Exposure Notification GAO-21-104622 38
the studies suggested that app usage can
decrease COVID-19 infections and deaths,
with the size of the estimated effects
depending on the level of app adoption,
among other things. For example, one peer-
reviewed study estimated that, when 15
percent of the population used an exposure
notification app, infections could be
reduced by approximately 8 percent and
deaths by about 6 percent. Another peer-
reviewed study in the United Kingdom
estimated that a 30 percent app uptake
averted approximately one infection for
every four infections that arose over a 4½-
month period.
However, there are significant limitations to
these modeling studies. For example, the
models estimated outcomes by relying on
assumptions about app usage and
behavioral changes associated with
notifications. These assumptions covered
factors such as how many people used an
app, how many app users had a positive
test result, and how many app users self-
R. Hinch, et al., Effective Configurations of a Digital Contact
Tracing App: A Report to NHSX, (April 16, 2020), accessed
December 9, 2021,
https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1009/Rep
ort_-_Effective_App_Configurations.pdf?1587531217.
M. Abueg, et al., “Modeling the Effect of Exposure
Notification and Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on
COVID-19 Transmission in Washington State,” npj Digital
Medicine, (4, 49), (March 12, 2021) accessed March 12,
2021, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41746-021-00422-
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C. Wymant, et al., “The Epidemiological Impact of the NHS
COVID-19 App,” Nature, Vol. 594, no. 7863 (2021).pp. 408-
412, accessed February 25, 2021.
P. Rodríguez, et al., “A Population-Based Controlled
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Contact Tracing,” Nature Communications, (January 26,
2021), accessed February 22, 2021,
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20817-6.
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Contact Tracing for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland,” Swiss
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2021, https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20457.
isolated. In some cases, particularly with
studies earlier in the pandemic, these
assumptions were not grounded in research
and were not otherwise well supported. For
example:
· Assumptions in one study were that
everyone notified of a potential
exposure would self-isolate, with a 2
percent drop-out rate each day, and
that 18 percent of infected people
remained asymptomatic, with no
variation in this rate across age
groups.
These assumptions were not
grounded in evidence because little to
none was available at the time.
· A study of three counties in Washington
State assumed in its simulations that it
would take 2 days from symptom onset
to receive a COVID-19 test result, which
the authors characterized as a key
assumption underlying the findings.
However, in the earlier months of the
D. Menges, et al., “A Data-Driven Simulation of the Exposure
Notification Cascade for Digital Contact Tracing of SARS-CoV-
2 in Zurich, Switzerland,” JAMA Network Open, (4
(4):e218184), (April 30, 2021), accessed July 13, 2021,
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullar
ticle/2779376.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory,
“Simulated Automatic Exposure Notification (SimAEN):
Exploring the Effects of Interventions on the Spread of
COVID,” Private Automated Contact Tracing (PACT)
Technical Report #3, (December 8, 2020), accessed March 1,
2021, https://pact.mit.edu/simulated-automatic-exposure-
notification-simaen-exploring-the-effects-of-interventions-
on-the-spread-of-covid-wlogos/.
75
Estimates of the COVID-19 asymptomatic rates vary
widely by age group, according to information from CDC.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Estimated
Disease Burden of COVID-19,” COVID-19, (Atlanta, Ga.:
updated May 19, 2021), accessed July 13, 2021,
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates
/burden.html.