Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018

The Republic of the Union of Myanmar

2019

Myanmar Climate Change Strategy

(2018 – 2030)

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Acknowledgements

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MONREC)

acknowledges the important contribution made by all members of the Programme

Steering Committee of the Myanmar Climate Change Alliance (MCCA) for their guidance

and all members of the MCCA's Technical Working Group (TWG) for their contribution in

formulating this strategy. The TWG comprises representatives from all key ministries and

departments; Yangon, Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw city development committees;

academic institutions; the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and

Industry (UMFCCI); Civil Society Organisations, including the Myanmar Environment

Rehabilitation Network (MERN), and the Platform of CSOs working on Environment and

Climate Change; Myanmar Engineering Society; and Development Partners, the United

Nations Development Programme(UNDP), Disaster Risk Reduction Working Group,

Environment Sector Working Group, UN-REDD+, WWF-Myanmar. These members

provided valuable insights, ideas and strategic orientation to produce an actionable

strategy.

MONREC is sincerely grateful to the European Union for the generous support

received through funding the MCCA programme, implemented by the United Nations

Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) and the United Nations Environment

Programme (UN Environment). MCCA has worked as an efficient platform for convening

national and sub-national stakeholders for the strategy formulation process from April

2015 to June 2016, and to mobilize expertise to draft the Strategy. MONREC also wishes

to thank the experts of the International Institute for Environment and Development

(IIED), the experts who formulated the capacity development need assessments in

connection to the Strategy and MERN for facilitating the local consultations.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MONREC) also

acknowledges the important contribution made by all stakeholders, including the TWG,

PSC, the UMFCCI; civil society organisations, including MERN, and development partners,

WWF-Myanmar, consulted for the formulation of the Myanmar Climate Change Policy

(MCCP). In particular MONREC would like to thank the Environment Ministers and high

level representatives of the Environmental Conservation Department for their valuable

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

contributions and for travelling from different states and regions to attend the national

consultation workshops; and the experts of the International Institute for Environment

and Development (IIED) drafting team for their tireless efforts in formulating the

Myanmar Climate Change Policy that provides long-term direction and guidance for

government, civil society, and the private sector to undertake and promote climate

change actions in adaptation and mitigation in Myanmar and to create opportunities for

sustainable and low-carbon development.

On behalf of the Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, MONREC

extends its gratitude to all citizens of Myanmar who participated in meetings at local,

sub-national and national levels in more than 20 townships in five states and regions,

and those who provided comments through the MCCA website and by other means

through out the formulation process of the Myanmar Climate Change Strategy and

Master Plan (MCCS and MCCMP) 2018-2030 and the Myanmar Climate Change Policy

(MCCP).

Table of contents

Acknowledgements 1

Table of contents 3

Glossary 7

Acronyms 9

Forewords 12

Executive summary 20

Part I: Development in the context of climate change 27

1. National circumstances 27

1.1 Climate 28

1.2 Demography 29

1.3 Economic development 31

1.4 Social development 34

1.5 Environmental development 34

1.6 Governance systems 35

2. Myanmar's development vision 37

2.1 Economic development 37

2.2 Social development 38

2.3 Environmental development 39

2.4 Climate change 41

3. Implications of climate change on development 48

3.1 Agriculture, fisheries and livestock 53

3.2 Environment and natural resources 58

3.3 Energy, transport and industry 64

3.4 Cities, towns and human settlements 73

3.5 Climate hazards and health 79

3.6 Education, science and technology 85

4. Readiness and capabilities for addressing climate change 90

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Table of contents

Acknowledgements 1

Table of contents 3

Glossary 7

Acronyms 9

Forewords 12

Executive summary 20

Part I: Development in the context of climate change 27

1. National circumstances 27

1.1 Climate 28

1.2 Demography 29

1.3 Economic development 31

1.4 Social development 34

1.5 Environmental development 34

1.6 Governance systems 35

2. Myanmar's development vision 37

2.1 Economic development 37

2.2 Social development 38

2.3 Environmental development 39

2.4 Climate change 41

3. Implications of climate change on development 48

3.1 Agriculture, fisheries and livestock 53

3.2 Environment and natural resources 58

3.3 Energy, transport and industry 64

3.4 Cities, towns and human settlements 73

3.5 Climate hazards and health 79

3.6 Education, science and technology 85

4. Readiness and capabilities for addressing climate change 90

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

4.1 Policy landscape 90

4.2 Institutional arrangements 95

4.3 Financing mechanism 96

4.4 Monitoring and evaluation 99

4.5 Technology and innovation 99

4.6 Awareness and capacity 100

4.7 Partnerships 101

4.8 Youth and children 102

4.9 Gender considerations 103

Part II: The strategy 106

5. Myanmar Climate Change Strategy 108

5.1 Strategic vision 108

5.2 2030 Goal 108

5.3 Objectives 108

5.4 Action areas 109

5.5 Priority sectors and outcomes 110

5.5.1. Climate-smart agriculture, fisheries and livestock for food security 111

5.5.2. Sustainable management of natural resources for healthy

ecosystem 112

5.5.3. Resilient and low-carbon energy, transport and industrial systems

for sustainable growth 112

5.5.4. Resilient, inclusive and sustainable cities and towns where people

can

live and thrive 113

5.5.5. Climate risk management for people's health and wellbeing 114

5.5.6. Education, science and technology for a resilient society 115

5.6 Strategic indicators 116

5.6.1 Achieving sectoral outcome 116

5.6.2. Phases 117

Part III: Implementing the strategy 119

6. Overall mission: to direct action for addressing climate change 120

7. Guiding principles 121

8. Strategic master plan and sectoral outcomes 122

9. The five pillars of implementation 131

9.1 Policy framework 131

9.2 Multi-stakeholder institutional mechanism 132

9.3 Climate finance mechanism 139

9.4 Capacity-strengthening framework 141

9.5 Monitoring, evaluation and learning framework 143

References 145

List of Figures

Figure 1: State and Regions of Myanmar 27

Figure 2: (a) Myanmar's three agro-ecological zones and

(b) Eight physiographic region 28

Figure 3: Population Density (people/km2)in Myanmar by State/Region 30

Figure 4: Proportion of state/region population to total population 31

Figure 5: Economic transformation in Myanmar 32

Figure 6: Structure of Myanmar's GDP, 2012-2013 32

Figure 7: Conceptual framework of Myanmar Climate Change Strategy

(2018-2030) 118

Figure 8: Inter-linkage of coordination body and implementing agencies 134

Figure 9: Key streams for financing the strategic master plan 141

List of Tables

Table 1: Drivers of growth in the state and regions 33

Table 2: Climate change projections for Myanmar, based on RCP 4.5 45

Table 3: Climate change projections for Myanmar, based on RCP 8.5 46

Table 4: Projected sea level rise for Myanmar 48

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

6. Overall mission: to direct action for addressing climate change 120

7. Guiding principles 121

8. Strategic master plan and sectoral outcomes 122

9. The five pillars of implementation 131

9.1 Policy framework 131

9.2 Multi-stakeholder institutional mechanism 132

9.3 Climate finance mechanism 139

9.4 Capacity-strengthening framework 141

9.5 Monitoring, evaluation and learning framework 143

References 145

List of Figures

Figure 1: State and Regions of Myanmar 27

Figure 2: (a) Myanmar's three agro-ecological zones and

(b) Eight physiographic region 28

Figure 3: Population Density (people/km2)in Myanmar by State/Region 30

Figure 4: Proportion of state/region population to total population 31

Figure 5: Economic transformation in Myanmar 32

Figure 6: Structure of Myanmar's GDP, 2012-2013 32

Figure 7: Conceptual framework of Myanmar Climate Change Strategy

(2018-2030) 118

Figure 8: Inter-linkage of coordination body and implementing agencies 134

Figure 9: Key streams for financing the strategic master plan 141

List of Tables

Table 1: Drivers of growth in the state and regions 33

Table 2: Climate change projections for Myanmar, based on RCP 4.5 45

Table 3: Climate change projections for Myanmar, based on RCP 8.5 46

Table 4: Projected sea level rise for Myanmar 48

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Table 5: Climate change impacts in Myanmar 49

Table 6: Climate change impacts on health sector 81

Table 7: Myanmar's climate change policies and climate change-

relevant strategies

and plans 92

Table 8: Bilateral and multilateral spending on climate-related projects

in Myanmar 97

Table 9: Strategic master plan comprising expected results and strategic indicators

for each of the six priority sector 123

Table10: Mapping SDGs and MCCS sectoral outcomes 129

Table 11: Mechanism for implementing, coordination and monitoring the MCCS 135

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Glossary

Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In

human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial

opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to

expected climate and its effects.

Adaptive capacity: The ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to

adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to

consequences.

Resilience: The capacity of social, economic and environmental systems to cope with a

hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that

maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the

capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation.

Mainstreaming: Integrating adaptation and mitigation objectives, strategies, policies,

measures or operations so that they become part of national and regional development

policies, processes and budgets at all levels and stages.

Low-carbon development or low-emission development strategies: Though no formally

agreed definition exists, LEDS are generally used to describe forward-looking national

economic development plans or strategies that encompass low-emission and/or climate-

resilient economic growth.

Mitigation: [In the context of climate change], a human intervention to reduce the

sources or enhance the sinks of GHGs.

Structural transformation: The reallocation of resources from one sector to another due

to changes in economic fundamentals and policies. It results in a significant change in

the sectoral composition of gross domestic product (GDP) with the share of the primary

employment and output sectors shifting to industry and modern services.

Sources of the Glossary: IPCC (2014); Clapp et al. (2010); WCED, 1987

Figures denote 2011 estimates.

GoM, 2017 National Environmental Policy of Myanmar, 2018, The Government of the Republic of the

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Sustainable development : Development that meets the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability

encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to

harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Acronyms

ADB Asian Development Bank

AF Adaptation Fund

AR5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report

CEDAW Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against

Women

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

COP Conference of Parties

CSAS Climate-smart Agriculture Strategy

DMH Department of Meteorology and Hydrology

DRM Disaster Risk Management

DRR Disaster Risk Reduction

ECD Environmental Conservation Department

ECL Environmental Conservation Law

FDI Foreign Direct Investment

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FESR Framework for Economic and Social Reform

GCF Green Climate Fund

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEF Global Environment Facility

GEF-TF Global Environment Facility Trust Fund

GHGs Greenhouse Gases

GoM Government of Myanmar

IIED International Institute for Environment and Development

INC Initial National Communication

INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution

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IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MAPDRR Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction

MCCA Myanmar Climate Change Alliance

MCCS Myanmar Climate Change Strategy

MCCP Myanmar Climate Change Policy

MDG Millennium Development Goals

MEL Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning

MERN Myanmar Environment Rehabilitation Network

MOALI Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation

MOE Ministry of Education

MOEE Ministry of Electricity and Energy

MOHA Ministry of Home Affairs

MOHS Ministry of Health and Sports

MOI Ministry of Industry

MOIN Ministry of Information

MONREC Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (formerly

MoECAF, the Ministry of Environmental Conservation and Forestry)

MOPF Ministry of Planning and Finance

MSWRR Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement

MOTC Ministry of Transportation and Communication

MRV Measurement, Reporting and Verification

MSDP Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan

MSMEs Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises

MT Metric Tons

NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action

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NBSAP National Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan

NCDP National Comprehensive Development Plan

NECCCCC National Environmental Conservation and Climate Change Central

Committee

NEP National Environmental Policy

NGOs Non-governmental Organisations

NSDS National Sustainable Development Strategy

REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation

RCP Representative Concentration Pathways

SCCF Special Climate Change Fund

SDGs Sustainable Development Goals

TWG Technical Working Group

UN United Nations

UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment)

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UN-Habitat United Nations Human Settlements Programme

UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund

WWF World Wide Fund for Nature

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Foreword by the Union Minister

Increasingly aware of the negative effects of climate change on people, economy

and infrastructure, Myanmar considers a priority the reinforcement of its policy and

institutional capacities to adapt, as well as to participate to the global effort to curb

global warming.

For this reason, between 2015 and 2017, we have engaged in an intense work of

policy and strategic participatory formulation, which was possible thanks the Technical

Working Group of the Myanmar Climate Change Alliance Programme (MCCA), our first

ever platform to coordinate and discuss climate change across ministries, cities, the civil

society, the private sector, the university and the development partners.

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation (MONREC)

has been the proud facilitator of this process that culminates with the adoption of the

present Myanmar Climate Change Policy and its related Myanmar Climate Change

Strategy and Master Plan 2018-2030(MCCSMP). Most importantly, it is crucial to

underline that these two documents are the result of extensive consultations and

meetings with all national ministries, high level authorities at national and state and

region level, the major city development committees, communities, the civil society, the

university and the development partners, through the relentless work of the TWG,

facilitated by MCCA and supported in their formulation by dedicated expertise from the

International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). This would not have

been possible without the generous support of the European Union and effective

implementation by UN-Habitat and UN Environment.

In effect, the challenges posed by climate change can only be addressed by a

partnership of stakeholders, across sectors, institutions, the private and public sector

and citizens of Myanmar. The

Myanmar Climate Change Policy

, and the related Strategy,

must be therefore regarded as the essential instruments to ensure coordinated and

effective action at national, sub-national and local level, as well as to attract and target

the support by international development partners. MONREC will continue to coordinate

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

action and monitor the progress, while all relevant ministries and sectoral stakeholders

will be called upon integrating climate change considerations in their action, in

compliance with the Policy, and to implement the Strategy.

The Policy and Strategy share the ambitious vision of transforming Myanmar into

a climate-resilient, low-carbon society that is sustainable, prosperous and inclusive, for

the wellbeing of present and future generations. I invite all stakeholders at national,

sub-national and local level as well as international communities to join hands and

make this vision a reality.

H. E. U Ohn Winn

Union Minister

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation

Republic of the Union of Myanmar

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Foreword by the Environmental Conservation

Department

The Environmental Conservation Department (ECD) has been tasked over the

last years to coordinate and champion the strengthening of the policy tools to address

climate change, as well as to coordinate stakeholders across sectors and from national

to local level. This is all the more imperative following the signature of the Paris

Agreement by Myanmar on 22

April 2016 after its adoption at the 21

Conference of the

Parties in 2015. ECD has undertaken this coordination task with enthusiasm and it is

therefore proud that the Myanmar Climate Change Policy, and its operational instrument

the

Myanmar Climate Change Strategy and Master Plan2018-2030

(MCCSMP) are adopted

by the Government of Myanmar.

These documents rest upon a robust consensus and ownership, obtained

through a patient and thorough consultation process conducted over the course of two

years, hand in hand with Departments from all Ministries; the Development Committees

of Yangon, Mandalay, and Nay Pyi Taw; representatives of the University; the civil

society; the private sector; as well as development partners assembled in the Myanmar

Climate Change Alliance Technical Working Group. In effect, aware that addressing

climate change implies an all-of-society effort, ECD has strived to elicit as many views as

possible: over 3000 individuals were consulted over 2 years at national level and in 5

sub-national consultations, with views from 13 townships, through 4 national

workshops, bilateral meetings and Thematic Working Groups on key areas. As a by-

product of this process, many policy-makers are more attuned to the implications of

climate change in their respective sectors, and better inclined to move ahead

withactions to address climate change issues.

ECD wishes to thank the European Union for funding the Myanmar Climate

Change Alliance (MCCA) and to express its gratitude to UN-Habitat and UN Environment

for the support of the successful implementation. ECD also sincerely thanks the

International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) for their tireless support

and expertise provided throughout the formulation process of the MCCP and MCCSMP.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

The MCCA has spared no effort to implement other policy, institutional, capacity-

building, awareness and local adaptation activities and to develop the Policy and

Strategy together with support from the IIED expert.

Myanmar is now better equipped to guide the action, mobilize resources and

finance to address climate change.These instruments, as a roadmap, will contribute to

meet both the goal of MSDP and commitment of Myanmar's NDC for the implementation

of Paris Agreement. In this context, cooperation and collaboration of international

development partners plays a crucial role to address the limitation of capacity, finance

and technology in Myanmar.

More importantly, it is the responsibility of all institutions toimplement the task

of mainstreaming these instruments into their respective development plans in order to

translate their ambitions into actions, so as to build resilience to climate change for the

benefit of the people of Myanmar.

U Hla Maung Thein

Director General

Environmental Conservation Department

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Foreword by the European Union

In December 2015, 195 countries gathered in Paris to negotiate a new global

climate agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC). The result – the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal – sets

out a global action plan to put the world on track to avoid climate change by limiting

global warming to well below 2°C. Two years later, Myanmar takes an important step

forward in putting the commitments of the Paris Agreement into practice.

The Myanmar Climate Change Policy complemented by the Myanmar Climate

Change Strategy and Master Plan (2018-2030) is setting the stage for a strategic answer

to the severe impacts of climate change in Myanmar. It aims to ensure that Myanmar's

socio-economic development goes hand-in-hand with an efficient use of its resources.

This will help Myanmar seize the many opportunities that stem from choosing a climate

resilient and low carbon development pathway, to the benefit of all the Myanmar people.

From making agriculture more sustainable to achieving heightened productivity in

industries that are climate resilient, it illustrates the manner in which choosing climate-

conscious development models benefits both individual families and the nation as a

whole.

Action against climate change can boost economic growth: in the European

Union emissions have decreased by 23% since 1990, while the GDP has grown by 46% in

the same period. During these years we have created new jobs, businesses and

technologies and competitive advantages that prepare us better for the new climate

compatible economy.

The European Union (EU) is a proud supporter of the Myanmar Climate Change

Alliance, which has worked tirelessly to produce this Climate Change Policy, Strategy and

Master Plan documents. We will continue to support Myanmar and other climate-

vulnerable nations to develop national climate plans and make the transition to low-

carbon climate-resilient economies.

Paris was a defining moment in safeguarding the planet for future generations.

We must maintain that momentum in the years ahead, with lower emissions, greater

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

energy security and energy efficiency, innovation-driven growth. A lot remains to be

done, and we look forward to continuing our partnership with Myanmar against climate

change.

Kristian Schmidt

Ambassador of the European Union to Myanmar

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Foreword by the Development Partners

In 2015, United Nations' member states adopted the Sustainable Development

Goals, including Goal 13 to “

Take urgent action to combat climate change and its

impacts

”; the historic Paris Agreement to curb global greenhouse gas emissions and

address the effects of climate change; and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk

Reduction 2015-2030. These development milestones signify that countries are able to

join hands to address global challenges and recognize the enormous threat posed by

climate change. Myanmar, a party to the United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change (UNFCCC), is actively participating in this global process through

signature of the Paris Agreement and submission of its

Intended Nationally Determined

Contribution

(INDC), while reinforcing capacities at national level.

In Myanmar, observed and future effects of climate change heighten the risks of

rapid on-set disasters – such as floods and cyclones – with recurrent loss of lives and

economic set-backs. They also bring silent, deep changes, such as erratic rainfall

patterns and higher temperatures that are already reducing agricultural productivity in

the central dry zone area as well as sea level rise and soil salinization that erode human

settlements and infrastructure, already driving many to seek alternative livelihoods in

urban areas or abroad, thus affecting Myanmar's society and economy.

Acknowledging these challenges, Myanmar has made significant progress to

equip itself with the institutional and policy instruments required to address climate

change at national level. It has formulated and adopted the

Myanmar Climate Change

Policy

, a crucial document that mandates climate change adaptation and mitigation

considerations are integrated into national priorities across all sectors, in the decades

ahead. Notably, the policy mandates the implementation of the

Myanmar Climate

Change Strategy

(MCCS) 2018-2030 to achieve climate resilience and maximize

opportunities for low-carbon development. Both documents enjoy the highest level of

ownership by the institutions and the people of Myanmar, having been developed

through extensive consultations with government ministries, states and regions and

townships, civil society, the private sector, gender and youth representatives, as well as

academic institutions and other development partners.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

The United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) and the United

Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) are proud to support Myanmar in

these processes, in particular in the formulation of the

Myanmar Climate Change Policy

MCCP, Strategy and Master Plan

MCCSMP 2018-2030, through the

Myanmar Climate

Change Alliance Programme

, generously funded by the European Union, and under the

leadership of the Environmental Conservation Department.

The United Nations stands ready to support the Government and the people of

Myanmar in achieving their ambitions to transform Myanmar into a climate-resilient,

low-carbon society that is sustainable, prosperous and inclusive, for the wellbeing of

present and future generations.

The Myanmar Climate Change Alliance Implementing Partners

Atsushi Koresawa

Regional Director

Asia and the Pacific Office

UN-Habitat

Dechen Tsering

Regional Director

Asia and the Pacific Office

UN Environment

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Executive summary

Myanmar has achieved significant growth in recent years, and projections

indicate that growth will accelerate due to lower levels of political uncertainty and

strong investment (WEF 2016). However, the impacts of climate change have already

undermined development outcomes and will continue to do so for future development

outcomes if these impacts are not managed or addressed.

The observed and projected changes in climate include a general increase in

temperature, variation in rainfall and an increased occurrence and severity of extreme

weather events such as cyclones, floods, droughts, intense rains and extreme high

temperatures. The country is also experiencing a decrease in the duration of the

southwest monsoon season due to its late onset and early retreat (NAPA 2013).

Current patterns of socioeconomic development rely on climate-sensitive sectors

and regions. For example, agriculture is the largest economic sector, contributing to 30

percent of GDP and employing to 61 percent of the labour force (MOAI 2014). An increase

in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events has caused a decline in

agricultural productivity, which has resulted in a decrease in GDP and household income

and rising food insecurity (MOAI 2015). Myanmar's population and economic activities

are concentrated in disaster risk-prone areas such as the Delta, Coastal and Central Dry

Zones, which are highly exposed to hazards and have both high poverty levels and low

response capacity. Coastal regions are particularly at risk from sea level rise and

cyclones, while the lowlands and Central Dry Zone are vulnerable to the impacts of

floods and droughts, respectively. Communities and businesses located in at-risk regions

and reliant on climate-sensitive economic activities are particularly vulnerable to the

impacts of climate change (NAPA 2013; IPCC 2014).

Due to its exposure and sensitivity to current and projected weather patterns,

Myanmar is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In the past 20 years

(1995–2014), it has been exposed to 41 extreme weather events resulting in a death toll

of 7, 146 (annual average) inhabitants and an annual average of 0.74 percent loss per

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

unit in GDP – making it the second-most affected country to extreme weather events

(Kreft et al. 2016).

Myanmar's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is low — for

example, GHG contributions from its industry and construction sectors combined was 10

percent of total emissions in 2000 (INC 2012). However, unplanned growth in the

industry, energy, transport and urban sectors could increase its GHG emission levels.

Climate-smart responses can provide opportunities for current and future

development in Myanmar. The Paris Climate Agreement has strengthened international

and national political will, policy direction and financial investment in climate-resilient

and low-carbon development.

Myanmar's economy is undergoing structural transformation. The sectoral

composition of GDP is changing: primary sectors such as agriculture and forestry are

contributing less to employment, productivity and manufacturing and the service sector

is contributing more. Investment in a climate-resilient, low-carbon development

pathway and adopting environmentally sound technologies at an early stage can provide

sustainable and resource-efficient opportunities for socio-economic development,

including green jobs and long-lasting business models. Myanmar is also undergoing a

democratisation process, giving diverse national and local-level actors the opportunity

to shape and benefit from inclusive and climate-resilient development.

Recognizing these circumstances, the Government of the Republic of the Union of

Myanmar formulated and adopted its Myanmar Climate Change Policy (MCCP) to provide

long-term direction and guidance for government, civil society, and the private sector to

undertake and promote climate change actions in adaptation and mitigation in Myanmar

and to create opportunities for sustainable and low-carbon development.

To this end, the MCCP mandates the adoption of actionable short, medium and

long-term strategies and plans to address climate change, and in particular the adoption

and implementation of the Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (MCCS) 2018-2030.

In compliance with the recommendation, the MCCS 2018-2030 has been

formulated and adopted to provide a roadmap for Myanmar to strategically address

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

climate-related risks, and also seize opportunities, over the next 13 years and beyond.

The MCCS fully builds on the Myanmar Climate Change Policy' (MCCP) principles and

also upholds principles of:

(a) Inclusive development that allows poor, landless, marginalised and

vulnerable women, men and geographic regions to shape and benefit from

opportunities provided by climate-resilient and low-carbon development;

(b) Driving action to deliver resource-efficient development that will incentivise

investment in a green economy to achieve growth targets with minimal

environmental harm and carbon emissions;

society, private sector entities and communities to align, harmonise and

coordinate policies and programmes to support the strategy's overall

objectives; and

(d) Supporting results-oriented development through a time-bound goal and

objectives to achieve this vision and strategic priorities to help the priority

sectors implement the strategy.

The MCCS contributes to materialize the MCCP Vision for the Country

to be a

climate-resilient, low-carbon society that is sustainable, prosperous and inclusive, for

the wellbeing of present and future generations

. It aims to guide action to achieve its

strategic vision, goal and objectives. It was prepared in close consultation with national

and local stakeholders representing a cross-section of government institutions, national

non-governmental organisations (NGOs), communities, the private sector, development

partners, professionals and academia, covering a wide range of sectors. The government

engaged with stakeholders through bilateral discussions, four national workshops and

five sub-national workshops in five of Myanmar's climate-vulnerable states/regions.

Thousands of participants from local government, civil society organisations,

communities and the private sector were involved.

In line with the vision above, Myanmar aims to become a climate-resilient

country, while also contributing to global efforts to curb GHG emissions, reducing its

contribution to climate change within a realistic timeline of 13 years. Myanmar wishes to

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

develop in a sustainable way to ensure it does not deplete its rich environmental capital

beyond its capacity, and to create economic opportunities for everyone in an inclusive

manner.

The long-term goal to achieve this vision is that

by 2030, Myanmar has achieved

climate-resilience and pursued a low-carbon growth pathway to support inclusive and

sustainable development.

To achieve its goal as set out above, Myanmar needs to direct its development

actions (specifically in the priority sectors of its economy) along two strategic pathways

that represent the two objectives of this strategy:

(a) To increase the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities and sectors so

they are resilient to the impacts of climate change, and

(b) To create and maximise opportunities for potential sectors to follow a low-

carbon development pathway ensuring development benefits to households

and all economic sectors.

Action areas

To increase Myanmar's adaptive capacity and maximise opportunities from low-

carbon development, the strategy will focus on the six action areas outlined below.

Actions will enable the government and its development partners, private sector entities,

civil society and households to invest in climate-resilient and low-carbon development

in priority social and economic development sectors.

(a) Policy: Build a climate-responsive policy environment that integrates

climate-smart initiatives into sectoral and development policies and plans

and provides the knowledge needed to achieve this.

(b) Institutions: Establish operational institutional arrangements and a

coordination mechanism to monitor progress against achieving objectives

and enable an inclusive approach to implementing climate-smart

investments in priority sectors.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

mobilise and allocate resources, enabling sectors to access and channel

climate finance opportunities for inclusive investment in climate-resilient and

low-carbon development.

(d) Capacity and technology: Increase access to adequate capacity and

technology across sectors and actors to enable the delivery of climate-smart

responses.

(e) Awareness: Build awareness and capacities at all levels of society to enable

climate-smart decision making.

(f) Partnerships: Build functional multi-stakeholder partnerships in the public,

private and civil society sectors across local, national and international levels

to support and promote investment in and implementation of climate-smart

initiatives.

Sectoral outcomes

To increase the adaptive capacity of and maximise opportunities from low-

carbon and climate resilient development, the strategy will guide investment in the six

priority social and economic development sectors that contribute to current and planned

economic and social development in Myanmar. These six sectors are: agriculture,

fisheries and livestock sector; natural resource management; energy, transport and

industrial systems; towns and cities; disasters, risks and health impacts; and education,

awareness and technological systems.

The action areas identified above will deliver significant transformation in priority

sectors to ensure that current and future investments are resilient to the impacts of

climate change and can unlock opportunities from climate-resilient and low-carbon

development, including opportunities related to green and inclusive job creation,

sustainable revenue generation and innovative business models.

Sector-specific outcomes that will help achieve the objectives above and enable

Myanmar to reach its goal for a climate resilient and low carbon society by 2030 include:

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

(a) Climate-resilient productivity and climate-smart responses in the agriculture,

fisheries and livestock sectors to support food security and livelihood

strategies while also promoting resource-efficient and low-carbon practices.

(b) Natural resource management that enhances the resilience of biodiversity and

ecosystem services that support social and economic development and deliver

carbon sequestration.

that support inclusive and sustainable development and economic growth.

(d) All township and city dwellers, including the most vulnerable, are safe from

increased risks of rapid- and slow-onset natural disasters and live in

sustainable, inclusive, low-carbon, climate-resilient towns.

(e) Communities and economic sectors are able to respond to and recover from

climate-induced disasters, risks and health impacts and build a healthy

society, and

(f) Strengthened education, awareness and technological systems that foster a

climate-responsive society and human capital to design and implement

climate-resilient and low-carbon development solutions for inclusive and

sustainable development.

Implementation pillars

The strategy will be implemented through five pillars. These are:

(a) An overarching policy framework to guide coherent investment in climate-

resilient and low-carbon development

(b) A multi-stakeholder institutional mechanism to coordinate action across

actors and scales

investment in climate-resilient and low-carbon development

(d) A capacity-strengthening framework to enhance the capacity of actors across

scale to plan and implement climate-resilient and low-carbon development

initiatives, and

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

(e) A monitoring evaluation and learning framework to guide evidence-based

and iterative solutions for climate-resilient and low-carbon development.

Master Plan

The MCCS is aligned with Myanmar's development policies — supporting the

National Comprehensive Development Plan (NCDP), Myanmar Sustainable Development

Plan (MSDP) and National Sustainable Development Strategy — and is mandated by the

Myanmar Climate Change Policy (MCCP) as well as the National Adaptation Programme

of Action (NAPA)and the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The MCCS also

complements the country's Green Growth Strategy and emerging Reducing Emissions

from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD)+ strategy which is currently under

preparation.

The MCCS contains detailed sectoral plans that identify time-bound priority actions

to achieve sector outcomes.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Part I: Development in the context of climate change

1. National circumstances

The Republic of the Union of Myanmar is between latitudes 09°32´N and 28°31´N

and longitudes 92°10´E and 101°11´E. The country shares its border with India,

Bangladesh, China, Laos and Thailand. With a land area of 676,552km

, it has the largest

landmass of the mainland Southeast Asian countries.

Figure 1: States and Regions of Myanmar (Source: INC 2012)

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

The country is divided into three main agroecological zones —Central Dry,

Coastal and Hilly and eight physiographic regions (see Figure 2). The land area comprises

the central lowlands of the Ayeyarwady, Chindwin and Sittaung River valleys, highlands

in the north, east and west and the coastal belt in the south and southwest. Almost half

48.2percent of Myanmar's land is under forest; 19.2 percent is classified as agricultural

and 32.6 percent as 'other' (CIA World Factbook2016).

Figure 2: (a) Myanmar’s three agro-ecological zones and (b) eight physiographic regions

(Source: NAPA 2012)

1.1 Climate

Myanmar has a tropical climate with three seasons: a cool winter from November

to February, a hot summer season in March and April and a rainy season from May to

Figures denote 2011 estimates.

(b)

(a)

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

October, dominated by the southwest monsoon. The Central Dry Zone has the lowest

mean annual rainfall (500-1,000 mm/year); it is higher in the Eastern and Northern Hilly

Regions; and highest in the Southern and Rakhine Coastal Regions (2,500-5,500

mm/year) (Egashira and Aye 2006). Seasonal temperatures vary greatly throughout most

of Myanmar. In the Central Dry Zone, temperatures range from a maximum of 40-43 ˚C in

the hot/dry season to 10-15 ˚C in the cool/relatively dry season and decrease from 0˚C to

-1˚C in the highlands. The south of the country does not experience much variation in

seasonal temperature (Egashira and Aye 2006).

1.2 Demography

Myanmar has a total population of 51.48 million: 24.82 million male and 26.66

million female (GoM 2015b). With an annual growth rate of 0.89 percent, the country has

one of Southeast Asia's lowest growth rates. About 60 percent of the population is

concentrated in five states and regions — Yangon (7.36 million); Ayeyarwady (6.18

million); Mandalay (6.16 million); Shan (5.82 million); and Sagaing (5.32 million). The

least populated states and regions — Kayah (286,000), Chin (478,000), Nay Pyi Taw (1.16

million), Taninthayi (1.40 million) and Kayin (1.57 million) — account for only 9.5 percent

of the population. See Figure 3 for the population distribution and for the proportion of

the population by state/region. Myanmar's population is diverse, with 135 ethnic groups

who speak around 100 different languages (Austin and Sallabank 2011).

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Figure 3: Population Density (people/km

) in Myanmar by State/Region (Source:GoM

2015b)

The census (GoM 2015b) shows that in 2014, about 70.4 percent of the

population lived in rural areas and 29.6 percent in urban areas. Ayeyarwady had the

largest proportion of rural population (about 86 percent), followed by Magway (85 per

cent) and Sagaing and Rakhine (83 per cent). Yangon Region has the highest proportion

of people (70.1 per cent) living in urban areas, followed by Kachin (35.9 per cent) and

Mandalay (34.8 per cent). The average population density in Myanmar is 76 persons per

square kilometer; Yangon is the most densely populated state/region (723), followed by

Mandalay (206). The least densely populated are Chin state (13) followed by Kachin state

(19). With the increase in population in all states and regions, population density has

Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

increased across the country. Increases are most pronounced in areas of greater

urbanisation (GoM 2014).

Figure 4: Proportion of state/region population to total population (Source: GoM 2015b)

1.3 Economic development

Myanmar's economy is growing. Real GDP growth in the country was 8.4 percent

in 2013, 8 percent in 2014,7 percent in 2015, 5.9 percent in 2016, 6.8 percent in 2017 and

it is projected to be 6.4 percent in 2018 (IMF 2016). The implementation of major

economic reform programmes and re-engagement with the international community has

led to visible improvements in the economy.

Macroeconomic growth in Myanmar is characterised by structural transformation.

The sectoral composition of GDP is changing, with industry and services taking a larger

share of employment and output (Figure 6). The natural resources sector continues to

substantially support economic growth. Agriculture is the largest economic sector,

contributing to 30 percent of GDP (MOALI 2015). Natural gas exports also contribute

significantly to economic growth, while the manufacturing and services sectors

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

increased across the country. Increases are most pronounced in areas of greater

urbanisation (GoM 2014).

Figure 4: Proportion of state/region population to total population (Source: GoM 2015b)

1.3 Economic development

Myanmar's economy is growing. Real GDP growth in the country was 8.4 percent

in 2013, 8 percent in 2014,7 percent in 2015, 5.9 percent in 2016, 6.8 percent in 2017 and

it is projected to be 6.4 percent in 2018 (IMF 2016). The implementation of major

economic reform programmes and re-engagement with the international community has

led to visible improvements in the economy.

Macroeconomic growth in Myanmar is characterised by structural transformation.

The sectoral composition of GDP is changing, with industry and services taking a larger

share of employment and output (Figure 6). The natural resources sector continues to

substantially support economic growth. Agriculture is the largest economic sector,

contributing to 30 percent of GDP (MOALI 2015). Natural gas exports also contribute

significantly to economic growth, while the manufacturing and services sectors

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

increasingly contribute (World Bank 2014). For example, industry's share in GDP

increased from less than 10 percent to 26 percent over the last decade.

In June 2015, 40.40 percent of foreign direct investment (FDI) was in oil and gas;

38.70 percent in power; 9.71 percent in manufacturing; 6.49 percent in transport and 5.05

percent in mining (MOALI 2015). In 2010, 52 percent of jobs were in agriculture, 36

percent in services and 12 percent in manufacturing (World Bank 2014). By 2030,

manufacturing could become the economy's leading sector, creating a large number of

jobs (Chhor

etal.

, 2013).

Figure 5: Economic transformation in Myanmar(Source: ADB 2012b)

Figure 6: Structure of Myanmar's GDP, 2012–2013 (Source: GoM2014)

22.5

8.5

0.4

0.1

0.8

1.1

5.2

21.6

18.8

Agriculture Livestock and fishery Forestry

Energy Mining Processing & Manufacturing

Electric power Construction SERVICES

TRADE

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

The sectors that drive economic growth at region and states level vary, but they

rely primarily on agriculture, industry or services-led growth (see Table 1).

Table 1: Drivers of growth in the regions and states

Region/state Structure focus

Ayeyarwady Agricultural services

Bago

Industry/agriculture

Chin Agriculture

Kachin Industry services

Kayah Services industry

Kayin

Services industry

Magway Agricultural industry

Mandalay Growth centre

Mon

Services industry

Rakhine

Agriculture industry

Sagaing Agriculture industry

Shan

Agriculture services

Taninthayi Agriculture services

Yangon

Growth centre

Source: National Comprehensive Development Plan (2014)

At the micro level, the main source of household income varies across regions

and by wealth and gender. For example, in 2013, the most common source of household

income in the Hilly Zone was selling non-rice cereals; in the Dry Zone, it was selling

beans, pulses and peanuts; and in the Coastal/Delta Zone, it was paddy sales. Male-

headed households were more likely to earn income from the sale of agricultural

products; female-headed households were more likely to earn money from casual

agricultural labour. For households with an average monthly income of less than 50,000

kyat (roughly US$36), the most common income source was causal labour; middle-

income households were most likely to sell fresh wild catch of fish, prawns and crabs;

and the most common source of income for better-off households was the sale of

agricultural products (LIFT 2013).

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

1.4 Social development

Although the country has made progress against social development indicators,

this has not been equal across regions or ethnic groups (UNSD 2015). About 25.6 percent

of the population lives below the poverty line and nearly 85 percent of the poor live in

rural areas (UNDP 2011). Poverty levels vary substantially across geographic regions:

Rakhine (in the Coastal Zone) and Chin (in the Hilly Zone) are the poorest states, with

poverty rates of 78 and 71.5 percent respectively (World Bank 2014). There are also wide

socio-economic gaps within the population. Literacy levels are lowest in Shan

(65 percent), Kayin (74 percent) and Chin (79 percent). Unemployment in highest

Rakhine and Kayin. About 44 percent of urban households have access to electricity,

compared to only 5.6 percent of rural households (GoM 2014a).

1.5 Environmental development

The country is endowed with rich natural resources including biodiversity, forest,

water and mineral resources. Its diverse flora and fauna include more than 11,820 plants,

259 mammals, 1,056 bird, 297 reptile, 82 amphibian, 775 freshwater and marine fish, 5

marine turtle and 52 coral species, making it one of the richest biodiversity centres in

Asia and the Pacific.

Myanmar is rich in mineral wealth, including silver, lead, zinc and tungsten. It has

abundant water resources, comprising four main river basins — Ayeyarwady, Chindwin,

Sittaung and Thanlwin/Salween — with a catchment area of about 737,800km

. The

agriculture sector uses about 70 percent of freshwater resources; 7 percent is domestic

use and 3 percent for industrial purposes (ASEAN 2000). Myanmar has the potential to

generate 108,000 megawatts of electricity, which would fulfil the country's energy

demand. Myanmar has plans to make hydropower the sole electricity source by 2030;

and it also has a significant hydropower export potential (GoM 2016). Forest and aquatic

resources are a source of rural livelihoods, export earnings and tourism revenue.

Myanmar's rich and diverse natural resources are under pressure from internal

reforms, economic liberalisation and global trends, including climate change. The key

drivers of change include developments in the energy, industry and urban sectors, land

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

use change and deforestation (UN-Habitat and UNEP 2016). Unsustainable land use

practices and encroachment on forested areas have big environmental implications.

Rural households also rely heavily on forest resources: 69.2 percent of households use

firewood as their main source of energy (GoM 2014a). Illegal timber harvesting and forest

encroachment are an increasing threat to the forest: from 1989 to 1998, Myanmar's

deforestation rate was around 466,420 hectares per annum (INC, 2012).

The oil, gas and coal industries are all on track to expand (World Bank 2014). The

transport sector is the largest consumer of fossil fuels, contributing 20 per cent of GHG in

2000, and its consumption levels are projected to increase dramatically (INC 2012).

If Myanmar does not manage its natural resources properly, it could lead to

resource inefficiency and exacerbate inequality in the country.This is recognized in the

revised National Environmental Policy (NEP, 2017) as decribed here under

1.6 Governance systems

Myanmar is a parliamentary republic, with executive, legislative and judicial

branches that are responsible for decision making. The central administrative unitis the

Union and the constitution has divided the country into 14 administrative units — seven

states (Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Chin, Mon, Shan and Rakhine) and seven regions (Magway,

Mandalay, Sagaing, Bago, Taninthayi, Ayeyarwady and Yangon). Yangon is the largest city

and former capital city, but the smaller, more central Nay Pyi Taw now serves as capital

(Egashira and Aye 2006). States and regions are subdivided into districts, which are

further subdivided into townships, sub-townships, wards, village tracts and villages.

In terms of inclusive decisionmaking, Myanmar is in transition to political

democratisation and decentralisation. The democratic process started in 2010, with its

first general election in 20 years, and by-elections in 2012. The National League for

Democracy won the second general election in November 2015.

GoM, 2017 National Environmental Policy of Myanmar, 2018, The Government of the Republic of the

Union of Myanmar, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conservation, Environmental

Conservation Department

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Decentralisation, instigated through the 2008 Constitution, has resulted in the

reorganisation of Myanmar's governance system,allocating power to regions and states

and giving them a mandate for the following roles and responsibilities:

(a) Enacting laws pertaining to certain sectors (Schedule 2 of constitution)

(b) Making laws

Budget

(d) Collecting taxes and revenues

(e) Spending the regional and state fund

(f) Managing, guiding, supervising and inspecting local government activities

(g) Supervising, inspecting and coordinating civil service organisations

(h) Forming civil service organisations to support regional and state governance

objectives and appoint their personnel.

Union government appoints local government ministers and their cabinets. The

latter are accountable to the former. This process has increased representation of

regional and ethnic parties (Nixon

et al

. 2013).

Myanmar is a parliamentary republic, with executive, legislative and judicial

branches that are responsible for decisionmaking. Within the legislative process, the

union is responsible for devising, adopting, planning and budgeting laws — for example,

the Union Budget Law, the National Planning Law and the Taxation Law.

The National Comprehensive Development Plan (NCDP) guides all national

development planning, including long-term reforms for 2011-2030, to be succeeded by

the National Sustainable Development Plan (NSDP). It will be formed of four three-year

plans, the first of which is already underway. The Framework for Economic and Social

Reform (FESR), which bridges the first NDCP three-year plan, outlines short-term policy

priorities to meet the aims of the NCDP. It guides detailed sectoral and regional plans,

indicates potential quick wins for tangible and sustainable development benefits and

advises cooperation with development partners and international bodies. The FESR is

the go-to tool for guiding development policies and plans.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

The Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP)

is the main governing

development framework for the country. The objective of the MSDP is to give coherence

to the policies and institutions necessary to achieve genuine, inclusive and

transformational economic growth in Myanmar. The MSDP will offer a framework for

actions to provide practical solutions to problems, while maximizing the opportunities

for the people of Myanmar to realize their full potential as citizens and in living happy

and productive lives. The MSDP is structured around 3 Pillars, 5 Goals, 28 Strategies and

238 Action Plans. All actions contained in it are firmly aligned with the SDGs, the 12

Point Economic Policy of the Union of Myanmar, and various regional commitments

which Myanmar has made as part of the Greater Mekong Sub-Region (GMS) Strategic

Framework, the ASEAN Economic Community, and many other.

2. Myanmar's development vision

Myanmar aims to become a "modern, developed and democratic nation" by 2030

(NCDP 2012-2031) by focusing on economic, social and environmental development.

Policy direction under each pillar includes: economic, social and environmental

development and climate change.

The guiding vision of the MSDP is a ‘Peaceful, Prosperous & Democratic

Myanmar'. It will achieve this through the MSDP Implementation Matrix comprised of the

Pillars, Goals, Strategies and Action Plans it contains, striking the right balance between

economic development, social development and environmental protection and based

firmly on the SDGs.

2.1 Economic development

The policy direction provided under the first three-year plan, the FESR and

sectoral plans focus on structural transformation. This aims to achieve a targeted shift in

sectoral contributions to GDP, with industry and services sectors increasing their

contributions and the agriculture sector decreasing theirs (GoM 2012). The 30-year

industrial plan and 2016 industrial policy target also aims to shift the country from an

agro-based to an industry-based economy by 2030.

The MSDP succeeds the National Comprehensive Development Plan (NCDP).

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

There is a strong policy focus on developing the capacity of business and human

resources to benefit from the business opportunities and jobs associated with structural

transformation. The country aims to invest in skills development programmes, small and

medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and sustainable business models. Sectors are also

adopting innovative practices to support the production and consumption of goods and

services. For example, policymakers are debating the mix of energy sources (renewable

energy, clean coal and fossil fuels), and business models (large or small-scale; on- or

off-grid) that should guide energy production and distribution.

Myanmar's economic policy direction is presented in the 12-Point Economic

Policy of Myanmar (2017), which aims to help national reconciliation, protect natural

resources and set an economic framework in order that natural resources will be

allocated equally among states and regions. The 12-Point Economic Policy highlights

some of the following points to guide the economic policy of the country:

 Transparent, good and strong public financial management system;

 Developing a skilled work force for a modern and developed economy and

creation of job opportunities;

 Development of infrastructure and increase investments;

 Establishment of environmentally sound towns and enhancement of public

services and public places; and

 Streamlining the tax system to increase national tax revenues.

2.2 Social development

Current policy direction aims to increase investment in inclusive development.

Human Resources and Social Devopment for a 21st Century Society'

is the 4th goal under

the ‘People and Planet' Pillar of the MSDP. The strategies under this goal aim to raise the

overall capacity of Myanmar's human capital and contribute to social development in

order to sustain economic development. This goal focuses primarily on improving quality

and access to education and health services, and expanding social protection

programmes. It also prioritizes improved access to quality food and nutrition and

protecting the rights of migrant workers.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

The Myanmar National Social Protection Strategic Plan (2014) is aligned with

thisby providing protective, preventive, promotive and transformative social protection

(GoM 2014b). The government aims to deliver "health for all" via a decentralised,

primary healthcare service that prioritises vulnerable groups, such as women, children

and the elderly.

The Myanmar Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation Strategy complements

the Social Protection Strategy. Implementing it increases productive activities with

universal programmes for vulnerable groups. The government has also increased

spending on the social sectors.

2.3 Environmental development

The government is encouraging people to get involved in environmental

conservation and management, and to extract natural resources sustainably. It is

committed to protecting biodiversity, conserving natural forests and greening the Dry

Zone's 17 mountain ranges. Since the 1990s, the government has developed

environmental policies and a set of general environmental strategies with strong visions

and objectives for a better environment and more sustainable development:

 Sound environmental management and biodiversity conservation are rooted

firmly in the MSDP which recognizes that protection of Myanmar's natural

environment is linked closely with prosperity of the country and is essential

ensuring Myanmar's development gains can be enjoyed by future

generations. Specific actions are contained in the dedicated strategy for

‘Managing the environment and biodiversity in a sustainable manner for

sound and resilient ecosystems'

under the 5

Goal of ‘

Natural Resources and

the Environment for National Prosperity'

under its People& Planet Pillar.

 The revised National Environment Policy (GoM 2018, NEP) and the 2012

Environmental Conservation Law provide strategic priorities and guiding

rules to manage the environment. In particular, the NEP recognises that

Myanmar's dependence on its natural capital is under existing pressure and

faces extreme threats from climate change, and that the country is

embarking on a new era of industrialisation, urbanisation and economic

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

development. Therefore, the NEP provides long-term guidance for

government, civil society, the private sector and development partners on

achieving environmental protection and sustainable development

objectives in Myanmar. The NEP was prepared to place environmental

considerations at the centre of efforts to promote economic and social

development, reduce poverty, and mitigate and adapt to climate change

and natural disasters.

 The 1995 Forest Policy emphasises the protection of soils, water

catchments, ecosystems, biodiversity, genetic resources, scenic reserves

and national heritage sites. It also recognises that fostering sustainable

forest management will ensure endlessness tangible and intangible benefits

to the present and future generations. It also aims for 30 percent of the

total land area to be reserved forest and five percent to be protected areas.

 The 2009 National Sustainable Development Strategy provides a framework

for integrating environmental considerations into future national

development plans.

 The 2015 National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) has

reinforced environmental sustainability.

 Other environmental policies include Agenda 21 (1997), the National Code

of Practice for Forest Harvesting (2000) and the National Water Policy

(2014).

The seventh Millennium Development Goal (MDG) emphasised environmental

sustainability and the SDGs continue in this trend. As a balanced development

approach, the FESR suggested giving special attention to minimising environmental

consequences while also developing other sectors, including energy and industry. The

government has also taken steps update its national environment policy, strategy and

master plan; its national waste management strategy and action plan; and its green

economy policy framework and to develop a national climate change policy.

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2.4 Climate change

Risk profile

Because of its geographic location and characteristics, Myanmar is exposed to

severe natural weather events, which have increased in intensity and frequency over the

last 60 years. Crossed by large river systems ending in a vast delta, many parts of

Myanmar experience heavyrain-induced floods in the centre of Southeast Asia's

southwest monsoon area. The nation's coast makes up more than half of the eastern

side of the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, which is prone to cyclones and

associated strong winds, heavy rains and storm surges. Droughts are also frequent,

particularly in central Myanmar.

The largest part of Myanmar's population is concentrated in two main areas: the

Delta area (around 50,400 km

) which is most exposed to recurring tropical storms,

cyclones and floods and potential storm-surge effects, and the Dry Zone area, which is

exposed to chronic drought and other risks. Importantly, in 2014, 70 percent of the total

rural population – in other words, most of Myanmar's population depended on rain-fed

agriculture, livestock and fishery and forest resources. It is clear that the livelihoods and

wellbeing of a large part of the population are highly sensitive and vulnerable to climate

change, climate variability and natural disaster.

Over the last six decades, changes in climate were observed that exacerbated

this risk profile (DMH, 2016; NAPA, 2012) and therefore increased the vulnerability of

Myanmar vis-à-vis natural rapid and slow on-set disasters.

Observed changes

Observed changes in the climate for Southeast Asia include: increased

temperatures; variable precipitation; a rise in sea level; and increased frequency and

magnitude of extreme weather events (Hijioka

et al.

2014).

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) under the Ministry of

Transportation and Communication analysed hydrometeorological indicators, which

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

revealed that Myanmar's climate is changing. There are certain observable trends over

last six decades:

(a) Mean temperature has risen by around 0.08°C each decade;

(b) Overall rainfall has mainly risen throughout the country — although it has

fallen in some areas;

(d) There are more extreme weather events; and

(e) Sea levels are rising.

A closer look at observed data also reveals that the shorter monsoon period

brings with it more intense rainfall events and that extreme events like destructive

cyclones make landfall on Myanmar's coastline annually, compared to once every three

years in the 20

century (NAPA2012).

A study of 19 DMH weather stations revealed an increase in temperature over the

last three decades (1981-2010) of 0.14°C and 0.35°C per decade for coastal and inland

regions respectively. It also revealed that total annual precipitation increased slightly

between 1981 and 2010, by 157 mm a decade in coastal areas and by 37 mm a decade

inland (Horton

et al.

2016).

Other observed extreme events are presented below.

(a) Increased prevalence of drought events: Drought years were frequent in the

1980s and 1990s; the country also faced severe drought in 2010.

(b) Higher intensity and frequency of cyclones and strong winds: From 1887 to

2015, 1,304 tropical storms formed in the Bay of Bengal; 80 (6.7 percent)

reached Myanmar's coastline (Study of Cyclonic Storms which crossed

Myanmar Coasts 1877 to 2015). Cyclones Mala (2006), Nargis (2008) and Giri

(2010) were the most severe and damaging cyclones Myanmar has

experienced.

intense rainfall events: Every year, Myanmar experiences intense rainfall.

From July to October in 2011, there was particularly heavy rain and flooding

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

in the Magway, Ayeyarwady and Bago Regions, Mon and Rakhine States (INC

2012).

(d) Increased occurrence of flooding: From 1910 to 2000, there were 12 major

floods in the country, and an increase in the frequency of flooding events in

the recent years (NAPA 2012). In July and August 2015, flooding and

landslides displaced 1.6 million people, causing almost 132 deaths. The cost

of the destruction was equivalent to more than three percent of Myanmar's

GDP in 2014/2015 (World Bank 2015a).

(e) More extreme high temperatures: During the summer of 2010, 1,482 cases of

heat-related disorders and 260 heat-related deaths were reportedacross

Myanmar.

(f) The late onset and early withdrawal of the monsoon means that its normal

average duration has decreased: the average annual duration was 144 days

over the 30 years period of 1961-1990, which has decreased to an average

annual duration of 121 days over the 30 years period 1981-2010.

Projected climate change

Projected changes in climate across Southeast Asia include higher mean annual

temperatures and more monsoon-related extremes. The future influence of climate

change on tropical cyclones will probably vary by region, but there is low confidence in

region-specific projections of frequency and intensity (Hijioka

et al.

2014).

The new climate change projections for Myanmar (see Table 2 and Table 3)

reveal a 0.8-2.7˚C increase of minimum temperature and a 0.8-2.6˚C increase of

maximum temperature by the end of 2100 under representative concentration pathway

(RCP) 4.5. Under RCP 8.5, minimum and maximum temperatures will increase by 0.9-

4.6˚C and 0.8-4.4˚C respectively. Precipitation is projected to rise by 36 percent under

RCP 4.5 and 40 percent under RCP 8.5

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the IPCC for

its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014, superseding its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections published in 2000.

The pathways are used for to describe four possible climate futures and result from different combinations of economic,

technological, demographic, policy, and institutional futures. RCP scenarios range from RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5

hence RCP 4.5 is one of the medium-low scenario and RCP 8.5 is the highest emission scenario. More information is available

from: http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5 scenario process/ RCPs.html

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Other key features of probable change at country level include:

(a) A general increase in temperature, with more extremely hot days and more

extreme rainfall, resulting in more droughts and floods

(b) An increased risk of flooding as a result of higher average rainfall intensity in

monsoon events

(but particularly in the north) from March to November and a decrease

between December and February(INC Report 2012)

(d) More frequent and more intense extreme weather events, including

cyclones/strongwinds, flood/storm surge, intense rains, extreme high

temperatures, drought and sea levelrise (MONREC2012a).

Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Table 2: Climate change projections for Myanmar, based on RCP 4.5

State/Region

Annual maximum temperature

increases (˚C)

Annual minimum temperature

increases (˚C)

Rainfall departure (%)

2021–

2040

2041-

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

2021–

2040

2041–

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

2021–

2040

2041

–

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

Ayeyarwady

0.8–1.1

1.2–1.8

1.5–2.2

1.8–2.5

0.7–1.2

1.3–1.8

1.6–2.3

1.9–2.4

3–14

5–15

12–30

25–40

Bago

0.8–1.3

1.3–2.0

1.9–2.9

2.3–3.8

0.8–1.2

1.4–1.9

1.8–2.4

2.1–2.6

3–14

5–15

12–30

25–40

Chin

0.8–1.2

1.4–2.1

1.8–2.7

1.9–2.8

0.9–1.3

1.5–2.1

2.0–2.7

2.3–3.0

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

10–30

Eastern Shan

0.8–1.3

1.4–2.3

1.8–3.1

2.1–3.6

0.9–1.4

1.5–2.2

1.9–2.6

2.8–4.5

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

10–30

Kachin

0.8–1.3

1.4–2.1

1.9–2.8

2.0–3.1

1.9–2.6

1.2–1.7

0.9–1.5

1.9–2.8

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

10–30

Kayah

0.9–1.4

1.6–2.4

1.8–2.9

2.3–3.9

0.9–1.4

1.6–2.3

2.0–2.7

2.3–2.8

-4 to 6

-7 to 5

-5 to 15

10–30

Kayin

0.7–1.2

1.2–2.0

1.8–2.9

2.2–3.8

0.8–1.2

1.4–2.0

1.8–2.5

2.1–2.6

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

25–40

Lower Sagaing

0.8–1.3

1.4–2.1

1.7–2.7

2.0–2.9

0.9–1.3

1.5–2.2

1.9–2.6

2.3–3.0

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

25–40

Magway

0.8–1.3

1.3–2.2

1.8–3.0

2.3–4.1

0.9–1.5

1.7–2.3

1.9–2.6

2.2–2.8

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

25–40

Mandalay

0.8–1.3

1.3–2.1

1.7–2.6

2.0–2.9

0.9–1.3

1.5–2.2

2.0–2.7

2.3–3.0

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

10–30

Mon

0.7–1.1

1.2–1.9

1.5–2.2

1.7–2.2

0.7–1.1

1.3–1.8

1.8–2.3

1.9–2.4

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

25–40

Northern Shan

0.9–1.5

1.4–2.3

1.9–3.2

2.3–4.2

0.9 –1.2

1.6–2.1

2.0–2.7

2.3–3.0

-4 to 6

7–17

12–30

10–30

Rakhine

0.7–1.1

1.3–2.1

1.7–2.9

2.2–3.8

1.0–1.3

1.2–1.8

1.7–2.4

1.9–2.5

3–14

7–17

12–30

25–40

SouthernShan

0.9–1.4

1.3–2.2

1.8–3.0

2.4–4.1

0.8–1.3

1.5–2.2

2.0–2.7

2.3–2.9

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

10–30

Taninthayi

0.8–1.5

1.2–1.9

1.5–2.4

1.7–2.4

0.8–1.3

1.3–1.8

1.6–2.1

1.8–2.8

-9 to 1

-7 to 5

-5 to 15

10–30

Upper Sagaing

0.8–1.4

1.2–1.8

1.8–2.7

1.8–2.9

1.0–1.3

1.5–1.9

1.9–2.6

2.2–2.9

-2 to 10

7–17

12–30

25–40

Yangon

0.8–1.2

1.3–2.0

1.8–2.9

2.3–3.8

0.8–1.2

1.4–1.9

1.8–2.3

2.0–2.5

3–14

5–15

12–30

25–40

Source: DMH new projection for RCP4.5 (2016)

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Table 2: Climate change projections for Myanmar, based on RCP 4.5

State/Region

Annual maximum temperature

increases (˚C)

Annual minimum temperature

increases (˚C)

Rainfall departure (%)

2021–

2040

2041-

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

2021–

2040

2041–

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

2021–

2040

2041

–

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

Ayeyarwady

0.8–1.1

1.2–1.8

1.5–2.2

1.8–2.5

0.7–1.2

1.3–1.8

1.6–2.3

1.9–2.4

3–14

5–15

12–30

25–40

Bago 0.8–1.3 1.3–2.0 1.9–2.9 2.3–3.8 0.8–1.2 1.4–1.9 1.8–2.4 2.1–2.6 3–14 5–15 12–30 25–40

Chin

0.8–1.2

1.4–2.1

1.8–2.7

1.9–2.8

0.9–1.3

1.5–2.1

2.0–2.7

2.3–3.0

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

10–30

Eastern Shan

0.8–1.3 1.4–2.3 1.8–3.1 2.1–3.6 0.9–1.4 1.5–2.2 1.9–2.6 2.8–4.5 -

2 to 10

5–15 12–30 10–30

Kachin

0.8–1.3 1.4–2.1 1.9–2.8 2.0–3.1 1.9–2.6 1.2–1.7 0.9–1.5 1.9–2.8 -

2 to 10

5–15 12–30 10–30

Kayah

0.9–1.4

1.6–2.4

1.8–2.9

2.3–3.9

0.9–1.4

1.6–2.3

2.0–2.7

2.3–2.8

-4 to 6

-7 to 5

-5 to 15

10–30

Kayin

0.7–1.2 1.2–2.0 1.8–2.9 2.2–3.8 0.8–1.2 1.4–2.0 1.8–2.5 2.1–2.6 -

2 to 10

5–15 12–30 25–40

Lower Sagaing

0.8–1.3

1.4–2.1

1.7–2.7

2.0–2.9

0.9–1.3

1.5–2.2

1.9–2.6

2.3–3.0

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

25–40

Magway

0.8–1.3 1.3–2.2 1.8–3.0 2.3–4.1 0.9–1.5 1.7–2.3 1.9–2.6 2.2–2.8 -

2 to 10

5–15 12–30 25–40

Mandalay

0.8–1.3 1.3–2.1 1.7–2.6 2.0–2.9 0.9–1.3 1.5–2.2 2.0–2.7 2.3–3.0 -

2 to 10

5–15 12–30 10–30

Mon

0.7–1.1

1.2–1.9

1.5–2.2

1.7–2.2

0.7–1.1

1.3–1.8

1.8–2.3

1.9–2.4

-2 to 10

5–15

12–30

25–40

Northern

Shan 0.9–1.5 1.4–2.3 1.9–3.2 2.3–4.2

0.9

–1.2 1.6–2.1 2.0–2.7 2.3–3.0 -

4 to 6

7–17 12–30 10–30

Rakhine

0.7–1.1

1.3–2.1

1.7–2.9

2.2–3.8

1.0–1.3

1.2–1.8

1.7–2.4

1.9–2.5

3–14

7–17

12–30

25–40

Southern

Shan 0.9–1.4 1.3–2.2 1.8–3.0 2.4–4.1 0.8–1.3 1.5–2.2 2.0–2.7 2.3–2.9 -

2 to 10

5–15 12–30 10–30

Taninthayi

0.8–1.5

1.2–1.9

1.5–2.4

1.7–2.4

0.8–1.3

1.3–1.8

1.6–2.1

1.8–2.8

-9 to 1

-7 to 5

-5 to 15

10–30

Upper

Sagaing 0.8–1.4 1.2–1.8 1.8–2.7 1.8–2.9 1.0–1.3 1.5–1.9 1.9–2.6 2.2–2.9 -

2 to 10

7–17 12–30 25–40

Yangon

0.8–1.2 1.3–2.0 1.8–2.9 2.3–3.8 0.8–1.2 1.4–1.9 1.8–2.3 2.0–2.5 3–14 5–15 12–30 25–40

Source: DMH new projection for RCP4.5

(2016)

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Table 3: Climate change projections for Myanmar, based on RCP 8.5

State/

region

Annual maximum temperature increases

(

Annual minimum temperature increases

(

Rainfall departure (%)

2021–

2040

2041-

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

2021–

2040

2041–

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

2021–

2040

2041–

2060

2061–

2081

2081–

2100

Ayeyarwady

0.9–1.2

1.6–2.1

2.3–3.0

3.2–4.0

0.8–1.3

1.7–2.3

2.2–3.2

3.1–4.1

6–13

14–25

12–44

10–31

Bago 0.9–1.3 1.6–2.1 2.4–3.1 3.3–4.1 0.9–1.4 1.8–2.4 2.5–3.4 3.4–4.4 6–13 14–25 12–44 10–31

Chin

0.6–1.3

1.5– 2.4

2.0–3.3

2.2–4.4

1.0–1.4

2.0–2.7

2.6–3.7

3.7–5.0

6–13

14–25

12–44

10–31

Eastern Shan

1.0–1.3 1.6–2.3 2.5–3.3 3.4–4.3 1.0–1.6 2.0–2.7 2.7–3.6 3.7–4.8 -

7 to 7

7–15 3–25 10–31

Kachin

0.9–1.5 1.5– 2.4 2.6–3.6 3.5–5.0 0.9–1.3 1.9–2.6 2.5–3.6 3.6–4.9 6–13 14–25 12–44 10–31

Kayah

0.9–1.4

1.5–2.1

2.5–3.2

3.4–4.3

1.0–1.5

2.0–2.7

2.6–3.6

3.7–4.8

-7 to 7

7–15

12–44

10–31

Kayin

0.9–1.2 1.5–2.1 2.3–3.1 3.3–4.2 0.9–1.4 1.8–2.4 2.4–3.4 3.4–4.5 -

7 to 7

14–25 12–44 10–31

Lower Sagaing

0.8–1.4

1.5–2.4

2.5–3.4

3.5–4.8

1.0–1.6

2.0–2.8

2.8–3.9

3.8–5.2

-7 to 7

7–15

12–44

16-54

Magway

0.8–1.3 1.5–2.2 2.3–3.2 3.4–4.5 0.9–1.4 1.9–2.6 2.5–3.6 3.5–4.8 6–13 14–25 12–44 10–31

Mandalay

0.8–1.4

1.6–2.3

2.4–3.3

3.5–4.6

1.0–1.6

2.1–2.8

2.7–3.8

3.8–5.1

-7 to 7

7–15

3–25

10–31

Mon 0.7–1.0 1.2–1.9 1.5–2.2 1.7–2.2 0.8–1.3 1.7–2.3 2.2–3.2 3.1–4.2 -

7 to 7

7–15 12–44 10–31

Northern Shan

1.0–1.5 1.6–2.4 2.6–3.4 3.4–4.5 1.0–1.5 2.1–2.8 2.7–3.7 3.8–5.0 -

7 to 7

14–25 12–44 10–31

Rakhine

0.7–1.1

1.5–2.2

2.3–3.1

3.1–4.1

0.8–1.3

1.6–2.3

2.2–3.1

3.1–4.2

6–13

14–25

12–44

10–31

Southern Shan

1.0–1.3 1.6–2.3 2.5–3.2 3.4–4.4 1.0–1.5 2.0–2.7 2.6–3.7 3.7–4.8 -

7 to 7

7–15 3–25 10–31

Taninthayi

0.9–1.4 1.6–2.5 2.4–3.5 3.4–

4.7

0.9–1.4 1.7–2.2 2.2–3.2 3.1–4.3 -

7 to 7

7–15 3–25 10–31

Upper Sagaing

0.7–1.4 1.7–2.4 2.4–3.5 3.7–5.0 1.0–1.6 1.9–2.6 2.5–3.6 3.5–5.0 6–13 14–25 12–44 16–54

Yangon

1.0–1.3

1.6–2.1

2.4-3.1

3.3–4.1

0.9–1.4

1.8–2.4

2.5–3.4

3.4–4.3

6–13

14–25

12–44

10–31

Source: DMH new projection for RCP8.5

(2016)

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Sea level rise is one of the most pressing concerns for the coastal area,

particularly the Ayeyarwady Delta region, which will be exposed to increased salinity,

coastal erosion and inundation. Deltas are likely to respond rapidly to both natural and

anthropogenic climate and sea-level change, and there is potential for significant

impacts on the people who live there. Globally, sea level is projected to rise 0.26-

0.82metres by 2100; regional sea level is predicted to rise by another 10 percent. If sea

level rises by 0.5 metres, the shoreline on the Ayeyarwady Delta would move inland by

10 kilometres, with significant impact on local communities and agriculture.

Stakeholder consultations — part of the strategy formulation process — validated

and substantiated the observed changes in climate presented in the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5), Myanmar's NAPA and the

new climate change projections DMH presented in June 2016. These observed changes

vary according to region — for example, stakeholders in Rakhine and Ayeyarwady

observed a rise in sea level, frequent cyclones, salt-water intrusion and flooding, while in

Bago, Mandalay and Kachin they observed an increase in droughts and floods.

The projections of Sea level rise for Myanmar's coast range from 20 to 41

centimetres

by the 2050s. Projections for the 2080s, range from 37 to 83 cm, and they

could rise as high as 122 cm

vii

(Horton

et al.

2016). Table 4 shows the middle range of

results. These values are consistent along the coast (with minor variability of +/-1cm in

projections across different grid cells).

Local results may differ in some areas due to changes in the height of the land,

as these results do not take into account local land subsidence. Although projected

changes in cyclone severity and frequency are still uncertain, coastal inundation during

and independent of cyclones will probably worsen as sea level rises. These projections

also take into account various global and regional components that contribute to

changes in sea level, including thermal expansion and local ocean height (ocean

component), loss of land ice and global land water storage.

The ranges for projections are presented as the 25th and 75th percentiles across the RCP4.5 and

RCP8.5 emissions scenarios.

vii

This is the 90th percentile across the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Table 4: Projected sea level rise for Myanmar

Timeline Middle range of projected sea level rise

(cm)

2020s

5–13

2050s

20–41

2080s 37–83

Data sources: CMIP5; Bamber and Aspinall (2013); Marzion

et al.

(2012); Radic

et al.

(2013);

Church

et al.

(2013).

3. Implications of climate change on development

Myanmar is experiencing significant impacts from climate change. In 2015, it was

ranked as the world's second-most vulnerable country to extreme weather events for the

third consecutive year (Kreft 2016). Adverse impacts of climate change cut across sectors

and societies. For example, impacts on agriculture will reduce contributions to GDP

growth and affect the livelihoods of both small-firm households and agricultural

labourers.

The main climate-related drivers of impacts on development in Southeast Asia

include: warming and drying trends, extreme temperatures, extreme precipitation,

damaging cyclones, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. These drivers will probably

affect agricultural productivity and lead to water shortages, more riverine, coastal and

urban flooding and an increase in climate-induced public health issues. They will also

exacerbate poverty and inequity in the region (Hijioka

et al.

2014).

Both observed and projected changes in climate tell us that the main climate-

related drivers to affect Myanmar's development will include: increasing temperature

trends; extreme temperature and precipitation events such as heatwaves, droughts and

floods; damaging tropical cyclones; sea level rise; salinity intrusion; and ocean

acidification.

These drivers may hamper Myanmar's capacity to achieve inclusive economic

and social development as outlined in its plans and constitution. For example, some

85percent of the rural population relies on climate-sensitive sectors for their livelihoods,

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

and millions of people are concentrated in regions exposed to the impacts of climate

change, including the Delta and Coastal Regions. Sea level rise poses significant

challenges to coastal communities and livelihood assets including coastal ecosystem and

ecosystem services. It is also evident that climate change would reduce rice yield;

sustaining food production and maintaining food security is one of the key consequences

of climate change that the whole Asia region will face.

The economic impacts of climate change are significant and will likely result in a

big setback to national GDP. For example, the estimated cost of loss and damage after

Cyclone Nargis in 2008 was more than US$4 billion (World Bank2015b). The estimated

cost of the damage from floods and landslides in July–August 2015 was US$1.51 billion;

flood damaged 20 percent of the country's cultivated areas, equivalent to 4.2 percent of

agricultural GDP (World Bank 2015a). Economic growth in 2015-2016 is at 7 percent;

about 1.5 percentage points lower than the last two years. Table 5outlines the main

implications of climate change in Myanmar's development sectors, as reported by

national and sub-national stakeholders consulted during the strategy formulation

process.

Table 5: Climate change impacts in Myanmar

Climate

hazard

Direct impacts

Vulnerable region

Drought



Crop failure and low yields

 Severe water shortages, including

limited consumable water and

decreased river flows

 Decline of worker's productivity

Rain-shadow (arid and

semi-arid) central belt

 Central Dry Zone

Cyclone/

strong winds

 Crop, landand infrastructure

damage

 Damage to coastal ecosystem and

ecosystem services

 Loss of lives and livelihoods

 Saline intrusion in agriculture

fields

 Coastal areas, mainly:

 Rakhine

 Ayeyarwady Delta

 Mon

Intense rains  Flashfloods  Northern Hilly Region

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Climate

hazard

Direct impacts

Vulnerable region



Intense surface runoff and soil

erosion

 Crop damage

 Enhanced problems during La Niña

due to excessive water levels



Central Dry Zone

 Mountainous and hilly

areas in Kayin, Kachin,

Shan, Mon and Chin

 Ayeyarwady river basin

 Coastal areas

Flood/storm

surge



River floods; flash floods; urban

flooding

 Damage to coastal ecosystem and

ecosystem services

 Severe inundation of land

 Damage of crop, land and

infrastructure



Upper reaches of river

systems

 Coastal areas

 Low-lying areas along

major river systems (such

as the Ayeyarwady Delta)

Extreme high

temperature



Heatwaves and urban heat island

effect



Reduced water availability



Arid and semi-arid

central belt



Central Dry Zone

Sealevel rise  Cultivated lands and villages

inundated with seawater

 Loss of land, infrastructure and

coastal habitats

 Saltwater intrusion and coastal

erosion

 Coastal areas,

particularly:

 Rakhine

 Ayeyarwady

Source: Sub-national consultations (adapted from MONREC2012b)

Although the adverse impacts of climate change will affect economic growth,

social development and environmental sustainability, and inopportune development

trajectory particularly when it is energy and resource intensive development, could

increase both the degradation of natural resources and GHG emissions. For example, in

2000, Myanmar's industrial and construction sectors contributed 10 percent of the

country's GHG emissions (INC 2012). If annual coal production increases as projected

from an estimated 2.7 million tons in 2016 to 5.6 million tons by 2030, GHG emissions

will soar (GoM 2014).

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Climate change will also affect social development, including human health,

wellbeing and education. Already vulnerable communities and marginalised regions will

feel the impacts first. Myanmar must therefore respond to climate change, before it

undermines efforts aimed at balanced and inclusive development.

In the next sections, the vulnerability of priority sector and development

implications are summarized and areas where Myanmar needs to take action to build

resilience and maximise opportunities for low-carbon development identified.

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Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

10 Key Findings of Township Level Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments by 2050

In 2016 and 2017 three detailed vulnerability assessments were conducted in townships of the

Delta, Dry Zone and Mountain regions, respectively Labutta (Ayeyawaddy Region); Pakokku

(Magway Division) and Hakha (Chin State). Though largely different between them, the following

key highlights are interesting case-studies that describe the current and projected impact of

climate change on Townships, and call for urgent action at sub-national level (

Horton

et al.,

2017).

1. Climate change in the last decades has already had an impact on productive sectors,

especially agriculture, and increased the risks of disasters, affecting societies and accelerating

migration patterns in Labutta, Pakokku and Hakha.

2. Township administrations will need to plan for projected changes that include a significant

increase in both mean temperature and more hot days, shortening of the rainy season,

likelihood of intensified rain during the wet season. These factors may result in heightened

intensity of tropical storms and cyclones, and increased likelihood of floods. Sea is expected to

raise up to 41cm by 2050 in Labutta, thus increasing salinization effects and risks of inundation.

3. Social and economic conditions in general unveil an insufficiently diverse economy, very

climate-sensitive. Agriculture em

ploys many people yet it is highly exposed to loss of

productivity due to climate change. Migrations trends are observed, fuelled by reduced

productivity. Because of lack of vocational trainings and technical skills, people migrating may

struggle to secure adequate employment abroad or in larger Myanmar cities.

4. Eco-system services largely benefit communities. However, trends of degradation from over-

exploitation and the combined effects of changes in climate result in the progressive loss of

these services, and increased risks of hazards. In Labutta, the degradation of mangroves exposes

people to storm-surges, erosion because of sea-level rise. Deforestation effects coupled with

more intense rains now and in the future in Hakha, for instance, include a very high risk of

landslides.

5. Infrastructure and connectivity are not sufficiently resilient to strong storms, heavy rains,

cyclones and floods, and spatial planning is not climate-risk adequate. As a result more people

will be at risk and assets could be lost.

6. The spatial structure, services and functions of the townships studied will be deeply altered by

changes in climate. This will impact local development.

7. In this context women are, and further will be, disproportionately affected by climate change

as they already suffer from lower wages and lack of opportunities.

8. In a business as usual scenario, assuming no or little adaptation, by 2050 the townships

studied will seriously struggle to provide for their inhabitants and protect them from increased

risks of disasters. This is particularly the case of Labutta.

9. Townships must strive to achieve a scenario in which resilience is built and development is

enabled before 2050. This may be possible by achieving the following outcomes: 1) Healthy eco-

systems that continue to provide for people; 2) A diversified economy with smart agriculture and

new opportunities; 3) A resilient infrastructure that protect people, and enable development.

10. Townships will need to plan ahead for this to happen, and obtain the support of District,

Regional, National and International actors to achieve the resilience scenario.

The case-studies demonstrate that action is required, urgently, at sub-national level.

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3.1 Agriculture, fisheries and livestock

Significance

Myanmar's agriculture, fisheries and livestock sectors play a key role in

supporting economic growth, local livelihoods and food security. The agriculture sector

is the second-largest contributor to GDP. It employs a large proportion of the population

(61 percent of labour force) and is dominated by small-scale landholders (MOALI 2014).

Within the agriculture sector, rice is the predominant crop, covering almost two-thirds of

cultivated land. Beans and pulses, both leading export crops, cover one-third of the total

cultivated area. Other crops include oilseeds, vegetables, chillies, maize, cotton, rubber,

sugarcane and tropical fruit.

Fisheries — particularly small-scale ones, are a crucial source of livelihood and

income for millions of people. They also play an important role in socio-economic

development. Fishery contributes about ten percent to GDP and employs more than five

percent of total population. Myanmar's open water— its lakes, rivers and the Ayeyarwady

delta, has considerable potential for aquaculture development. There are also significant

marine fishery resources along Myanmar's more than 1,900 km coastline and 380,000

hectares of mangroves (FAO 2003).

Livestock — mostly cattle, buffalo, pigs and poultry, contributes to most

households' income and constitute a sizable portion of household capital. Most livestock

is raised using backyard methods, although there is some commercial production near

largecities. Although the growth in most livestock production appears to have stagnated

in the past decade, the number of poultry birds has tripled due to the spread of

commercial production techniques in peri-urban areas (UNDP 2011).

At national level, the country produces surplus food and exports some 1.8 million

metric tons (MT), contributing around 25 percent of export earnings although eographic

differences result in localised food shortages. Chin and Mandalay are rice-deficit regions

and net importers, due to harsh weather conditions, remoteness and poor access to

appropriate technology. The rural poor have inadequate access to food, nutrition and

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essential non-food items, and micronutrient deficiencies account for 4–6 percent of all

deaths under five (MOALI 2015).

The agriculture sector is affected by rainfall patterns: 48 percentof rice cultivation

is in the favourable, rain-fed lowlands and 32 percent is in unfavourable, rain-fed land.

The country has increased its irrigated area from 12 to 20 percent over the last two

decades, making more land favourable for cultivation (MOALI 2015). It has also

introduced some advanced technologies, such as summer rice production, wetland

cultivation and systematic fertiliser use.

While the sector is vulnerable to climate change, it emits about 18 percent of

GHGs, a trend that is increasing with more agricultural land and fertiliser use. Among

domesticated livestock, ruminant animals such as cattle and buffalos are responsible for

about 13 percent of GHG emissions (INC 2012).

Impacts of current climate and future changes

The IPCC AR5 revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change will probably

affect agriculture in Southeast Asia in the following ways:

(a) More frequent droughts will result in crop failure in rain-fed agricultural

areas, increase the demand for irrigation and put severe strain on water and

land resources

(b) Increased occurrence of intense rains will lead to extreme floods which will

result in higher yield losses from crop damage and affect water quality and

supply

with greater potential for spikelet sterility (such as infertile rice seeds), insect

pests and rodents, which in turn will reduce yields

(d) Changes in temperature, moisture and carbon dioxide concentrations will

cause negative impacts on rice crop growth pattern and productivity, and

(e) The increased rice and wheat production associated with CO2 fertilisation

will be offset by reductions in yields from temperature and/or moisture

changes.

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Almost all these changes are evident in Myanmar, where people—particularly

poor and smallholder farmers, are feeling the negative impacts through loss of

agricultural productivity that. Both slow onset phenomena, such as temperature

increases, changes in precipitation, sea level rise and salinity intrusion, and rapid onset

events, such as cyclone and storm surges, droughts and floods, are adversely affecting

agriculture, fisheries and livestock sectors. For example, when Cyclone Nargis damaged

four million hectares of rice — 57 percent of the country's total production — in 2008,

there was negative growth in agricultural production (MOALI 2015; ADB 2013).

Climatic stressors and adverse impacts vary across regions. Ayeyarwady Delta

and Costal Zone and Central Dry Zone are the most impacted. For example, excessive

sedimentation in Rakhine damaged rice seedlings and reduced harvests in 2010,resulting

in around US$ 1.64 million in damages (GoM 2015a). Flooding caused by heavy rain in

Ayeyarwady, Bago, Mon and Rakhine resulted in loss of around 1.7 million tonnes of rice

in July to October 2011. Tidal surges rendered Sittwe, Pauktaw and Myebon vulnerable

in 2013. Heavy rainfall leading to flooding and damages crops triggered heavy flooding in

the Dry Zone that caused massive losses in the agriculture sector and other sectors.

The stakeholder consultations in Bago and Kayin revealed that frequent flood

and storm surges have affected both crops and livestock. In the Hilly Zones, landslides

are causing the degradation of agriculture land. The stakeholders who were consulted in

Ayeyarwady said that every two years, around two million hectares of land are flooded

and 3.25 million hectares are moderately inundated. They also revealed that in 2008,

Cyclone Nargis greatly affected Nga Pu Taw, Phyar Pone, Bokalay, Kyaik Latt, Day Da

Yae, La Putta and Mawlamyaing Kyun Township, causing human losses and damage to

crops, livestock and fisheries. According to the stakeholders who were consulted in

Mandalay, extreme drought and flooding in the Central Dry Zone has caused a feed

shortage for livestock, and productivity has declined as a result. Vulnerability

Assessments to Climate Change conducted in Townships such as Pakokku demonstrated

that, failing to address the consequences of climate change on agriculture will drastically

reduce the ability of people to live out of agriculture by 2050 (Fee et al., 2016)

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Current policy and practices; targets and challenges

Few agricultural policies directly relate to climate change. But, although they

tend to focus on increasing productivity for food security, economic growth and rural

development, they indirectly encompass mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate

change, in that they aim to improve Myanmar's agriculture sector by modernising

farming practices, promoting commercial farming and liberalising investment in the

sector. The 2016 Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy focuses on adapting crop varieties

and corresponding farming practices and managing the risk of disaster and loss of crops

and income.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation (MOALI) carries out some

climate-change related measures, such as adjusting cropping systems, using stress-

resistant plant varieties and maximising water use and efficiency. Due to these efforts

and farmers' responses to climate change, crop diversification and using stress-resistant

varieties are common. The most extensively driven adaptation and mitigation strategies

are hybrid rice production technology; using GAP for rice production, including a

modified system of rice intensification; and alternate wetting and drying irrigation

technique. Others include planting drought-resistant varieties in the Dry Zone and

organic vegetable farming and orchards. Farmers are also practicing some adaptation

and mitigation measures based on their indigenous knowledge.

MOALI has set its target to increase rice production to at least 18.64 million

metric tonnes (MT) in 2016-2017; 60 percent for local consumption and 40 percent for

international trade. It has set a target to increase milled rice production from 1.315m MT

in 2015 to 10.13 m MT for local consumption and at least 6 m MT for international trade

by 2030 (MOALI 2015). To meet this target, they will maintain 7.70 m hectares of rice

crops, harvesting an annual average yield of at least 4.2 MT per hectare, per cropping

season. MOALI has recognised that it needs to sustain large infrastructure investments

and further boost exports into the longterm by targeting the modest level of milled rice

exports. The sustainable intensification of rice production through efficient and effective

natural resource management methodologies for higher rice productivity and

profitability is the cornerstone for achieving this aim.

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It is evident that climate change poses a serious threat to livelihood security and

aggravates risks and vulnerabilities in the agriculture sector through the increased

frequency of natural disasters and extreme weather events such as erratic rainfall,

flooding and drought, especially in the Ayeyarwady Delta, Coastal and Central Dry Zones.

The long-term effects of slow-onset climate change phenomena will also have serious

impacts on agriculture and food security, requiring substantive adaptation of agricultural

systems over time. The agriculture sector holds significant potential to mitigate climate

change by reducing GHG emissions and enhancing agricultural sequestration.

Required response

The agriculture, fisheries and livestock sectors play an import role in Myanmar's

socioeconomic development. They make significant contributions to GDP, employment,

food security, nutrition and poverty alleviation. Climate-resilient responses that include

promoting resource-efficient and low-carbon practices will help maintain food and

livelihood security, economic growth and social development.In line with the policy

recommendations established by the Myanmar Climate Change Policy, food security

must be ensured by means of mantaining growth and productivity of food and water

systems. To this end, by 2030 Myanmar needs to have climate-smart agriculture,

fisheries and livestock systems that will maintain productivity and growth and support

the livelihoods of dependent communities and households

To adopt climate-smart agricultural practices that can withstand changes in

climate and contribute to the reduction of GHG emissions, Myanmar will need to apply

new technologies, modify existing ones, revise relevant laws and policies to integrate

climate change and enhance capacity to access and use finance and technologies. Early

actions on climate change would allow the country to prepare for near- and long-term

agricultural adaptation and mitigation action and link these with national food and

livelihood security and nutrition policies.

The stakeholder consultations reconfirmed the need for Myanmar to integrate

climate change into policies, plans and extension systems. To do this, it will need to:

(a) Strengthen the capacity of actors;

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(b) Strategise actions on climate-smart farming systems;

households;

(d) Increase skilled human resources;

(e) Strengthen institutional coordination mechanisms;

(f) Increase climate investment;

(g) Strengthen the financing framework for climate-smart agriculture, livestock

and fisheries;

(h) Focus on the vulnerable, landless, women and marginalised groups in

climate-sensitive geographic areas;

(i) Access climate-resilient technologies and good practice, low-emission

farming practices; and

(j) Encourage multi-stakeholder partnerships for technology transfer and

implementation of efficient technologies.

The set of proposed outcomes for the agriculture, fisheries and livestock

sectorsare fully aligned with the country's 2016 Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy, NAPA

priorities and INDC.

3.2 Environment and natural resources

Significance

A healthy environment, the availability and quality of natural resources and a

rich biodiversity are key determinants of the performance in the primary economic

sectors and major components of life-supporting systems. Myanmar's eight main types

of ecosystem — forests; mountains; dry and sub-humid lands; estuarine mangroves;

inland fresh water; grasslands; marine and coastalareas; and small islands — present a

rich ecological diversity and habitats for 11,800 plants, 251 mammals, 1,056 birds, 293

reptiles, 139 amphibians and 775 fish species. These ecosystems also support important

ecological functions, such as sequestering carbon and regulating microclimates (NBSAP

2011).

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About 45 percent of Myanmar's land comprises various types of fores, including:

tidal, beach and dune and swamp forests; tropical evergreen; mixed deciduous; dry

forests; deciduous dipterocarp; and hill and temperate evergreen forests. More than 70

percent of the population depend directly or indirectly on forest resources, which

contribute 1 percent to GDP. Timber makes up about 10 percent of Myanmar's exports.

Rural populations depend heavily on forests and forest products for their livelihoods and

basic needs.

Although the sector supports a large number of the population, annual GHG

emissions are about 198 million tonnes CO2e from deforestation, and 844,000 tonnes

from forest degradation. Forest fires emit about 40 million tonnes CO2e a year. But the

sector also presents huge potential to sequester carbon through forest enhancement,

conservation and sustainable management. There is an urgent need to invest in such

programmes as unplanned development will jeopardise Myanmar's current net GHG sink

status. Reforesting and restoring 50 percent of Myanmar's degraded forests using REDD+

could sequester about 1,910 million tonnes CO

The country has large freshwater and marine resources. Its coastline exceeds

2,800 km and it has 8.2 million hectares of inland water bodies and 0.5 million hectares

of swamps (NBSAP 2011). Eight principle river basins — Chindwin, Upper and Lower

Ayeyarwady, Sittaung, Thanlwin and Mekong rivers, as well as rivers in Rakhine state and

Taninthayi division — comprise about 737,800 km². There is a potential water resource

volume of about 1,082 km³ for surface water and 495 km³ for groundwater. About 90

percent of water useis agricultural; industrial and domestic use represents 10 percent. In

the Central Dry Zone, freshwater resources for domestic, industrial and agricultural use

are typically rain fed and people rely on reservoirs, rivers and groundwater to maintain

their supply.

Coastal and marine ecosystems are the least disturbed. Myanmar's extensive

coastline supports essential ecological functions and habitats as spawning, nursery and

feeding grounds for fish, prawns and other aquatic fauna and flora of economic

importance. Mangrove is one of the most widespread habitats in coastal regions,

particularly near estuaries. Rakhine and Taninthayi have some of the most extensive

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areas of mangrove; the Ayeyarwady Delta also supports significant mangrove areas

(Leimgruber

et al.

2005).

Impacts of current climate and future changes

Prevailing climate influences the status and quality of natural resources,

ecosystems and biodiversity. As such, and any changes in climatic conditions directly

affects their functions. Myanmar is already experiencing changes in climate, and has

seenthe impact of slow and rapid onset climatic phenomena on natural resources and

the environment. For example, Cyclone Mala destroyed 10 percent of reserve forest in

2006 and heavys rain in 2007 destroyed trees along streams. Future changes in climate

are likely to exacerbate the observed impacts of current threats on natural resources,

ecosystems, ecosystem services and biodiversity. Intense heat, decreased rainfall and

increased in salinity will degrade, damage and convert forest areas; and these changes in

forest distribution and the composition of forests will adversely affect ecosystem services

and biodiversity.

Highly variable and reduced rainfall patterns are expected to worsen an already

water-stressed environment. In the north, the Mizoram-Manipur-Kachin rainforests are

expected to be climatically less stable than the Ayeyarwady moist deciduous forests and

the Northern Triangle sub-tropical forests. The predicted increase in high and extreme

day temperatures and drought will increase evapotranspiration from the treecanopy,

causing increased moisture stress. This will probably increase the frequency of forest

fires in the Central Dry Zone and northern regions. The increase in temperature will

cause a shift in species' range and migration patterns, with notable changes in the

flowering and fruiting seasons and seed germination. In some areas, climate-induced

succession will result in forest conversion to less productive grasslands. Structural and

functional changes in Myanmar's forests will also affect the biogeochemical levels

through e.g. nitrogen and carbon cycles, which will have a cyclical impact on the climate

system.

Climate change will induce changes to hydrological systems and cycles affecting

water quality, quantity and accessibility. The rate of snow and glacial melt is expected to

increase, resulting in changing river flows and unpredictable flooding events. With the

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late onset and early withdrawal of the monsoon period, large quantities of rain will fall

over shorter periods, leading to floods, contamination of water resources, erosion and

limited replenishment of waterways. Changes in river flow and discharge will increase

the risk of flash floods and decrease ground water recharge, and vast areas of lowland

regions will be regularly inundated. The predicted increase in intense rain events,

combined with a reduction in vegetation cover, will also result in decreased rainfall

infiltration.

At the same time, more drought events will increase pressure on groundwater

use to expand irrigated agriculture. IPCC AR5 projected that reduced dry season flows,

combined with sea level rise willincrease saltwater intrusion in Myanmar's deltas

(Hamilton 2010; Dudgeon 2012). Ground water supplies will be particularly vulnerable to

saline intrusion during the dry season because of low water volumes in river systems.

The Central Dry Zone receives about one-third of annual precipitation and the

shift to perennially lower rainfalls will probably have devastating effects there. River

water pumping projects will also face challenges, as they are dependent on precipitation.

Ground water availability is also subject to replenishment through precipitation. The

expected increase in demand for water resources, combined with lower replenishment

rates in reservoirs, rivers and groundwater sources due to a changing climate, will

probably lead to regular freshwater shortages, with devastating effects for the people of

the Central Dry Zone.

The sub-national consultations revealed that extreme flooding and landslides in

hilly areas are causing the degradation of forest and loss of biodiversity. Stakeholders in

Mandalay said that extreme drought in the Dry Zone is causing the loss of agro-

biodiversity and an increase in pest and diseases, including the spread of invasive

species. Consultations also revealed that extreme temperatures in the Dry Zone are

leading to an increased incidence of forest fire. Stakeholders in Rakhine noticed that sea

level rise and other disasters such as cyclones resulted in saltwater intrusion and

inundation, which in turn affected marine and coastal biodiversity, including in the

mangroves. They further shared that large areas of mangroves are destroyed by

cyclones.

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Current policy, practice, targets and challenges

Myanmar has a well-developed set of general environmental strategies and

objectives with strong visions for better environment and sustainable development.

Since 1990s, it has developed its environmental policies with the National Environment

Policy (1994), the Forest Policy (1995), Agenda 21 (1997), the National Code of Practice

for Forest Harvesting (2000), the National Sustainable Development Strategy (2009), the

National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (2011), the Environmental Conservation

Law (2012) and the National Water Policy (2014). The National Environmental Policy

(2018) does recognize that Myanmar's dependence on its natural capital is under

pressure and faces extreme threats from climate change. Because the country is

embarking on a new era of industrialisation, urbanisation and economic development,

the NEP must provide long-term guidance for government, civil society, the private

sector and development partners on achieving environmental protection and sustainable

development objectives in Myanmar, by placing environmental considerations at the

centre of efforts to promote economic and social development, reduce poverty, and

mitigate and adapt to climate change and natural disasters.

The government is also preparing its first national and city-level waste

management strategy, which will include aspects related to climate change. These

policies cover broadly important environmental areas and provide general objectives.

Other ministries have also developed many strategies for general development,

transport, tourism and agriculture that have significant environmental aspects.

The Forest Policy emphasises the protection of soils, water catchment,

ecosystems, biodiversity, genetic resources, scenic reserves and national heritage sites.

Fostering sustainable forest management will lead to tangible and intangible benefits for

the present and future generations. The policy aims for 30 percent of the total land area

to bereserved forest; and 10 percent to beprotected area systems. The National Water

Policy is the first integrated policy for watersheds, rivers, lakes, reservoirs, groundwater

aquifers and coastal and marine waters. Its vision is to become a water-efficient nation

based on integrated water resource management by 2020.

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It is clear that the quality of environment and environmental resources is

influenced by climate change and non-climate stressors as well as development

activities implemented by different actors at different levels. Population growth,

urbanisation and a growing industrial sector will increase demand forwater and pose

serious challenges to water security. Safe drinking water, basic sanitation and other

domestic needs continue to be a problem in many areas. Myanmar also needs to

consider the interrelation ofwater, food and energy security, as food and energy

production both large impact on the country's water resources.

The Environmental Conservation Law provides the general legal framework for

environmental conservation in Myanmar and the role of the MONREC's Environmental

Conservation Department (ECD) (ECL 2012). In addition to the policy principles

mandated by the ECL and by the NEP, there is need for more specific action to address

the adverse impacts of climate change on environmental and natural resource

management and harness co-benefits.

Required response

Water, land, forest, marine, mineral and other natural resources play a significant

role in maintaining rural livelihoods and economic earnings. The impacts of climate

change, economic growth and modern lifestyles all pose athreat to sustainable natural

resource use. Myanmar has many opportunities to achieve socioeconomic development

without compromising the quality of the environment and natural resources. In line with

the policy recommendations by the MCCP, and the principles of the NEP, there is need to

promote sustainable natural resource management in the context of climate change,

thus to ensure that the ecosystem remains healthy and continue to provide benefits for

the present and future generations, while regenerating itself adequately. Therefore, by

2030, Myanmar aspires to manage its natural resources to enhance the resilience of its

biodiversity and ecosystem services that support social and economic development and

to deliver carbon sequestration

Action in the environment and natural resource

management will also help other climate-vulnerable sectors by reducing disaster risks

and giving opportunities to avoid GHG emissions.

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Addressing issues related to the environment and natural resources are complex

and become more challenging without specific policies, guidelines and tools to integrate

climate change in the design and implementation of big development and infrastructure

projects. Informed decision making also requires good-quality, regularly updated

baseline data. Myanmar must improve its monitoring of emissions, the state of the

environment, environmentally significant activities and specific regional and local

objectives. The environmental administration also needs to build capacity at central and

regional levels.

The stakeholder consultations reconfirm and elaborate several action areas,

including:

(a) Formulating policies, strengthening regulations and building institutional

capacity to control ecosystem degradation and environmental deterioration

in the context of climate change

(b) Capitalising on the potential to reduce forest carbon emissions; enhance and

sustainably manage its forest carbon stocks; and conserve, restore and

protect fragile, threatened and crucial natural resources and ecosystems

generating opportunities, value addition and market linkages targeting

landless, poor and marginalised forest-dependent communities

(d) Strengthening local, regional, national and international networks to

collaborate in the implementation of climate change adaptation and

mitigation priorities.

3.3 Energy, transport and industry

Significance

The energy, transport and industry sectors have largely been the defining factor

of economic growth and will continue in this role for decades to come, supporting the

process of economic transformation. Myanmar's GDP has continued to develop at a

sustained rate of 6-8 percent in the last years, peaking with 8.70 percent expansion in

2014 compared to 2013, according to the Central Bank of Myanmar and international

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organisations (World Bank 2016). The industry sector contributes about 30 percent to

GDP; the service sector 36 percent and manufacturing 12 percent (ADB 2012 and 2015).

The expansion of these sectors carries significant mitigation and resilience implications

in the context of climate change.

About 75 percent of Myanmar's electricity is generated through hydro electricity;

20 percent with natural gas, 3 percent with coal and 2 percent with other sources

(MOEPE 2013). But only about 30 percent of the population has access to electricity, and

per capita electricity consumption is 180 kilowatts per hour. According to the 2014

National Energy Policy, the electricity sector should expand rapidly over the next decade,

with a target of 45 percent electrification by 2020-2021 and 60 percent by 2025-2026. In

other words, millions of households will be connected to grid electricity by 2030.

Myanmar exports a large proportion of its natural gas to other countries in the region. It

must now increase its energy generation to satisfy demand from industrialisation,

urbanisation and other productive processes. At the same time, it still needs to secure

foreign revenues through export. Although the potential for renewables is a unique

opportunity for Myanmar pursue low-carbon development, the variability of rainfall

patterns present a challenge for the stable delivery of energy from hydro sources.

The country's capacity to harness its full energy potential and improve energy

access will determine its ability to achieve its SDGs. A large part of the country's energy

production is supplied by biomass, including fuel wood, which 81 percent of households

use (GoM 2015b), charcoal and agricultural residues. But Myanmar is rich in natural and

renewable energy sources, and this will support it future growth: it has the potential to

produce around 100,000 megawatts through hydropower and its natural gas exportsare a

key driver of current growth (World Bank 2014). Power, oil and gas attract a large share

of FDI in Myanmar as demand for energy increases. Interestingly, there is still a lot of

untapped potential in energy generation, mostly from hydropower. There is a need to

increase coverage, while maintaining important sources of foreign revenues through

energy exports which account for a large share of the national GDP.

The transport sector is also expanding, with demand increasing alongside

economic growth. It is predicted to grow further for the next 13 years. Since 1988, the

country has focused on expanding access particularly for road transport along its main

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economic corridors at national and international levels. This involves reinforcing the

transport axis along the supra-regional Greater Mekong Sub-Region network and the

aligments of the Pan-Asian highways, with urban hubs along the corridors. In immediate

terms, the number of vehicles in Myanmar has increased exponentially, from less than

one million registered vehicles in 2004 to almost four million in 2012.

This growth will continue as economic capacities of households increase and the

productive sector diversifies. This implies two main challenges in the context of climate

change. The country will need to increase transport infrastructure and services to boost

economic activities while containing emissions and mitigating environmental impacts. It

will have to build crucial infrastructure with a firm approach to prevent and mitigate the

impact of ever-more severe natural hazards. In this context, it will be important to

develop low-cost, low-emission public transportation systems in urban areas, such as

underground trains and elevated railways to accommodate rapid urbanisation. There is

also a need to consider methods to reduce air travel between cities — for example, with

high-speed trains between Yangon and Nay Pyi Taw.

Although agriculture still makes up a large part of Myanmar's GDP, it has been

declining and the industrial sector is growing fast, particularly manufacturing, tourism,

telecommunications and construction. This growth has been boosted by national and

international investment, societal changes in the workforce with young people attracted

to jobs in industry and services and urbanisation. The sector has the largest potential for

growth and employment over the next years. Both Yangon and Mandalay are expanding

their capacity for industrial zones, attracting workforce and economic prospects. In a

context of climate change, this progressive shift towards a tertiary economy will possibly

increase emissions as industrial outputs and energy consumption both rise. And in the

immediate and mid-terms, increased hazards may have an impact on the cost and

availability of materials, disruption of work and production cycles and productivity loss.

Impacts of current climate and future changes

The energy, transport and industry sectors are at the same time exposed to the

negative effects of the changing climate and have the potential to negatively affect

Myanmar's net GHG sink status (INC 2012).

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The resilience of these crucial sectors will be key determinant to Myanmar's

ability to sustain economic development. The recurrent destruction of key transport

infrastructure from cyclones, severe storms and floods,which are due to increase in the

next decades,are a threat to the country's development objectives. An additional 1-2˚C

increase by 2040 — with a global scenario of reduced emissions by 2030 — will result in

more intense tropical storms and cyclones and abnormal rainfall in the rainy seasons,

which will have an impact on the main and secondary transport infrastructures. As a

result, the logistics required for trade and industrial production may come to a halt for

protracted periods. This would impact not only at national level, but also along the

supra-national development corridors, possibly decreasing the competitiveness of the

hubs along the corridors in Myanmar. If the projections of up to 40 cm rise in sea level

materialise, this would impact on coastal areas and the delta, affecting connectivity to

and from regional hubs, such as Pathein.

Prices may also depend on variations in temperature and rainfall, with effects

along the supply chain that could result, on higher prices for the commodity-based

industries that involve food production as basic ingredients become more difficult to

grow or scarcer. This could make Myanmar's industry less attractive on a regional scale,

compared to other, more prepared countries. Ultimately, this may result in a reduced

capacity to absorb workforce.

The ability to produce and distribute energy will also be a key component of

energy security that may be affected by climate change. Heat waves could affect power

generation and distribution as the number of very hot days rise; the generation of

hydropower — a main source of renewable energy and revenues for the country, may

also suffer from prolonged droughts periods, erratic and intense rainfall. Although it is

difficult to establish a precise cause and eventchain without specialised studies applied

to specific sites, rains could trigger large-scale erosion, resulting in siltation and

sedimentation of waterways and dams. This will reduce the water storage capacity of

dams and cause structural damages, increased maintenance and operational costs.

Myanmar will need to increase the security of power plants, considering the shorter

return periods for hazards, related to more intense storms and floods. A thorough

resilience building for these intertwined sectors will be a crucial component Myanmar's

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climate responsiveness and its ability to sustain development. Also, large infrastructure

and industrial facilities containing hazardous materials such as oil and gas may cause

secondary risks after natural disasters, such as toxic spillage. The additional nature of

this risk highlights the need to ensure that we take climate-related hazards into

consideration when building or maintaining infrastructure and industrial facilities.

In terms of mitigation potential, Myanmar's Initial National Communication (INC)

reported in 2012, with a baseline from 2000, that the energy, transport and industry

sectors contributed 68 percent of total GHG emissions. The breakdown is: 10 percent

from the industry and construction sectors; 28 percent from transport; and the rest from

the energy industry sector (INC, 2012). With the development of the last 15 years, it is

reasonable to think that this balance may have shifted. In their quest for energy security

to sustain development overtime, the government may need to increase other sources

with a high carbon footprint, such as coal. Although these plans are not confirmed, the

country faces the challenge of delivering a stable and secure source of energy despite

the changes in climate and the expected periods of extended drought.

Myanmar should and could engage in a low-carbon energy pathway by

maximising renewable energy production from hydro and solar sources for the electricity

grid that are necessary for critical industry and by seeking alternative ways to increase

access to electricity both off-grid or with a mix of renewables. Both the private sector

and the government have an interest in working for energy efficiency to reduce waste

atthe consumption end of energy at residential and industrial levels, increase availability,

contain prices and reduce emissions.

The need to increase transport capacities must be accompanied by sustainable

practices: at urban level, this will mean working on integrated spatial strategic plans to

reduce transportcosts. At regional and national levels, it will entail rationalising the road

transport system, in particular. The industrial sector will need to increase its adherence

to principles of environmental management with co-benefits in reduced carbon

generation — for example, energy efficiency, reduction of waste generation, better waste

treatment, and efficient water and natural resource use.

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Myanmar has a unique richness of natural resources that may boost its economic

development, but only if they are managed adequately. The primary concern is

maintaining a safe capacity for replenishment for the current and future generations. As

the economy grows, the expansion of the energy, transport and industry sectors will lead

to extreme environmental stress unless this is planned and managed carefully. The need

to maximise the use of renewables on and off grid to ensure a manageable impact on

the environment is paramount. Laying down large infrastructure at national, regional

and local scale must take into account the impact on the country's natural capital and

any potential depletion of eco-system services. Industrial development must also

incorporate a strong stand for the sustainable use of natural resources in the whole

production cycle, through a mix of awareness, advocacy and regulations measures.

Stakeholder consultations provided several examples of climate change impact in

the energy, industry and transport sectors. In Rakhine and Pathein, cyclone, flooding and

other disaster events had damaged infrastructure and roads, affecting the industry and

transport sectors. In Rakhine, almost one-third of the fishery industry is negatively

impacted, with saltwater intrusion and sea level making the fisher communities more

vulnerable. In Kachin, excessive flooding is affecting hydropower generation and having

a negative impact on the transport sector.

Current policy,practices,targets and challenges

Although the sectors are regulated by an extensive and rapidly evolving

regulatory framework, it is not explicit on the relatively new challenges posed by climate

change. However, their respective policy directions incorporate, to different degrees and

extent, some level of awareness on the need to develop in a sustainable manner, which

has relevant co-benefits to making Myanmar resilient to climate change. The overall

challenge across sectoral policy remains to keep a balance between the needs to pursue

energy production and distribution; Increase transport access; traffic capacity and

industrial productivity; and to ensure sustainability in undertaking these actions. In other

words, there is a need to do it right the first time.

Energy policy directions for Myanmar focus on the need for energy security,

affordability, access, poverty benefits, well being and foreign revenue generation.

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Although climate change is not prominent in the policy so far, there are considerations

related to carbon emissions — for example, in the draft Energy Master Plan. There is a

growing concern — confirmed by the sub-national consultations undertaken when

developing the Myanmar Climate Change Policy, Strategy and Master Plan— that

Maynmar needs to prioritise the production of energy from renewable sources. That said,

the environmental and social impacts of large dams remainthe highest concern, so the

focus should be on mid-sized to small hydropower generation projects. A number of

national policies focus on energy efficiency and conservation, with the evident co-

benefits of reducing prices and so increasing inclusiveness of access; reducing carbon

emissions from fugitive and wasted energy use; and reducing the overall impact on

natural resources.

Myanmar's Ministry of Industry developed the National Energy Efficiency and

Conservation Policy, Strategy and Roadmap in February 2016 and it has been approved

by the Cabinet. The policy's objective is to reduce the use of energy 12 percent by 2020,

16 percent by 2025 and 20 percent by 2030 against the baseline year 2012 by reducing

energy use and resulting GHG emissions. However, the policy environment is highly

dynamics and changes may be expected: following the policy recommendations of the

Myanmar Climate Change Policy (MCCP) it is essential that sustainable and renewable

energy is prioritized in policies and actions.

As energy is the world's largest single GHG source, main streaming climate

change considerations in this policy environment will be key to reaching the overall

strategy ambition. The regulatory framework for transport is also evolving, with a focus

on improved and extended public transport systems and infrastructure, particularly for

roads. Myanmar is directing its efforts at improved national and international transport

systems, environmental improvement and reduced emissions. There is evidence of

attempts to contain emissions through e.g. incentives for electric cars. However,the

regulatory environment for transport could further consider climate resilience to long-

term changes in the climate, in addition to reducing GHG emissions, to ensure viability of

the sector overtime.

The policy framework for industry is largely regulated, although most of the legal

instruments such as the 1914 Companies Act are dated. This limits any considerations

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about climate change, the notable exception is the 2012 Environmental Conservation

Law, to which all investors must abide. The overall focus of policy directionis on: SME

development; support for manufacturing and processing; skills development; and

seeking increased FDI for economic development. In Myanmar's drive towards creating

an enabling environment for increased FDI it plans to shift to an industry-based

economy by 2030. However it is important that small, medium and large-scale industry

should not give way to unsustainable practices; the country should operate in the

context of adhesion to climate change global commitments and national adaptation

requirements.

Myanmar launched its new Environmental Impact Assessment procedures in

December 2015. This is considered an important step forward. Myanmar was also

admitted as a candidate to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative in July 2014.

The country's adherence to the initiative is a signal of its desire to abide by high

international standards of transparency for revenues deriving fromoil, gas and mining

activities. The national government, the private sector and all other actors in these

sectors must now ensure that this instrument is effective.

Required response

Although these sectors are vital for Myanmar's socioeconomic development, they

are also potentially so demanding on environmental capital in the context of climate

change that keeping the balance between enhancing these sectors and protecting the

environment will be a key area for action over the next 13 years. This need is explicitely

recognized by the NEP as well as by the Myanmar Climate Change Policy. In alignment

with the policy recommendations and principles of both policies, the MCCS identifies

priorities to ensure that by 2030, the country would like to achieve resilient and low-

carbon energy, transport and industrial systems to sustainably support its socioeconomic

development goals.This would mean increasing the resilience of the nascent energy,

transport and industrial systems,making them sustainable through efficient, low-carbon

and green.The country would need to embrace a full range of activities across these

sectors, from basic do-no-harm logic to the most progressive low-carbon choices

available to a country with such potential for renewable energy.

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It is clear that Myanmar's ability to reach ambitious climate resilience and low-

carbon goals will depend, to a considerable extent, onits capacity to develop inclusive,

sustainable and resilient energy, transport systems and industry within a similar

timeframe as the main national development objectives. Although this will assume a

variety of forms for these sectors, they allconverge on the need to build resilience to

prevent sudden damage to — or progressive deterioration of — financial viability from

rainfall, extreme temperatures or sealevel rise.The challenge will be to make progress

while ensuring sustainability and low-carbon, green development.

In the energy sector, national and sub-national consultations and the evolving

policy environment have highlighted priorities including:

(a) The promotion and diversification of renewable energy sources, supported by

further research in energy diversification;

(b) The improvement of energy efficiency in productive processes and

infrastructure; and

energy practices.

Overall, the need to ensure resilience in the face of heightened risks related to a

changing climate will need to underpin all energetic choices and actions.

In the transport sector, the consultations and the policy framework analysis both

focus on strictly implementing existing laws and regulations, which may be enough to

bring about considerable gains in emission control as following:

(a) The country will need to upgrade and retrofit existing infrastructure to reduce

vulnerabilities and maximise efficiency and generate adaptation and

mitigation co-benefits including greener and more progressive transport

systems.

(b) The sector may have considerable need for financial support and technology

transfer, to ensure the country benefits from efficient transport and more

rational, efficient spatial development.

In the industrial sector,

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(a) Myanmar will need to proactively implement environmental regulations

around the industrial location suitability and protection, and on water and

solid waste management and other issues.

(b) The focus should be on enhancing productivity and profit by developing

green industries, and

and tangible business cases.

3.4 Cities, towns and human settlements

Significance

In 2014, around 14.9 million of Myanmar's 51.48 million populations lived in

urban areas —around 29.6 percent of the population (GoM 2015b). The country has 330

towns and cities; Yangon and Mandalay account for 20 percent of the urban population

and generate a significant proportion of the nation's GDP. Although the proportion of

people living in urban areas in Myanmar is still low compared to other countries in the

region, the context is evolving rapidly, underpinned by four key issues.

First, the urban population is due to grow to about 20.4 million in 2030, or 34.7

percent of the current population. This growth is driven by population growth, the

increase in the manufacturing sector and the growth of real GDP progressively aligning

with regional trends as the country unlocks its potential after years of stagnation. It

represents an absolute increase of 36.9 percent in urban population by 2030, compared

to the 2014 census baseline. But other estimates indicate a faster growth rate that will

see 50 percent of the population living in cities and towns by 2040. Although the

percentage of the population living in urban areas is still comparatively low and the

annual has been similar to overall population growth (about 0.84 percent, according to

the 2014 census) the growth rate of the relative share of people living in agglomerations

of one million peopleis comparable to the regional trends.

Second, as the country organises its spatial growth strategies, all cities and

towns assume important strategic value for sustaining socioeconomic development. This

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includes large cities such as Yangon, Nay Pyi Taw and Mandalay, regional centres such as

Pathein and Bago and agro-industry centres such as Lashio and Monywa.

Third, with the notable exception of the country's main cities, the town

management committees that are in charge of township administration and

development do not easily engage in long-term strategic coordination and planning

(UN-Habitat 2016).

Finally, as the country's' economic potential unlocks, both industrial and

residential construction is expected to boom. Although the oil, gas and power sectors

attract most of the FDI inflow to Myanmar, the construction sector has been growing

steadily since 2001. This mainly refers to large infrastructure, but housing and urban

commercial buildings are a significant and ever-increasing segment of this sector,

reflecting the changes in the country's demographic, including emerging economic

sectors and the increased socioeconomic capacities of a growing middle class. This

sector will have a significant impact on the country's GHG emissions and the form of new

urban developments and their potential to be low carbon and resilient. This will increase

the consumption of energy at urban level. Interestingly, Yangon already uses about 50

percent of Myanmar's power.

Impacts of current climate and future changes

These four issues require immediate attention in light of the country's already

high vulnerability to natural hazards and the projected impacts of climate change. Cities

will become home to a higher concentration of people and assets. At the same time, the

pace of infrastructure development and land-use planning are struggling to integrate

environment-sensitive measures; towns and cities struggle to provide adequate services

for all. This increases exposure to hazards in both large and small settlements. And

because all mid-sized and small towns are home to an increasing number of people and

play an explicit role in the country's spatial and economic growth, their vulnerability to

changes in climate may decrease their capacity to support sustainable and inclusive

development and ensure the safety of residents. In particular, as large cities attract more

people who migrate because changes in climate decrease agriculture productivity,

informal settlements — with their poor infrastructure and services — may also grow.

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Informal settlements are often located in the most hazardous zones of towns and cities

and the socioeconomic vulnerability of their dwellers will be further deepened by the

adverse effects of climate change.

Both cities and towns in Myanmar are exposed to recurring rapid-onset natural

hazards, such as cyclones and floods. Yangon was badly affected by Cyclone Nargis in

2008 and smaller towns like Laputta also suffered huge numbers of casualties and

extensive damage. Urban areas in flood-prone areas or those that experience increased

water runoff due to more impermeable surfaces, will increasingly lose assets and lives to

the floods that result from more intense rains. Coastal towns such as Bogalay may have

to entirely redesign their form and infrastructure or even partly relocate because of

sealevel rise. Increasing water shortages may result in higher prices for services in

Yangon and Mandalay and threaten affordability and incomes. The sub-national

stakeholder consultations indicated thatsmall towns near coastal areas and delta are

exposed to cyclones, flooding and sea level rise.

Longer-term, slower-onset changes — such as increased temperature and

changing rainfall patterns will have serious effects that can drive rural-urban migration.

For example, the local consultations and 2014 census confirmed that changes in climate

observed over the last 20 years in the Dry Zone have decreased crop productivity and

resulted in migration, redistributing the population from rural to urban areas or abroad

(GoM 2015b). Projected climate change scenarios are also likely to affect small and mid-

sized towns — such as Pakokku or Lashio— which depend on largely rain-fed agro-

business. They may experience increased food prices and water shortages, which could

impair their attractiveness for business, work-force and competitiveness. This, in turn,

could affect their role in the national strategic spatial development plan. Stakeholders in

Bago and Mandalay also indicated during sub-national stakeholder consultations in

September 2015 that extreme heat results in health and sanitation issues.

Urban growth may also drive land-use change and deforestation, and have

negative impacts on the commitment to maintain forest coverage to reduce global

emissions. Deforestation can increase the exposure of urban settlements to risks such as

landslides, increased run-off of surface water and heat-island effects. The heat-island

effect resulting from increased temperatures and the densification of built-areas (such as

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the estimated increase of temperature for Yangon of +1°C by 2040 and +2.8°C by 2070),

will result in substantial threats to health and liveability.

Urbanisation and the construction processes will lead to increased demand of

energy, services and resources, which in turn may result in increased GHG emissions.

Myanmar's urbanisation process — withits ever-growing access to second-hand car

marketsand increased energy demand to operate buildings with poor energy efficiency

standards— will be among the factors that contribute to reshaping the country's GHG

inventory, considering that in some countries about 50 percent of overall GHG emissions

come from constructing and operating buildings.

Current policy,practice, future targets and challenges

Myanmar is presently at comparatively early stages of urbanisation and has the

opportunity to steer the process towards achieving urban resilience. For this reason,

Myanmar must engage early in the impending urbanisation process to create resilient,

sustainable and low-carbon towns and cities, regardless of size, and work over the long-

term through all realistic means. If urban planning and development approaches

integrate concepts of participation, resilience and the adoption of low-carbon

technologies, Myanmar can develop more inclusive, sustainable and resilient towns and

cities.

The government of Myanmar is drafting:

(a) National Urban and Regional Development Planning Law, which makes

reference to environmental and social issues that need to be integrated into

spatial planning

(b) National Housing Framework, which should integrate climate change

considerations in the delivery of affordable and inclusive housing, and

component.

The National Building Code has also been updated since 2016 and enacted in

2018. In addition to safety measures and disaster-sensible use of materials, construction

technics and technologies, it also includes specific provisions for energy efficiency, water

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supply efficiency and green buildings to contribute to reducing emissions and building

more habitablem adaptive buildings that reduce energy, cooling and lighting needs

through its use of design, technology and materials. Its enforcement will be essential,

but it will require self-adherence from the public and private sectors. If private

construction companies and developers do not mainstream resource-efficient, disaster-

resistant, climate change-adaptive designs and materials consistently at an early stage,

Myamar will lose a huge opportunity to create towns and cities that are carbon neutral

and can withstand the increased frequency and intensity of hazards. A number of

planners will be trained to achieve policy goals; they will be the first in Myanmar to

receive such training. But urban planning capacities remain a constraint at national and

local level,and will define administrators' ability to enforce regulations and building

codes.

With the exception of its three main cities, Myanmar's townships do not have the

capacity or the mandate for long-term strategic planning. It must urgently address the

challenge of integrating long-term climate change effects into decisions for

infrastructure, services and land-use.

Required response

Although Myanmar's urbanisation process is expected to deliver socioeconomic

growth and development in line with regional trends,but brings with its potential

heightened risk. People and assets in cities and towns will suffer from more rapid-onset

disasters and the slow-onset effects of climate change. Certain population groups —

often the poorest, particularly those living in informal settlements without secure tenure

and livelihoods —have the lowest capacity to adapt and will be more vulnerable to the

impacts of climate change. Urbanisation itself also implies increased emissions.

At this comparatively early stage of urbanisation, Myanmar has an opportunity to

steer the process towards city resilience and sustainability. Regardless of settlement size,

Myanmar must engage early to create towns and cities that are safe and habitable for all

people — especially the most vulnerable. It should aim to prevent and mitigate risks by

managing urban growth in a way that all urban residents have access to resilient

infrastructure, including sanitation, drainage and secure housing. At the same time,

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transport plans and compact design must contribute to sustainable urban growth.

Ultimately, Myanmar sees its efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change as a

contribution to alleviate suffering from climate change and enable sustainable and

durable development of the poor, in both rural and urban areas (INDC 2015).

Following the policy recommendations of the Myanmar Climate Change Policy to

build climate resilient and low-carbon human settlements, and in alignment with the

drafts of national urban policy consulted, the MCCS defines priorities to ensure that by

2030, Myanmar must develop resilient and sustainable cities and towns for all to live and

thrive, with emphasis on the most vulnerable people. This is in alignment with national

policies and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)11: “make cities inclusive, safe,

resilient and sustainable”.

Myanmar can achieve this aspiration through two main streams of action:

(a) First, it canreduce the vulnerability that results from the interaction of

increased concentrations of people and assets in towns and cities, sensitive

socioeconomic and infrastructural urban systems, and increasingly intense

and frequent climatic hazards.

(b) Second, it canengage in reducing and preventing new emissions through

compact urban development and low-carbon construction technologies.

3.5 Climate hazards and health

Significance

Disaster preparedness and risk management are essential to securing and

sustaining Myanmar's social and economic development and putting it on a climate-

resilient pathway. Myanmar is striving for social and economic transformation to achieve

its vision for 2030. With social development as one of its main priorities, the government

has devised policy responses to address key social protection and health issues:

(a) National Social Protection Strategic Plan, which envisions supporting

vulnerable households to protect livelihood assets and invest in activities

that will promote and transform livelihoods (GoM 2014b), and

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(b) National Environment and Health Action Plan (2010), to increase health

safety and create a healthy environment for the population.

Myanmar has made significant progress in achieving MDG targets, especially in

health and education. For example, under-five child mortality fell from 10 to 5.2 percent

between 1990 and 2010 (ADB 2015). The government has also increased spending in the

social sector. But extreme events and disasters are undermining development gains and

social progress and the country's climate projections suggest that these could get worse.

Disaster preparedness, health and risk management will play a key role in building the

resilience of households and the economy to climate change. The government has

recognised the growing threat thatdisaster risk poses to the achievement of its

development goals. In response, it has improved its capacity to prevent, manage and

recover from disasters. It has made some advances on predicting drought and generating

credible early warning information, but the challenge of effective response has become

more urgent as climate change increases vulnerability. Myanmar needs to build on these

responses to ensure that it can deal with climate-induced disaster and risks and build a

healthy and resilient society.

Impacts of current climate and future changes

Climate change projections for Myanmar suggest that the population's social and

economic development is at risk if the country does not strengthen and support public

health and social protection measures. Climate-induced disasters have already caused

huge economic and social losses in the past and will continue to be a major threat in

future. With projected climate change impacts, there will be more human and economic

losses in years to come, which will undermine GDP growth and social prosperity.

Extreme temperature and rainfall variability has led to an increase in the

frequency and timing of disasters. Data from 1998-2007 indicates that 71 percent of

reported disaster events were fire-related; 10 percent were from floods; 11 percent from

storms; and 8 percent from others, including earthquakes, tsunami and landslides

(MoSWRR 2009). But in the last ten years, Myanmar has experienced a number of major

cyclones, including Nargis in 2008 — which affected 2.4 million people, leaving 84,537

dead and 53,836 missing (MoSWRR2009) —and Cyclone Giri in Rakhine in 2010, which

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destroyed 21,242 homes and affected at least 224,21 people (UNFPA 2011). Drought and

extreme temperatures affect the country's arid to semi-arid central belt, impacting on

livelihoods and nutrition. During the summer of 2010, there were 1,482 reported heat-

related disorders and 260 heat-related deaths (NAPA 2012). Floods and landslides are

estimated to have caused K 1,080,573 million in production losses in 2015/2016, or about

1.7 percent of 2015 GDP.

Climate-induced shocks and stresses indiscriminately affect poor and

marginalised people's livelihoods and health and undermine the country's economic

development. Increased temperature and rainfall variability and change are projected to

have huge impact on health in Myanmar. The NAPA projection shows that the public

health sector is most at risk. It is projected that the increases in intense rain events will

lead to increased flooding and storm surges. These will result in increased diarrhoeal

diseases through contaminated water and skin disease from exposure to flood waters. At

the same time, increases in the occurrence and severity of droughts will decrease water

availability and quality, with concurrent health impacts.

Projections indicate that higher temperatures will also reduce the development

time for pathogens, increasing transmission rates. For example, mosquito-borne diseases

such as malaria and dengue will increase in highland areas such as Shan state, which are

too cold for vector insects. The IPCC AR5 for Asia projects that climate change is also

expected to affect the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue fever in the region (Banu

al.

2011). The sub-national consultation in Kachin reported that malaria was evident in

Shan State, and becoming more frequent with increasing temperatures and the spread

of mosquitoes. In Mandalay, stakeholders reported that local populations were

experiencing heat-related stresses and diseases more frequently, while increased

temperature and variability in rainfall and sea level rise is fuelling the occurrence and

spread of diseases.

Table 6: Climate change impacts on health sector

Health concerns Climate change impacts

Temperature-related Heat and cold-related illness

Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2018-2030)

Health concerns

Climate change impacts

morbidity

Cardiovascular system illness

Vector-borne diseases

Malaria, filarial, dengue and other pathogens carried by

mosquitoes, ticks and vectors

Health impacts of extreme

weather

Diarrhoea, cholera and poisoning caused by biological and

chemical contaminants in water

Damaged public health infrastructure due to cyclones

Injuries and illness

Social and mental stress from disaster and displacement

Health impacts of food

insecurity

Malnutrition and hunger, especially in children

Current policy, practice, future targets and challenges

Health and social protection

Current policy direction in the health sector focuses on ‘health for all' via

decentralised healthcare services that will prioritise vulnerable communities. The health

policies — the 2009 Myanmar Action Plan on Disaster Risk Reduction, Preparedness,

Relief and Rehabilitation (MAPDRR) and the 2013 Natural Disaster Management Law—

focus on protection, preventative and curative measures, public fitness, research,

financing, nationwide health services, multi-stakeholder and international engagement.

These could play a key role in addressing climate induce vulnerability. Access to health

infrastructure and improved institutional structures within the health sectors play an

important role in raising awareness and building capacity. Myanmar has 20 national

hospitals and 32 state and regional hospitals; the WHO has supported the establishment

of these hospitals since 2006. The Department of Health raises awareness through

newspapers, TV advertisements and posters to promote behaviour change.

The 2014 National Social Protection Strategic Plan provides steps to

helpvulnerable households protect their livelihood assets and invest in activities that will

promote and transform their livelihoods (GoM 2014b). The social protection strategies