline during the national recession.
The unemployment rate in Fayette County has decreased significantly to 5.1 percent in 2015
from a recession era high of 8.4 percent in 2009. The county’s unemployment rate is lower
than both state (5.9 percent) and national (5.4 percent) rates.
Fayette County has added 2,858 net jobs over the past four years and has added 1,220 jobs
through the third quarter of 2015, nearly recouping all losses incurred during the recession.
Several job expansions recently announced in Fayette County and the newly developed and
expanding Pinewood Studios Atlanta are positive indicators of future growth in the county’s
economy. We do not expect current economic conditions in Fayette County to negatively
impact the proposed development of HearthSide Lafayette.
3.
Population and Household Trends
The HearthSide Lafayette Market Area experienced strong population and household growth during
the previous decade. Steady growth has continued over the past six years, albeit at a slower pace,
and growth is expected to continue over the next two years. Senior household growth is expected to
outpace total household growth significantly on a percentage basis over the next two years.
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 4 7
Between 2000 and 2010 Census counts, the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area added 25,436
people (23.9 percent) and 8,538 households (23.3 percent). From 2016 to 2018, the
population and household base of the market area are projected to increase at an annual rate
of 0.5 percent or 628 people and 242 households per year.
Between 2016 and 2018, households with householders age 62+ are projected to increase by
2.9 percent or 369 households per year. The total number of households with householders
age 62+ in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is projected to be 13,277 in 2018.
4.
Demographic Trends
The demographics of the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area reflects its suburban location with a high
percentage of family renter households, relatively low renter percentage, and higher incomes.
The renter percentage in the market area is projected to increase from 23.9 percent in 2010
to 27.2 percent in 2018; roughly 92 percent of net household growth (448 households) over
the next two years is expected to be renter households. The senior (62+) renter percentage
in the market area is 13.9 percent in 2016.
Seniors (age 62 and older) comprise 15.9 percent of the population in the HearthSide
Lafayette Market Area. Given its suburban nature, roughly two-thirds of people in the market
area are either Adults (age 35 to 61) or Children/Youth under 20 years old.
Roughly 80 percent of market area households have two or more people including 37.7
percent with no children; households with two or more people and no children include empty
nesters. Approximately 20 percent of market area households are single person households.
Roughly 23 percent of renters in the market are age 55 or older including 10.4 percent age 65
or older.
The 2016 median income of households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is $58,186,
which is 18.7 percent higher than the Bi-County Market Area’s median household income of
$49,013. The 2016 median income for senior renter households (age 62 and older) in the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is $33,628. Roughly 36 percent of all senior renter
householders (62+) in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area earn $15,000 to $34,999 per year
and one-third (33.5 percent) earn $35,000 to $74,999 annually.
5.
Competitive Housing Analysis
RPRG surveyed two senior LIHTC rental communities just outside the market area and 20 general
occupancy rental communities in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. No affordable senior
communities are located inside the market area so the two senior LIHTC communities just outside the
market area were included the survey. Both the senior and general occupancy rental markets were
performing well at the time of our survey.
Senior Rental Communities:
Both senior LIHTC communities just outside the market area were fully occupied and
HearthSide Peachtree City had a waiting list of roughly 250 people. HearthSide Peachtree City
opened in February 2014 and leased all 96 units by October 2014, an average monthly
absorption of 12 units.
Net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot for the surveyed senior rental units are as
follows:
One bedroom units
had an average effective rent of $700 for an average of 712
square feet or $0.98 per square foot. One-bedroom effective rents were $520 to
$1,140 at HearthSide Peachtree City and $580 to $685 at Valley Hill. Effective market
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 4 8
rate rents were nearly $500 higher at the newer, amenity-rich, HearthSide Peachtree
City when compared to Valley Hill.
Two bedroom units
had an average effective rent of $788 for an average of 910
square feet or $0.86 per square foot. Two-bedroom effective rents were $612 to
$1,257 at HearthSide Peachtree City and $687 to $730 at Valley Hill. Effective market
rate rents were roughly $500 higher at HearthSide Peachtree City when compared to
Valley Hill.
General Occupancy Rental Communities:
The 19 general occupancy rental communities reporting occupancy had 112 vacancies among
3,667 total units, an aggregate vacancy rate of 3.1 percent; management at Sutter Lake
refused to provide occupancy information. The two LIHTC communities reported 12 of 424
units vacant for a rate of 2.8 percent.
Among surveyed general occupancy rental communities, net rents, unit sizes, and rents per
square foot are as follows:
One-bedroom
units
had an average effective rent of $743, an average unit size of 787
square feet, and an average rent per square foot of $0.94.
Two-bedroom
units
had an average effective rent of $837, an average unit size of
1,056 square feet, and an average rent per square foot of $0.79.
The “average market rent” among comparable communities is $744 for one bedroom units
and $850 for two bedroom units. Proposed 50 percent rents at the subject property have
rent advantages of at least 38 percent and proposed 60 percent rents have rent advantages
of at least 20 percent. The overall rent advantage among proposed LIHTC units is 27.4
percent. The proposed market rate rents are roughly 50 percent higher than the average
market rents in the market area; however, they are comparable to market rate rents at
HearthSide Peachtree City, the most comparable community to the subject property. All
market rate units at HearthSide Peachtree City are occupied.
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 4 9
B. Affordability Analysis
1.
Methodology
The Affordability Analysis tests the percentage of age and income-qualified households (62+) in the
market area that the subject community must capture in order to achieve full occupancy.
The first component of the Affordability Analyses involves looking at the total household income
distribution and renter household income distribution among HearthSide Lafayette Market Area
households for the target year of 2018. RPRG calculated the income distribution for both total
households and renter households based on the relationship between owner and renter household
incomes by income cohort from the 2010-2014 American Community Survey along with estimates
and projected income growth by Esri (Table 31).
A particular housing unit is typically said to be affordable to households that would be expending a
certain percentage of their annual income or less on the expenses related to living in that unit. In the
case of rental units, these expenses are generally of two types – monthly contract rents paid to
landlords and payment of utility bills for which the tenant is responsible. The sum of the contract rent
and utility bills is referred to as a household’s ‘gross rent burden’. For the Affordability Analysis of
this age restricted community, RPRG employs a 40 percent gross rent burden.
The proposed LIHTC units at HearthSide Lafayette will target renter households earning up to 50
percent and 60 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted for household size. RPRG
assumed that the target market for the market rate units includes future renters earning as much as
120 percent of AMI. Maximum income limits are derived from 2015 HUD income limits
(per Georgia
DCA requirements)
for the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA (Table 32). The minimum income
limits are calculated assuming up to 40 percent of income is spent on total housing cost (rent plus
utilities). The maximum allowable incomes for LIHTC units are based on a maximum household size
of two people for both one and two bedroom units. Maximum gross rents, however, are based on
the federal regulation of 1.5 persons per bedroom.
Table 31 2018 Total and Renter Income Distribution, 62+
# % # %
less than $15,000
1,277 9.6% 308 16.3%
$15,000 $24,999
1,259 9.5% 303 16.1%
$25,000 $34,999
1,653 12.5% 336 17.8%
$35,000 $49,999
2,139 16.1% 314 16.6%
$50,000 $74,999
2,229 16.8% 330 17.5%
$75,000 $99,999
1,773 13.4% 154 8.2%
$100,000 $149,999
1,754 13.2% 107 5.7%
$150,000 Over
1,194 9.0% 33 1.7%
Total 13,277 100% 1,885 100%
Median Income
Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014 Projections, RPRG, Inc.
HearthSide Lafayette
Market Area
$53,490
$34,861
Total Households Renter Households
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 0
Table 32 2015 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, HearthSide Lafayette
2.
Affordability Analysis
The analysis looks at the affordability of the proposed 125 units at the subject property (Table 33).
The steps in the affordability analysis are as follows:
As an example, we walk through the steps to test affordability for the 50 percent AMI one-
bedroom units at HearthSide Lafayette. The overall shelter cost for a 50 percent AMI one-
bedroom unit would be $616 ($445 net rent plus a $171 allowance to cover all utility costs
except trash removal).
By applying a 40 percent rent burden to this gross rent, we determined that a one-bedroom
unit at 50 percent AMI would be affordable to households earning at least $18,480 per year.
A projected 11,562 households (62+) in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area will earn at
least this amount in 2018.
The maximum income limit for a one-bedroom unit at 50 percent AMI is $27,300 based on an
average household size of two people. According to the interpolated income distribution for
2018, 10,361 households (62+) in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area will have incomes
above this maximum income.
Subtracting the 10,361 households (62+) with incomes above the maximum income limit from
the 11,562 households (62+) that could afford to rent this unit, RPRG computes that an
estimated 1,201 households (62+) in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area will be within the
target income segment for the one bedroom units at 50 percent AMI. The capture rate for
the 10 one-bedroom units at 50 percent AMI is 0.8 percent for all households (62+).
HUD 2015 Median Household Income
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA HUD Metro FMR Area $68,300
Very Low Income for 4 Person Household $34,100
2015 Computed Area Median Gross Income $68,200
Utility Allowance:
1 Bedroom $171
2 Bedroom $217
LIHTC Household Income Limits by Household Size:
Household Size 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 150%
1 Person $14,340 $19,120 $23,900 $28,680 $38,240 $47,800 $71,700
2 Persons $16,380 $21,840 $27,300 $32,760 $43,680 $54,600 $81,900
3 Persons $18,420 $24,560 $30,700 $36,840 $49,120 $61,400 $92,100
4 Persons $20,460 $27,280 $34,100 $40,920 $54,560 $68,200 $102,300
5 Persons $22,110 $29,480 $36,850 $44,220 $58,960 $73,700 $110,550
6 Persons $23,760 $31,680 $39,600 $47,520 $63,360 $79,200 $118,800
7 Persons
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
8 Persons
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Imputed Income Limits by Number of Bedrooms:
Persons Bedrooms
30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 150%
1 0 $14,340 $19,120 $23,900 $28,680 $38,240 $47,800 $71,700
2 1 $16,380 $21,840 $27,300 $32,760 $43,680 $54,600 $81,900
2 2 $16,380 $21,840 $27,300 $32,760 $43,680 $54,600 $81,900
LIHTC Tenant Rent Limits by Number of Bedrooms:
Assumes 1.5 Persons per bedroom
30% 40% 50% 60% 80%
Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net
1 Bedroom $384 $213 $512 $341 $640 $469 $768 $597 $1,024 $853
2 Bedroom $460 $243 $614 $397 $767 $550 $921 $704 $1,228 $1,011
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
# Persons
Assumes max 2.0 person
hhlds
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 1
We then determined that 275 renter households (62+) with incomes between the minimum
income required and maximum income allowed will reside in the market in 2018. The subject
property will need to capture 3.6 percent of these renter households to lease up the 10 units
in this floor plan.
Capture rates are also calculated for all other floor plans and for the project overall. The
remaining renter capture rates by floor plan range from 4.4 percent to 15.3 percent. By AMI
level, renter capture rates are 9.1 percent for the 50 percent AMI units, 14.3 percent for the
60 percent AMI units, 16.4 percent for all LIHTC units, 11.0 percent for the market rate units,
and 13.7 percent for the project overall.
Table 33 2018 HearthSide Lafayette Affordability Analysis
50% Units One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units
Min. Max. Min. Max.
Number of Units 10 15
Net Rent $445 $525
Gross Rent $616 $742
% Income for Shelter 40% 40%
Income Range (Min, Max) $18,480 $27,300 $22,260 $27,300
Total Households
Range of Qual ified Hhlds 11,562 10,361 11,086 10,361
1,201 725
Total HH Capture Rate 0.8% 2.1%
Renter Households
Range of Qual ified Hhlds 1,472 1,197 1,357 1,197
275 160
Renter HH Capture Rate 3.6% 9.3%
60% Units One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units
Number of Units 20 30
Net Rent $565 $680
Gross Rent $736 $897
% Income for Shelter 40% 40%
Income Range (Min, Max) $22,080 $32,760 $26,910 $32,760
Total Households
Range of Qual ified Hhlds 11,109 9,459 10,426 9,459
# Qualified Households 1,650 967
Unit Total HH Capture Rate 1.2% 3.1%
Renter Households
Range of Qual ified Hhlds 1,363 1,013 1,210 1,013
350 197
Renter HH Capture Rate 5.7% 15.3%
Market Rate One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units
Number of Units 20 30
Net Rent $1,100 $1,300
Gross Rent $1,271 $1,517
% Income for Shelter 40% 40%
Income Range (Min, Max) $38,130 $65,520 $45,510 $65,520
Total Households
Range of Qual ified Hhlds 8,642 5,566 7,590 5,566
# Qualified Households 3,076 2,024
Total HH Capture Rate 0.7% 1.5%
Renter Households
Range of Qual ified Hhlds 872 419 718 419
453 299
Renter HH Capture Rate 4.4% 10.0%
# Qualified Households
# Qualified Hhlds
# Qualified Hhlds
# Qualified Renter
All Households = 13,277
Renter Households = 1,885
# Qualified
HHs
Band of Qualified
Hhlds
# Qualified
HHs
Capture
Rate
Income $18,480 $18,480
50% Units 25 Households 11,562 1,201 1,472 275
9.1%
Income $22,080 $22,080
60% Units 50 Households 11,109 1,650 1,363 350
14.3%
Income $18,480 $18,480
LIHTC Units 75 Households 11,562 2,103 1,472 459
16.4%
Income $38,130 $38,130
Market Rate 50 Households 8,642 3,076 872 453
11.0%
Income $18,480 $18,480
Total Units 125 Households 11,562 5,180 1,472 912
13.7%
Source: 2010 U.S. Census,Esri, Estimates, RPRG, Inc.
Income
Target
# Units
$32,760
$32,760
9,459
3.0%
1,013
Capture
Rate
$27,300
$27,300
10,361
2.1%
1,197
Band of Qualified Hhlds
$32,760
$32,760
9,459
3.6%
1,013
$65,520
$65,520
$65,520
$65,520
5,566
1.6%
419
5,566
2.4%
419
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 2
3.
Conclusions on Affordability
Given the subject property will be the only affordable senior rental community in the market area, all
affordability capture rates are within reasonable and achievable levels.
C. Demand Estimates and Capture Rates
1.
Methodology
DCA’s demand methodology for elderly communities (62+) consists of four components:
The first component of demand is household growth. This number is the number of income-
qualified senior renter households (62+) anticipated to move into the market area between
the base year (2014) and 2017.
The second component is income qualified renter households living in substandard housing.
“Substandard” is defined as having more than 1.01 persons per room and/or lacking complete
plumbing facilities. According to U.S. Census ACS data, the percentage of renter occupied
households in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area that are “substandard” is 4.3 percent
(Table 34).
The third component of demand is cost burdened renters, which is defined as those renter
households paying more than 40 percent of household income for housing costs. According
to 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS) data, 45.0 percent of the HearthSide
Lafayette Market Area’s senior renter households (65+) are categorized as cost burdened
(Table 34). This cost burdened percentage is applied to the current senior household base
(62+).
The final component of demand (only applicable to senior-oriented rental communities) is
from homeowners converting to rental housing. There is a lack of detailed local or regional
information regarding the movership of elderly homeowners to rental housing. According to
the American Housing Survey conducted for the U.S. Census Bureau in 2011, 3.0 percent of
elderly households move each year in the Atlanta MSA. Of those moving within the past
twelve months, 31.8 percent moved from owned to rental housing (Table 35); thus, 1.0
percent of total senior households convert from owned to rental housing each year. Given
the lack of local information, this source is considered the most current and accurate.
The data assumptions used in the calculation of these demand estimates are detailed at the bottom
of Table 36. Income qualification percentages are derived by using the Affordability Analysis detailed
in Table 33, but are adjusted to remove overlap among bedroom sizes within the same AMI level.
The first three components of DCA demand are augmented by 10 percent to account for secondary
market demand. While no longer specifically part of DCA’s demand methodology, this component of
demand is relevant for senior-oriented communities that often attract a significant proportion of
tenants from well beyond primary market area boundaries.
2.
Demand Analysis
According to DCA’s demand methodology, all units built or approved between the base year (2014)
and 2017 are to be subtracted from the demand estimates to arrive at a net demand. No such
communities were identified in the market area.
HearthSide Lafayette's capture rates by AMI level are 15.6 percent for the 50 percent AMI units, 24.5
percent for the 60 percent AMI units, 28.0 percent for all LIHTC units, 18.9 percent for the market rate
units, and 23.5 percent for the project overall. By floor plan, capture rates range from 12.5 percent
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 3
to 26.6 percent (Table 37). All of these capture rates are within DCA’s mandated threshold and are
reasonable for an age restricted rental community.
Table 34 Substandard and Cost Burdened Calculations
Table 35 Senior Homeowner Conversion, Atlanta MSA
Rent Cost Burden Substandardness
Total Households
#
%
Total Households
Less than 10.0 percent 222 1.8% Owner occupied:
10.0 to 14.9 percent 797 6.5% Complete plumbing facilities: 32,725
15.0 to 19.9 percent 1,015 8.3% 1.00 or less occupants per room 32,263
20.0 to 24.9 percent 1,156 9.5%
1.01 or more occupants per room
462
25.0 to 29.9 percent 1,270 10.4%
Lacking complete plumbing facilities:
39
30.0 to 34.9 percent 913 7.5% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 501
35.0 to 39.9 percent 925 7.6%
40.0 to 49.9 percent 1,144 9.4% Renter occupied:
50.0 percent or more 3,845 31.6% Complete plumbing facilities: 12,146
Not computed 891 7.3% 1.00 or less occupants per room 11,657
Total 12,178 100%
1.01 or more occupants per room
489
Lacking complete plumbing facilities:
32
> 35% income on rent 5,914 52.4% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 521
Households 65+
#
%
Substandard Housing
1,022
Less than 20.0 percent 82 9.0% % Total Stock Substandard 2.3%
20.0 to 24.9 percent 108 11.9% % Rental Stock Substandard 4.3%
25.0 to 29.9 percent 79 8.7%
30.0 to 34.9 percent 118 13.0%
35.0 percent or more 442 48.7%
Not computed 79 8.7%
Total 908 100%
> 35% income on rent 442 53.3%
> 40% income on rent 45.0%
Source: American Community Survey 2010-2014
Tenure of Previous Residence - Renter Occupied Units Atlanta MSA
Senior Households 65+ # %
Total Households 293,600
Total Households Moving within the Past Year 8,800 3.0%
Total Moved from Home, Apt., Mfg./Mobile Home 8,500 96.6%
Moved from Owner Occupied Housing 2,700 31.8%
Moved from Renter Occupied Housing 5,800 68.2%
Total Moved from Other Housing or Not Reported 300 3.4%
% of Senior Households Moving Within the Past Year 3.0%
% of Senior Movers Converting from Homeowners to Renters 31.8%
% of Senior Households Converting from Homeowners to Renters 1.0%
Source: American Housing Survey, 2011
Homeownership to Rental Housing Conversion
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 4
Table 36 DCA Demand by Income Level
Table 37 DCA Demand by Floor Plan (No Overlap) and Capture Rate Analysis Chart
Income Target
50% Units
60% Units
LIHTC Units
Market Rate
Total Units
Minimum Income Limit
$18,480
$22,080
$18,480
$38,130
$18,480
Maximum Income Limit
$27,300
$32,760
$32,760
$65,520
$65,520
(A) Renter Income Qualification Percentage
14.6%
18.5%
24.3%
24.1%
48.4%
Demand from New Renter Households
Calculation (C-B) *F*A
28 36 47 46 93
PLUS
Demand from Existing Renter HHs (Substandard)
Calculation B*D*F*A
10 13 17 16 33
PLUS
Demand from Existing Renter HHs (Overburdened)
Calculation B*E*F*A
105 133 175 173 348
PLUS
Secondary Market Demand Adjustment (10%)*
14
18
24
24
47
SUBTOTAL
157
200
262
259
522
PLUS
Demand Elderly Homeowner Conversion* (Max. 2%)
3
4
5
5
10
TOTAL DEMAND
160
204
268
265
532
LESS
Comparable Units Built or Planned Since 2014
0
0
0
0
0
Net Demand
160
204
268
265
532
Proposed Units
25
50
75
50
125
Capture Rate
15.6%
24.5%
28.0%
18.9%
23.5%
* Limited to 15% of Total Demand
Demand Calculation Inputs
A). % of Renter Hhlds with Qualifying Income
see above
B). 2014 Householders 62+
11,515
C). 2017 Householders 62+
12,902
D). Substandard Housing (% of Rental Stock)
4.3%
E). Rent Overburdened (% Senior Households)
45.0%
F). Renter Percentage (Senior Households)
13.9%
G). Elderly Homeowner Turnover
1.0%
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
50% Units $18,480 - $27,300
One Bedroom Units $18,480 - $23,000 10 7.3% 80 0 80 12.5%
Two Bedroom Units $23,001 - $27,300 15 7.3% 80 0 80 18.6%
60% Units $22,080 - $32,760
One Bedroom Units $22,080 - $27,000 20 8.3% 91 0 91 22.0%
Two Bedroom Units $27,001 - $32,760 30 10.3% 113 0 113 26.6%
Market Rate $38,130 - $65,520
One Bedroom Units $38,130 - $50,000 20 13.2% 145 0 145 13.8%
Two Bedroom Units $50,001 - $65,520 30 10.9% 120 0 120 25.1%
Project Total $18,480 - $65,520
50% Units $18,480 - $27,300 25 14.6% 160 0 160 15.6%
60% Units $22,080 - $32,760 50 18.5% 204 0 204 24.5%
LIHTC Units $18,480 - $32,760 75 24.3% 268 0 268 28.0%
Market Rate $38,130 - $65,520 50 24.1% 265 0 265 18.9%
Total Units $18,480 - $65,520 125 48.4% 532 0 532 23.5%
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 5
D.Product Evaluation
Considered in the context of the competitive environment, the relative position of HearthSide
Lafayette is as follows:
Site:
The subject site is acceptable for a rental housing development targeting low to
moderate income senior households. Surrounding land uses are compatible with multi-family
development and are appropriate for senior-oriented housing. The subject site is convenient
to major thoroughfares and community amenities including healthcare facilities, retail
centers, and recreational facilities.
Unit Distribution:
The proposed unit mix for HearthSide Lafayette includes 50 one-bedroom
units (40 percent) and 75 two-bedroom units (60 percent). This unit distribution is
comparable to the average of the two surveyed senior rental communities outside the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. As such, the proposed unit distribution appears
appropriate for the target market.
Unit Size:
The proposed unit sizes at HearthSide Lafayette are 752 square feet for one
bedroom units and 1,015 square feet for two bedroom units. Both of these proposed unit
sizes are larger than market averages among the two senior communities surveyed outside
the market area and are comparable to the unit sizes at HearthSide Peachtree City, the newest
senior LIHTC community surveyed. The proposed unit sizes will be competitive in the
HearthSide Lafayette Market Area.
Unit Features:
In-unit features offered at the subject property will include
a range,
refrigerator, dishwasher, garbage disposal, microwave, washer/dryer connections, ceiling
fans, and nine foot ceilings. These unit features are comparable to those offered at
HearthSide Peachtree City and will be superior to unit features offered at the older Valley Hill.
The proposed unit features will also be comparable to or superior to those offered at the
existing general occupancy communities in the market area.
Community Amenities
: HearthSide Lafayette’ community amenity package will include a
community room, fitness center, business/computer center, covered pavilion with tables and
chairs, fenced community garden, arts and crafts room, media/theater room, library, beauty
salon, community laundry area, and covered entrance. This amenity package, geared toward
seniors, will be competitive with amenities offered at the newest senior LIHTC surveyed
(HearthSide Peachtree City) and superior to those found at Valley Hill. The proposed
community amenities will appeal to senior households more than the family-oriented
community amenities typically found at general occupancy properties.
Marketability:
The subject property will offer an attractive product that is suitable for the
target market.
E. Price Position
As shown in Figure 8, the proposed LIHTC rents will be the lowest rents in the market area and lower
than rents at comparable AMI levels at the two senior communities surveyed outside the market area.
The proposed market rate rents will be higher than all rents in the market area; however, they will be
comparable to the market rate rents at HearthSide Peachtree City. Although outside the market area,
HearthSide Peachtree City is the most comparable community to the subject property. As HearthSide
Peachtree City is fully occupied with a waiting list of roughly 250 people, the proposed market rate
rents appear to be reasonable. With acceptable unit sizes, all proposed rents at the subject property
will be competitive in the market.
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 6
Figure 8 Price Position – One and Two Bedroom Units
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 7
F. Absorption Estimate
One comparable senior LIHTC rental community just outside the market area, HearthSide Peachtree
City, opened in February 2014 and leased all 96 units by October 2014, an average monthly absorption
of 12 units. In addition to the experiences of recently constructed rental communities, the subject
property’s projected absorption rate is based on projected senior household growth, age and income-
qualified renter households in the market area, demand estimates, rental market conditions, and the
marketability of the proposed site/product.
The HearthSide Lafayette Market Area is expected to add 369 senior households (62+) per
year from 2016 to 2018, 2.9 percent annual growth.
Over 900 renter households (62+) will be income-qualified for one or more units proposed at
HearthSide Lafayette by 2018. As the subject property will be the only affordable senior rental
community in the market area, all affordability capture rates are acceptable. All DCA demand
capture rates are also within acceptable thresholds.
Both surveyed senior LIHTC rental communities just outside the market area were fully
occupied and HearthSide Peachtree City, the newest community surveyed, had a waiting list
of roughly 250 people. The general occupancy rental housing stock was performing well with
an overall vacancy rate of 3.1 percent.
Upon completion, HearthSide Lafayette will offer an attractive product that will be among the
most attractive rental communities in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area. Outside of the
general occupancy community under construction adjacent to the site, the newest rental
community in the market area was built in 2005.
Based on the product to be constructed and the factors discussed above, we expect HearthSide
Lafayette to lease-up at a rate of at least 12 units per month comparable to HearthSide Peachtree
City. At this rate, the subject property will reach a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent within
nine to ten months.
G.Impact on Existing Market
Given no affordable senior rental communities exist in the market area and a strong general
occupancy rental market, projected senior household growth over the next two years, and reasonable
affordability/demand estimates, we do not expect HearthSide Lafayette to have negative impact on
existing rental communities in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area including those with tax credits.
H.Final Conclusions and Recommendations
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
Absorption
Average
Market Rent
Market Rents
Band
Proposed
Rents
50% Units $18,480 - $27,300
One Bedroom Units $18,480 - $23,000 10 7.3% 80 0 80 12.5% 3-4 months $744 $590-$891 $445
Two Bedroom Units $23,001 - $27,300 15 7.3% 80 0 80 18.6% 5-6 months $850 $685-$1,052 $525
60% Units $22,080 - $32,760
One Bedroom Units $22,080 - $27,000 20 8.3% 91 0 91 22.0% 7-8 months $744 $590-$891 $565
Two Bedroom Units $27,001 - $32,760 30 10.3% 113 0 113 26.6% 9-10 months $850 $685-$1,052 $680
Market Rate $38,130 - $65,520
One Bedroom Units $38,130 - $50,000 20 13.2% 145 0 145 13.8% 6-7 months $744 $590-$891 $1,100
Two Bedroom Units $50,001 - $65,520 30 10.9% 120 0 120 25.1% 8-9 months $850 $685-$1,052 $1,300
Project Total $18,480 - $65,520
50% Units $18,480 - $27,300 25 14.6% 160 0 160 15.6% 5-6 months
60% Units $22,080 - $32,760 50 18.5% 204 0 204 24.5% 9-10 months
LIHTC Units $18,480 - $32,760 75 24.3% 268 0 268 28.0% 9-10 months
Market Rate $38,130 - $65,520 50 24.1% 265 0 265 18.9% 8-9 months
Total Units $18,480 - $65,520 125 48.4% 532 0 532 23.5% 9-10 months
HearthSide Lafayette | Findings and Conclusions
Page 5 8
Strong senior rental market conditions just outside the market area and reasonable affordability and
demand estimates indicate sufficient demand will exist in the HearthSide Lafayette Market Area by
2018 to support the proposed 125 units at HearthSide Lafayette. As such, RPRG believes HearthSide
Lafayette will be able to reach and maintain a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent following its
entrance into the rental market. The subject property will benefit from being the only affordable
senior rental community in the market area and the subject will be well received by the target market.
We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.
_______________________ _______________________
Brett Welborn Tad Scepaniak
Analyst Principal
HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
Page 5 9
APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS
In conducting the analysis, we will make the following assumptions, except as otherwise noted in our
report:
1. There are no zoning, building, safety, environmental or other federal, state or local laws,
regulations or codes which would prohibit or impair the development, marketing or operation of the
subject project in the manner contemplated in our report, and the subject project will be developed,
marketed and operated in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and codes.
2. No material changes will occur in (a) any federal, state or local law, regulation or code (including,
without limitation, the Internal Revenue Code) affecting the subject project, or (b) any federal, state
or local grant, financing or other program which is to be utilized in connection with the subject project.
3. The local, national and international economies will not deteriorate, and there will be no
significant changes in interest rates or in rates of inflation or deflation.
4. The subject project will be served by adequate transportation, utilities and governmental
facilities.
5. The subject project will not be subjected to any war, energy crisis, embargo, strike, earthquake,
flood, fire or other casualty or act of God.
6. The subject project will be on the market at the time and with the product anticipated in our
report, and at the price position specified in our report.
7. The subject project will be developed, marketed and operated in a highly professional manner.
8. No projects will be developed which will be in competition with the subject project, except as set
forth in our report.
9. There are no existing judgments nor any pending or threatened litigation, which could hinder the
development, marketing or operation of the subject project.
HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
Page 6 0
The analysis will be subject to the following limiting conditions, except as otherwise noted in our
report:
1. The analysis contained in this report necessarily incorporates numerous estimates and
assumptions with respect to property performance, general and local business and economic
conditions, the absence of material changes in the competitive environment and other matters. Some
estimates or assumptions, however, inevitably will not materialize, and unanticipated events and
circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved during the period covered by our analysis
will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material.
2. Our absorption estimates are based on the assumption that the product recommendations set
forth in our report will be followed without material deviation.
3. All estimates of future dollar amounts are based on the current value of the dollar, without any
allowance for inflation or deflation.
4. We have no responsibility for considerations requiring expertise in other fields. Such
considerations include, but are not limited to, legal matters, environmental matters, architectural
matters, geologic considerations, such as soils and seismic stability, and civil, mechanical, electrical,
structural and other engineering matters.
5. Information, estimates and opinions contained in or referred to in our report, which we have
obtained from sources outside of this office, are assumed to be reliable and have not been
independently verified.
6. The conclusions and recommendations in our report are subject to these Underlying Assumptions
and Limiting Conditions and to any additional assumptions or conditions set forth in the body of our
report.
HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 2 ANALYST Certifications/Representations
Page 6 1
APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS/REPRESENTATIONS
I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief:
The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct.
The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported
assumptions and limiting conditions, and is my personal, unbiased professional analyses,
opinions, and conclusions.
I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this report,
and I have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved.
My compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analysis,
opinions, or conclusions in, or the use of, this report.
The market study was not based on tax credit approval or approval of a loan. My
compensation is not contingent upon the reporting of a predetermined demand that
favors the cause of the client, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of
a subsequent event.
My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report has been
prepared, in conformity with the requirements of the Code of Professional Ethics and the
Standards of Professional Practice as set forth in the Uniform Standards of Professional
Appraisal Practice (USPAP) as adopted by the Appraisal Standards Board of the Appraisal
Foundation.
I affirm that I have made a physical inspection of the market area and the subject property
and that Information has been used in the full study of the need and demand for the
proposed units. The report was written according to DCA’s market study requirements,
the information in the report is accurate, and the report can be relied upon by DCA as a
true assessment of the low-income housing rental market.
To the best of my knowledge, the market can support the proposed project as shown in
the study. I understand that any misrepresentation of this statement may result in the
denial of further participation in DCA’s rental housing programs. I also affirm that I have
no interest in the project or relationship with the ownership entity, and my compensation
is not contingent on this project being funded.
DCA may rely on the representation made in the market study provided and this
document is assignable to other lenders that are parties to the DCA loan transaction.
__________________
Brett Welborn
Analyst
Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Warning: Title 18 U.S.C. 1001, provides in part that whoever knowingly and willfully makes or uses a document containing
any false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry, in any manner in the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the
United States, shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned for not more than five years or both.
HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 2 ANALYST Certifications/Representations
Page 6 2
I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief:
The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct.
The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported
assumptions and limiting conditions, and is my personal, unbiased professional analyses,
opinions, and conclusions.
I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this report,
and I have no personal interest or bias with respect to the parties involved.
My compensation is not contingent on an action or event resulting from the analysis,
opinions, or conclusions in, or the use of, this report.
The market study was not based on tax credit approval or approval of a loan. My
compensation is not contingent upon the reporting of a predetermined demand that
favors the cause of the client, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of
a subsequent event.
My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report has been
prepared, in conformity with the requirements of the Code of Professional Ethics and the
Standards of Professional Practice as set forth in the Uniform Standards of Professional
Appraisal Practice (USPAP) as adopted by the Appraisal Standards Board of the Appraisal
Foundation.
The report was written according to DCA’s market study requirements, the information
in the report is accurate, and the report can be relied upon by DCA as a true assessment
of the low-income housing rental market.
To the best of my knowledge, the market can support the proposed project as shown in
the study. I understand that any misrepresentation of this statement may result in the
denial of further participation in DCA’s rental housing programs. I also affirm that I have
no interest in the project or relationship with the ownership entity, and my compensation
is not contingent on this project being funded.
DCA may rely on the representation made in the market study provided and this
document is assignable to other lenders that are parties to the DCA loan transaction.
__________________
Tad Scepaniak
Principal
Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Warning: Title 18 U.S.C. 1001, provides in part that whoever knowingly and willfully makes or uses a document containing
any false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry, in any manner in the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the
United States, shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned for not more than five years or both.
HearthSide Lafayette | Apendix 3 NCHMA Certification
Page 6 3
APENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION
This market study has been prepared by Real Property Research Group, Inc., a member in good standing
of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). This study has been prepared in
conformance with the standards adopted by NCHMA for the market analysts’ industry. These standards
include the Standard Definitions of Key Terms Used in Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects and
Model Content Standards for the Content of Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects. These
Standards are designed to enhance the quality of market studies and to make them easier to prepare,
understand, and use by market analysts and by the end users. These Standards are voluntary only, and no
legal responsibility regarding their use is assumed by the National Council of Housing Market Analysts.
Real Property Research Group, Inc. is duly qualified and experienced in providing market analysis for
Affordable Housing. The company’s principals participate in NCHMA educational and information sharing
programs to maintain the highest professional standards and state-of-the-art knowledge. Real Property
Research Group, Inc. is an independent market analyst. No principal or employee of Real Property
Research Group, Inc. has any financial interest whatsoever in the development for which this analysis has
been undertaken.
While the document specifies Real Property Research Group, Inc., the certification is always signed by the
individual completing the study and attesting to the certification.
Real Property Research Group, Inc.
________Tad Scepaniak___________
Name
__________Principal_____________
Title
_______May 17, 2016_________
Date
HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 4 ANALYST Resumes
Page 6 4
APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES
ROBERT M. LEFENFELD
Mr. Lefenfeld is the Managing Principal of the firm with over 30 years of experience in the field of
residential market research. Before founding Real Property Research Group in February, 2001, Bob
served as an officer of research subsidiaries of Reznick Fedder & Silverman and Legg Mason. Between
1998 and 2001, Bob was Managing Director of RF&S Realty Advisors, conducting residential market
studies throughout the United States. From 1987 to 1995, Bob served as Senior Vice President of Legg
Mason Realty Group, managing the firm’s consulting practice and serving as publisher of a Mid-
Atlantic residential data service, Housing Market Profiles. Prior to joining Legg Mason, Bob spent ten
years with the Baltimore Metropolitan Council as a housing economist. Bob also served as Research
Director for Regency Homes between 1995 and 1998, analyzing markets throughout the Eastern
United States and evaluating the company’s active building operation.
Bob oversees the execution and completion of all of the firm’s research assignments, ranging from a
strategic assessment of new development and building opportunities throughout a region to the
development and refinement of a particular product on a specific site. He combines extensive
experience in the real estate industry with capabilities in database development and information
management. Over the years, he has developed a series of information products and proprietary
databases serving real estate professionals.
Bob has lectured and written extensively on the subject of residential real estate market analysis. Bob
serves as an adjunct professor for the Graduate Programs in Real Estate Development, School of
Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland College Park. He has served as
National Chair of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and currently serves as
Chair of the Organization’s FHA Committee. Bob is also a member of the Baltimore chapter of Lambda
Alpha Land Economics Society.
Areas of Concentration:
Strategic Assessments
:
Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted numerous corridor analyses throughout the
United States to assist building and real estate companies in evaluating development
opportunities. Such analyses document demographic, economic, competitive, and proposed
development activity by submarket and discuss opportunities for development.
Feasibility Analysis
:
Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted feasibility studies for various types of residential
developments for builders and developers. Subjects for these analyses have included for-sale
single-family and townhouse developments, age-restricted rental and for-sale developments,
large multi-product PUDs, urban renovations and continuing care facilities for the elderly.
Information Products: Bob has developed a series of proprietary databases to assist clients in
monitoring growth trends. Subjects of these databases have included for sale housing, pipeline
information, and rental communities.
Education:
Master of Urban and Regional Planning; The George Washington University.
Bachelor of Arts - Political Science; Northeastern University.
HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 4 ANALYST Resumes
Page 6 5
TAD SCEPANIAK
Tad Scepaniak directs the Atlanta office of Real Property Research Group and leads the firm’s
affordable housing practice. Tad directs the firm’s efforts in the southeast and south central United
States and has worked extensively in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee,
Iowa, and Michigan. He specializes in the preparation of market feasibility studies for rental housing
communities, including market-rate apartments developed under the HUD 221(d)(4) program and
affordable housing built under the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program. Along with work for
developer clients, Tad is the key contact for research contracts with the North Carolina, South
Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Iowa Housing Finance agencies. Tad is also responsible for
development and implementation of many of the firm’s automated systems.
Tad is Vice Chair of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and previously served
as the Co-Chair of Standards Committee. He has taken a lead role in the development of the
organization's Standard Definitions and Recommended Market Study Content, and he has authored
and co-authored white papers on market areas, derivation of market rents, and selection of
comparable properties. Tad is also a founding member of the Atlanta chapter of the Lambda Alpha
Land Economics Society.
Areas of Concentration:
Low Income Tax Credit Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has worked extensively with the Low
Income Tax Credit program throughout the United States, with special emphasis on the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.
Senior Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted feasibility analysis for a variety of senior
oriented rental housing. The majority of this work has been under the Low Income Tax Credit
program; however his experience includes assisted living facilities and market rate senior
rental communities.
Market Rate Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted various projects for developers of
market rate rental housing. The studies produced for these developers are generally used to
determine the rental housing needs of a specific submarket and to obtain financing.
Public Housing Authority Consultation: Tad has worked with Housing Authorities throughout
the United States to document trends rental and for sale housing market trends to better
understand redevelopment opportunities. He has completed studies examining development
opportunities for housing authorities through the Choice Neighborhood Initiative or other
programs in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee.
Education:
Bachelor of Science – Marketing; Berry College – Rome, Georgia
HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 4 ANALYST Resumes
Page 6 6
BRETT WELBORN
Analyst
Brett Welborn entered the field of Real Estate Market Research in 2008, joining Real Property
Research Group’s (RPRG) Atlanta office as a Research Associate upon college graduation. During
Brett’s time as a Research Associate, he gathered economic, demographic, and competitive data for
market feasibility analyses and other consulting projects completed by the firm. Through his
experience, Brett has progressed to serve as Analyst for RPRG.
Areas of Concentration:
Low Income Housing Tax Credit Rental Housing: Brett has worked with the Low Income Housing Tax
Credit program, evaluating general occupancy and senior oriented developments for State allocating
agencies, lenders, and developers. His work with the LIHTC program has spanned a range of project
types, including newly constructed communities and rehabilitations.
In addition to market analysis responsibilities, Brett has also assisted in the development of research
tools for the organization.
Education:
Bachelor of Business Administration – Real Estate; University of Georgia, Athens, GA
HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist
Page 6 7
APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST
I understand that by initializing (or checking) the following items, I am stating that those items are included
and/or addressed in the report. If an item is not checked, a full explanation is included in the report. A
listing of page number(s) is equivalent to check or initializing.
The report was written according to DCA's market study requirements, that the information included is
accurate and that the report can be relied upon by DCA as a true assessment of the low-income housing
rental market.
I also certify that I have inspected the subject property as well as all rent comparables.
Signed: Date: May 17, 2016
Brett Welborn
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HearthSide Lafayette | Appendix 6 NCHMA Checklist
Page 7 2
APPENDIX 6 NCHMA CHECKLIST
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HearthSide Lafayette | | Appendix 7 Rental Community Profiles
Page 7 5
APPENDIX 7 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES
Community Address City Phone Number Date Surveyed Contact
Brandywine at Lafayette 160 Belle Dr. Fayetteville 770-460-1989 5/18/2016 Property Manager
Brooks Crossing 8050 Taylors Rd. Riverdale 770-473-7323 5/18/2016 Property Manager
Chase Ridge 100 Chase Ridge Dr. Riverdale 770-471-3664 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Clarendon Place 201 Clarendeon Pl. Fayetteville 770-461-0816 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Cobblestone 2400 Cobblestone Blvd. Fayetteville 770-719-9477 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Flint River Crossing 240 Flint River Rd. Jonesboro 770-471-6395 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Hearthside Peachtree City 1000 Newgate Dr. Peachtree City 770-486-8866 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Hidden Pines at Tara 790 Dixon Rd. Jonesboro 770-478-1202 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Lakeside Villas 1992 Lovejoy Rd. Hampton 770-744-0831 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Pinebrooke 9170 Dorsey Rd. Riverdale 770-210-0800 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Canterbury TH's 772 Point South Pkwy. Jonesboro 770-478-8686 5/18/2016 Property Manager
Shadow Ridge 950 Lake Ridge Pkwy. Riverdale 770-997-1972 5/18/2016 Property Manager
Sutter Lake 8104 Webb Rd. Jonesboro 770-478-9463 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Swanbrook Manor 755 Lanier Ave. E Fayetteville 770-460-0879 5/19/2016 Property Manager
The Reserve at Garden Lake 1000 Lake Ridge Pkwy. Riverdale 770-907-7000 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Valley Hill 430 Valley Hill Rd. SW Riverdale 770-783-3712 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Villas at Hampton 12227 Tara Blvd. Hampton 678-479-6585 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Villas by the Lake 8720 Hwy. 85 Jonesboro 770-477-1718 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Vineyard Pointe 8213 Hwy. 85 Riverdale 770-478-5908 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Walden Landing 11015 Tara Blvd. Hampton 770-471-4411 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Weatherly Walk 100 Knight Way Fayetteville 770-460-1491 5/19/2016 Property Manager
Wynthrope Forest 8082 Webb Rd. Riverdale 770-210-9960 5/19/2016 Property Manager
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