Department of Defense
Climate Risk Analysis
October 2021
To the National Security Council
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Climate change is reshaping the geostrategic, operational, and tactical environments with significant
implications for U.S. national security and defense. Increasing temperatures; changing precipitation patterns;
and more frequent, intense, and unpredictable extreme weather conditions caused by climate change are
exacerbating existing risks and creating new security challenges for U.S. interests. The risks of climate change
to Department of Defense (DoD) strategies, plans, capabilities, missions, and equipment, as well as those of
U.S. allies and partners, are growing. Global efforts to address climate change – including actions to address
the causes as well as the effects – will influence DoD strategic interests, relationships, competition, and
priorities. To train, fight, and win in this increasingly complex environment, DoD will consider the effects of
climate change at every level of the DoD enterprise.
The DoD Climate Risk Analysis (DCRA) responds to requirements specified in Executive Order (EO) 14008,
“Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad.”
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The DCRA is organized as follows:
• Section I introduces key security implications of climate change to DoD, including DoD’s role supporting
whole-of-government and international efforts in concert with allies and partners.
• Section II reviews DoD climate policy and responsibilities, highlighting key documents.
• Section III presents a review of climate hazards, risks, and security implications. Sections on specific regions
have been identified as Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) and not releasable to the public. These
sections were removed to allow this to be a publicly-releasable document.
• Section IV outlines how DoD will incorporate consideration of climate into relevant strategy, planning, and
processes.
• Section V describes interagency scientific and intelligence products and experts, which could support future
analyses of climate risk, as well as expected funding for exercises, wargames, analyses, and studies related
to climate change.
• Section VI concludes the DCRA.
The DCRA is an important step towards integraon of climate change consideraons at DoD. To understand specic
climate eects on plans, resourcing, operaons, and missions, DoD Components will include climate consideraons
in relevant risk analyses, leveraging high-quality data, scenarios, and analycal tools tailored to DoD needs.
Working within the whole-of-government, and in coordinaon with allies and partners, DoD will strive to prevent,
migate, account for, and respond to defense and security risks associated with climate change.
Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis
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EO 14008, Secon 103(c) requires the Secretary of Defense to develop “an analysis of the security implicaons of climate change (Climate Risk
Analysis) that can be incorporated into modeling, simulaon, war-gaming, and other analyses.”
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PLEASE CITE THIS DOCUMENT AS:
Department of Defense, Oce of the Undersecretary for Policy (Strategy, Plans, and Capabilies). 2021.
Department of Defense Climate Risk Analysis. Report Submied to Naonal Security Council.
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FOREWORD
To keep the naon secure, we must tackle the existenal threat of climate change. The unprecedented scale of
wildres, oods, droughts, typhoons, and other extreme weather events of recent months and years have damaged our
installaons and bases, constrained force readiness and operaons, and contributed to instability around the world.
Climate change touches most of what this Department does, and this threat will connue to have worsening
implicaons for U.S. naonal security.
To meet this complex challenge, the Department of Defense (DoD) is integrang climate change consideraons at all
levels, including in our risk analyses, strategy development, planning, modeling, simulaon, and war gaming.
The DoD Climate Risk Analysis (DCRA) is a crical step for incorporang climate change security implicaons at a
strategic level. As the global and cross-cung consequences of climate change increase the demands on the
Department, the DCRA provides a starng point for a shared understanding of the mission risks of climate change—
and lays out a path forward.
For example, climate consideraons will be included in key DoD documents, such as the forthcoming Naonal
Defense Strategy, which guides the ways that DoD meets naonal security challenges. Coupled with the Climate
Adaptaon Plan, which will help the Department operate under changing climate condions, the DCRA reects the
Department’s focus on confronng climate change.
Climate change presents serious risks, but DoD, along with the enre U.S. government, as well as our allies and
partners, is determined to address this common threat. The Department will work to prevent, migate, and respond
to the defense and security risks associated with climate change. By doing so, we will ensure that we connue to
fulll our mission of defending the United States.
Lloyd J. Ausn III, Secretary of Defense
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I. INTRODUCTION
“There is little about what the Department does to defend the American people that is not affected by
climate change.”
— Secretary of Defense Austin, Statement Released in January 2021
Climate change is reshaping the geostrategic, operaonal, and taccal environments with signicant implicaons
for U.S. naonal security and defense. Increasing temperatures; changing precipitaon paerns; and more
frequent, intense, and unpredictable extreme weather condions caused by climate change are exacerbang
exisng risks and creang new challenges for U.S. interests. Without adaptaon and resilience measures, climate
hazards, parcularly when combined with other stressors, are likely to contribute to polical, economic, and
social instability around the world. In many cases, the physical and social impacts of climate change transcend
polical boundaries, increasing the risk that crises cascade beyond any one country or region. Box 1 provides
denions of key terms used in this document.
The risks of climate change to DoD strategies, plans, capabilities, missions, and equipment, as well as those of
our allies and partners, are growing. Therefore, analyses based on historical frameworks will not be sufficient
to prepare for future risks complicated by a changing climate. To train, fight, and win in this increasingly
complex strategic, operational, and tactical environment, DoD will consider the effects of climate change at
every level of the DoD enterprise. The Department will consider how crises exacerbated by climate change are
likely to increase demand for defense missions and impact critical supply chains, infrastructure, and readiness.
Mission success will depend on planning and operational adaptability that account for climate-related
complexities and contingencies, and on forces, equipment, and capabilities engineered to adapt to and
withstand more extreme environments. Box 2 includes examples of the security implications of climate
change both at home and abroad.
BOX 1. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS
Adaptaon - Adjustment in natural or human systems in anticipation of or response to a changing
environment in a way that effectively uses beneficial opportunities or reduces negative efforts. (DoD
Directive (DoDD) 4715.21)
Climate Change - Variations in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer that
encompass increases and decreases in temperature, shifts in precipitation, and changing risk of certain types
of severe weather events. (DoDD 4715.21, Joint Publication (JP) 1-02)
Climate Change Migaon - Measures to reduce the amount and speed of future climate change by reducing
emissions of heat-trapping gases or removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. (U.S. Global Research
Program)
Hazard - A condition with the potential to cause injury, illness, or death of personnel; damage to or loss of
equipment or property; or mission degradation. (DoD Dictionary, 2021)
Resilience - The ability to anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to,
and recover rapidly from disruptions. (DoDD 4715.21)
Risk - Probability and severity of loss linked to threats or hazards and vulnerabilities. (DoDD 3020.40)
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BOX 2. EXAMPLES OF SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AT HOME AND ABROAD
• For the homeland, extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change have caused hardships for
millions of Americans, and have the long-term potential to undermine training capability and readiness.
Extreme events have cost the United States billions of dollars in damages in recent years, such as at Tyndall
Air Force Base and Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune.
• In the Arctic, climate change is dramatically altering the natural environment and creating a new frontier of
geostrategic competition.
• In the Indo-Pacific, sea-level rise and more extreme weather events complicate the security environment,
place key DoD warfighting infrastructure and surrounding communities at risk, and challenge local capacity
to respond. For example, the United States has important defense assets located in Guam, the Marshall
Islands, and Palau, all of which are vulnerable to these hazards. Additionally, competitors such as China
may try to take advantage of climate change impacts to gain influence.
Even with aggressive internaonal and whole-of-
government acon to migate future climate change,
many eects to the physical environment are now
unavoidable and will connue to shape our security
environment. DoD will adapt to and migate the
impacts of these changes to the climate as outlined in
the DoD Climate Adaptaon Plan (CAP) as well as the
Sustainability Report and Implementaon Plan (SRIP).
The CAP details pathways to achieve an end-state
where “DoD can operate under changing climate
condions, preserving operaonal capability and
enhancing the natural and manmade systems essenal
to the Department’s success.”
DoD plays an important role in the whole-of-
government eort to address climate change security
risks, which includes working closely with allies,
partners, and mullateral instuons to migate
future climate change and adapt to those changes that
are unavoidable. The challenges posed by climate change demand on-going analysis of evolving risks as well as
investments in resilience, internaonal development, and governance. As many areas of U.S. Government (USG)
response are primarily the responsibility of civilian agencies, DoD will work closely with state and local
governments and other parts of the Federal Government, including the Department of State, U.S. Agency for
Internaonal Development (USAID), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), intelligence agencies, and
science agencies. DoD will oen be in a supporng role to other agencies in working with local stakeholders and
governments to counter climate-related risks to U.S. naonal security.
U.S. allies, partners, and competors are assessing the implicaons of climate change on their respecve
strategic objecves. Malign actors may try to exploit regional instability exacerbated by the impacts of climate
change to gain inuence or for polical or military advantage. Global eorts to address climate change –
including acons to address the causes as well as the eects – will inuence DoD strategic interests,
relaonships, and priories. Cooperaon with internaonal partners to address the security implicaons of
climate change can strengthen alliances and partnerships. Building awareness of how other naons are
preparing for climate change is crical to understanding the risks and opportunies across strategic, operaonal,
and taccal environments.
There is evidence that climate change is making hurricanes stronger and
more destrucve.
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II. DOD CLIMATE POLICY AND RESPONSIBILITIES
The foundaon for DoD’s climate policy is based on U.S. policy, statutes, execuve orders, internaonal agreements,
and administrave guidance. A list of relevant documents is provided in Appendix 1. Both the 2010 and 2014
Quadrennial Defense Reviews considered the impacts of climate change on DoD. The 2014 DoD Climate Change
Adaptaon Roadmap, building o of a previous 2012 roadmap, idened climate change as a naonal security threat
and detailed vulnerabilies to a changing climate. Statutory requirements include Secon 335(b) of the Naonal
Defense Authorizaon Act for Fiscal Year 2018 (Public Law 115-91), which stated that “climate change is a direct
threat to the naonal security of the United States and is impacng stability in areas of the world both where the
United States Armed Forces are operang today, and where strategic implicaons for future conict exists.” The
statute includes the sense of Congress that DoD “must ensure that it is prepared to conduct operaons both today
and in the future and that it is prepared to address the eects of a changing climate on threat assessments,
resources, and readiness,” and that installaons should consider climate damage in their master plans.
Last updated in 2018, DoD Direcve (DoDD) 4715.21, “Climate Adaptaon and Resilience,” states that DoD must
assess and manage risks associated with the impacts of climate change on DoD missions and installaons and
strengthen resilience to those impacts. Given that climate change has implicaons for nearly all that DoD does, the
CAP describes how no Component can “opt out.” Looking forward, DoD will consider all the strategic implicaons
of climate, as well as connue to assess the ways climate impacts DoD installaons, operaons, and planning.
DoDD 4715.21 also describes responsibilies related to climate in the Department. The Under Secretary of Defense
for Policy (USD(P)) is responsible for developing policies, plans, programs, forces, and posture needed to implement
the DoD strategy including, as appropriate, adapng acons to increase resilience to climate change. In doing so,
USD(P) responsibilies include dening strategic climate risks and those that might contribute to demand for
defense missions, including consideraon of climate into relevant strategic and operaonal documents; interfacing
with interagency eorts related to the links between climate and stabilizaon; supporng USAID humanitarian
assistance and disaster response; leading internaonal engagements including security cooperaon; and
overseeing mission assurance. USD(P)'s sta also convene a group of DoD subject maer experts to share
informaon and inform strategic thinking about the links between climate change, resource compeon, and other
aspects of environmental security.
Addionally, DoDD 4715.21 states that the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquision & Sustainment (USD(A&S))
leads the development and oversees the implementaon of DoD policy on climate change adaptaon and
resilience. These eorts support the delivery and sustainment of secure and resilient capabilies to the Warghter,
to include energy, climate, and water resilience and adaptaon to the eects of climate change. Recent USD(A&S)
climate-focused documents and tools include the CAP, an evaluaon of resilience measures installaons can deploy
to reduce vulnerability to climate hazards ("DoD Installaon Exposure to Climate Change at Home and Abroad,"
2021), and the DoD Climate Assessment Tool (DCAT).
Many other oces play crical roles related to climate change. DoDD 4715.21 provides details on roles specically
related to climate change adaptaon and resilience, including roles for addional Oce of the Secretary of Defense
(OSD) sta, as well as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Sta, Combatant Commanders, and other DoD Components.
In January 2021, President Biden signed EO 14008, “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad,” which
elevates climate consideraons to be “an essenal element of United States foreign policy and naonal security”
and highlights the urgency of tackling climate change to “avoid the most catastrophic impacts.” The DCRA is in
response to the requirements specied in Secon 103(c) of EO 14008. The Secretary of Defense’s March 2021
Memorandum established the OSD Climate Working Group to (1) coordinate Department responses to EO 14008
and subsequent climate- and energy-related direcves, and (2) track implementaon of climate- and energy-
related acons and progress against future goals.
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Reduced
water supply
Critical assets
inundated
More
drought
More
flooding
Altered planning and
operational requirements
to reduce vulnerability
CLIMATE HAZARD
PRIMARY IMPACT SECONDARY IMPACT
Agricultural
production
reduced
Infrastructure
damage
► Competition for scarce
natural resources
► Increased demand for defense
support of civil authoritiesa nd
humanitarian assi sta nce and
di sa ste r response
► Acce ss, basing, and overflight
a t ri sk
Heightened so ci a l and
political tensions, increased
likelihood of migration,
conflict, and/or competitors
using instability to expand
influence
SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
III. CLIMATE HAZARDS, IMPACTS, AND
SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
Across the globe, climate change is contributing to an array of hazards including higher temperatures;
changing precipitation patterns; and more frequent, intense, and unpredictable extreme weather conditions.
These climate hazards can lead to impacts due to natural or social vulnerabilities, which have security
implications for DoD. Some security implications may result directly from climate change, but many result
from direct or indirect impacts of climate change (Figure 1). For example, the climate hazard of changing
precipitation patterns is expected to cause more frequent and intense droughts in certain regions of the
world. Primary impacts of drought include reduced water availability. Secondary impacts include reduced
agricultural yields, which, in certain situations, could contribute to migration. Particularly when climate
hazards converge and compound, there will likely be unprecedented challenges for governments to respond.
For example, drought increases the chance of wildfires, which, in turn, contribute to more frequent and
severe flooding; combined, these hazards can compound exponentially on populations.
As the frequency and intensity of these hazards increase, impacts are likely to expand compeon over regions
and resources, aect the demands on and funconality of military operaons, and increase the number and
severity of humanitarian crises, at mes threatening stability and security. Climate change is one of many
factors that contribute to instability and conict; resilience and strong governance responses can reduce the
likelihood of climate hazards having security implicaons. However, in worst-case scenarios, climate change-
related impacts could stress economic and social condions that contribute to mass migraon events or
polical crises, civil unrest, shis in the regional balance of power, or even state failure. This may aect U.S.
naonal interests directly or indirectly, and U.S. allies or partners may request U.S. assistance.
Figure 1. Examples of connecons between climate hazards, primary and secondary climate impacts, and security implicaons.
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While the effects of climate change are global, specific hazards, impacts, and risks associated with climate
change will differ by region. The majority of climate hazards are not new; however, climate change is altering
the frequency, intensity, and location of the hazards, contributing to vulnerability and compounding risks.
Additionally, when climate change intersects with other forms of environmental degradation, such as
deforestation and erosion, the impact can be even greater. Climate impacts, such as increased competition
over scarce resources, are likely to contribute to internal tensions within countries, as well as external
tensions between countries. As the likelihood of multiple converging extreme events increases with climate
change, risks can compound and put enormous pressure on any government’s capacity to respond, increasing
the possibility of cascading security impacts. Box 3 provides examples of some of these crosscutting risks.
BOX 3. CROSSCUTTING CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS
While certain climate hazards and impacts are specific to particular regions of the world, many are cross-
cutting, cascading, and/or global. Some examples include:
• Shifts in agricultural production in one region can
impact global food prices and availability,
contributing to food shortages, protests, and
instability in other parts of the world.
• Impacts to marine ecosystems and resources have
implications for fisheries and food security across
the globe, which could become a source of
friction.
• As temperatures and precipitation patterns shift,
distribution and range of vector-borne diseases,
such as malaria, will change.
• Increasingly unpredictable rainfall related to
climate change could make it harder to resolve
disputes over transboundary rivers such as the
Nile and Mekong Rivers.
• Climate change that exacerbates insecurity and instability in one region may disrupt nomadic population
movements and/or contribute to temporary or permanent migration that impacts other regions.
• Global supply chains are at risk to extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. For example,
the 2011 floods in Thailand disrupted production of components for global companies including computer
disk drives and cars.
• Policy responses to climate change could also have unintended consequences and become sources of
dispute, such as policies that impact supply chains or critical minerals.
DoD supports the US Government Assistance to Hai aer Hurricane
Mahew in 2016.
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HEATFLOODING
Increased demand for
defense support of civil
authorities (DSCA).
Increased demand for humanitarian
assistance and disaster response
(HADR) overseas.
Transport, communication, and
monitoring capabilities to
operate in harsh environment.
Altered, limited, or
constrained environment
for military operations.
Instability within
and among
other nations.
SEA/GLACIAL
ICE RETREAT
DROUGHT
HURRICANES &
TYPHOONS
WILDFIRES
RISING SEA
LEVEL
USAFRICOM
USCENTCOM
USINDOPACOM
USNORTHCOM
USSOUTHCOM
ARCTIC
USEUCOM
Figure 2 illustrates some representave climate change hazards and potenal impacts on DoD missions around
the world.
Figure 2. Selected regional hazards worsened by climate change (key to symbols on the top row above map) and idened security implicaons (key to
symbols on the boom row below the map). This map illustrates some of the key risks by region, but is not comprehensive of all risk.
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The regional secons have been idened as Controlled Unclassied Informaon (CUI) and not releasable
to the public. These secons were removed to allow this to be a publicly-releasable document.
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IV. INCORPORATING CLIMATE RISK
DoD will integrate the security implications of climate change into key strategic documents, programs, and
international partner engagements. DoD will also consider how to integrate climate considerations into DoD
educational institution curriculums.
A. KEY DOD DOCUMENTS
Strategic documents signed by the Secretary or other senior DoD leaders guide DoD Components, formalize
priorities to direct resource allocation, and drive action to accomplish desired ends. As required by EO 14008,
Section 103(d), DoD will incorporate climate considerations into the National Defense Strategy (NDS); Defense
Planning Guidance (DPG); the Chairman’s Risk Assessment; and other relevant strategy, planning, and
programming documents and processes. A report on progress of this integration is due annually to the
National Security Council starting in January 2022. Climate change will be integrated into several of these
documents through the office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities under
the USD(P). In addition to the guidance in EO 14008, Section 103(d), DoD will also include consideration of
climate across all relevant strategy, planning, force management, force employment, force development, and
budget documents as discussed below and summarized in Figure 3.
As the capstone strategic guidance for DoD, the NDS will examine ways in which climate change affects the
security landscape and defense missions, activities, and resources. The NDS will also identify priorities and
outcomes and direct the integration of climate considerations into nested strategy documents, including the
National Military Strategy.
POLICY
(DELIBERATIVE DOCUMENT: For discussion purposes only. Draft working papers. Not subject to FOIA release)"
DCRA Figure 3
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STRATEGY PLANNING
FORCE
MANAGEMENT,
DEVELOPMENT,
& EMPLOYMENT
BUDGET,
ANALYSIS, &
ASSSESSMENT
PARTNERED
ACTIVITIES &
ACQUISITION
• National Defense
Strategy
• National Military
Strategy
• Combatant
Command Theater
Strategies
• Unified Command
Plan
• Contingency
Planning Guidance
• Joint Strategic
Campaign Plan
• Operation Plans
• Global/Functional
Campaign Plans
• Service Planning
Guidance
• Combatant
Command Campaign
Plans
• Defense Planning
Guidance
• Global Force
Management
Guidance
• Contingency Planning
Guidance
• Global Force Posture
Recommendations
• Guidance for
Employment of the
Force
• Joint Warfighting
Concept
• Service Warfighting
Concepts
• Strategic Portfolio
Reviews
• Analysis of Alternatives
• Annual Joint Assessment
• Chairman's Risk
Assessment
• Defense Planning
Scenarios
• Program Objective
Memorandum
• Service and Independent
Cost Estimates
• Security Cooperation
Programs
• Partnership Plans
• Acquisition Strategy
• Major Defense Service
and Acquisition
Programs
• State Partnership
Program
• Joint and Service
Capability Development
Processes and
Oversight
Figure 3. Examples of DoD documents in which climate will be incorporated.
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The Secretary of Defense updates the NDS at least every four years. Under Secon 113 of Title 10 U.S. Code
U.S.C., the NDS must include: DoD’s priority missions; assumed force planning scenarios; assumed strategic
environment, including the most crical and enduring threats, as well as strategies for countering threats; a
strategic framework for priorizaon of threats and risks; the roles and missions of the armed forces; elements
of the defense program necessary to support the strategy; and a ve-year plan for major investments that
support the strategic framework. In the intervening years, the Secretary is required to assess the NDS
implementaon and any needed revisions. The 2021 Interim Naonal Security Strategic Guidance clearly
idenes climate change as one of the most signicant threats facing the United States. As an important
element of the strategic environment, now and in the future, climate change will be integrated into the NDS.
Section 113 also requires the Secretary to provide
guidance on the preparation and review of contingency
and campaign plans, which is provided through
Contingency Planning Guidance (CPG) and the Guidance
for Employment of the Force (GEF).
The CPG addresses preparaon and review of
conngency and campaign plans, including homeland
defense and military support to civil authories. The
2021 CPG includes priorizaon of severe weather
challenges to war plan development, and future CPGs will
include consideraon of other aspects of climate change.
The GEF includes a priorizaon of forces and resources; priorizaon of conngency and campaign plans;
priorizaon of global, regional, and funconal policy objecves; policy and strategic assumpons; guidance on
global posture and global force management; security cooperaon priories; and nuclear policy. Climate change
will be integrated into the GEF through the idencaon of priories and planning, including global, regional,
and funconal consideraons. The GEF provides a set of strategic assumpons that reect the implicaons of
climate change, such as impacts on compeon over resources, likelihood of increased demand for humanitarian
assistance and disaster response (HADR), and vulnerabilies of allies and partners’ in each Combatant Command
(CCMD). A new GEF will be released in spring 2022 and will reect climate guidance.
B. INTERNATIONAL PARTNER ENGAGEMENT
Tackling climate change is a USG priority, and DoD will incorporate climate considerations into its
engagements with allies and partners. For example, DoD worked closely with NATO allies to develop a Climate
Change and Security Agenda and subsequent Action Plan in June 2021. There are opportunities for DoD to
share its climate tools, resources, and experts, and to learn from partners and allies who have climate change
mitigation and adaptation expertise. The DoD CAP also describes the importance of coordination with allies
and partners in its Line of Effort 5 “Enhance Adaptation and Resilience Through Collaboration.”
There are many ways for the Department to integrate climate consideraons into internaonal partner
engagements, including supporng interagency diplomacy and development iniaves in partner naons;
providing humanitarian assistance amid climate-aected crises; countering malign actors who seek to exploit
climate change to gain inuence; and sharing best pracces. Some specic tools, funds, and programs, which
are summarized in Appendix 2, include: the DCAT; Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid (OHDACA)
funds; USINDOPACOM’s Pacic Environmental Security Partnership (PESP); DoD Regional Centers for Security
Studies; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) technical assistance to partner countries on climate resilience;
the State Partnership Program (SPP) as a forum for disaster-response planning and communicaon; the
Instute for Security Governance engagements building global partner resilience; and the Defense Instute of
Internaonal Legal Studies (DIILS) advising, educaon, training engagements, and courses.
A Texas Army Naonal Guard UH-60 Black Hawk helps ght wildres.
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V. INFORMING AND FUNDING FUTURE CLIMATE
RISK ANALYSES
The DCRA serves as a first step towards inclusion of the security implications of climate change across the
DoD enterprise. Tailored analyses of climate risk will be needed to inform specific modeling, simulation, and
exercises. The following subsections detail scientific and intelligence information, as well as relevant
interagency groups, that can help support future analyses of climate hazards, impacts, risks, and security
implications for DoD.
A. SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION
DoD relies on data, science, and evidence in decision-making, including planning, policy, and decisions related
to climate risk. Risk analyses are not meant to be fixed in time; rather, they must be frequently updated
through an iterative process that captures evolving risks and new scientific advances. To understand specific
climate effects on plans, resourcing, operations, and missions, DoD Components will include climate
considerations in relevant risk analyses, leveraging high-quality data, scenarios, and analytical tools tailored
to DoD needs.
Current DoD-specific resources for climate data,
analysis, and assessments include, but are not limited
to, the DCAT; the U.S. Army Climate Assessment Tool
(ACAT); the U.S. Air Force 14th Weather Squadron
within the 557th Weather Wing under Air Combat
Command; and the Climatology Division at Fleet
Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.
DoD relies on authoritative scientific data and
modeling provided by USG science agencies.
Improvements in predictive capacity of short- to
medium-term weather anomalies are needed to have
scientific information at time scales required for DoD strategy and planning. DoD will validate its selection and
use of climate data and projections internally and through consultation with scientific agencies and other
partners such as DoD’s Climate Working Group, DoD’s Strategic Environmental Research and Development
Program (SERDP), Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs), and the U.S. Global Change
Research Program (USGCRP)—(of which DoD is a member)—within the White House Office of Science and
Technology Policy (OSTP). DoD will continue to review and assess how to integrate climate science, data, and
scenarios into Department documents and processes.
B. INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS
There are various classified and unclassified U.S. intelligence products regarding the security risks associated
with climate change, including Annual Threat Assessments, the quadrennial Global Trends reports, and the
2016 National Intelligence Council White Paper. In 2020, consistent with 50 U.S.C. § 3060, the Director of
National Intelligence established the Climate Security Advisory Council (CSAC), bringing together the
Intelligence Community and Federal Science Agencies to advance insights on the national security impacts of
climate change. As required by EO 14008, Section 103(b), the Intelligence Community is developing a National
Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the national and economic security impacts of climate change. Both the CSAC
and the climate NIE will be important resources to inform future DoD climate security risk analyses.
Coast Guard crews train in high surf to ensure they are prepared to respond
to any marime emergency during rough weather condions.
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C. FUNDING
The Department intends to priorize funding DoD Components in support of exercises, wargames, analyses,
and studies of climate change impacts on DoD missions, operaons, and global stability. The President’s FY
2022 Budget request included funds to incorporate climate risk into exercises, wargames, analyses, and studies.
Appropriated funds will be alloed via exisng governance structures including the Combatant Commander
Exercise Engagement and Training Transformaon program and the Wargaming Incenve Fund. Box 4 provides
a list of examples of climate risk that could be included in future modeling, simulaon, and wargaming.
BOX 4. EXAMPLES OF CLIMATE RISK TO BE INCORPORATED INTO MODELING,
SIMULATION, AND WARGAMING
• Sensor operations: changes in the operating environment due to temperature extremes or extended
rainfall; loss of effectiveness based on climate conditions.
• Information operations: how changes in “normal” climate cycle affect operations.
• Aircraft performance (fixed wing and rotary wing): loss of payload capacity, range, and loiter time based on
increased temperatures.
• Wildfires: loss of range or accuracy due to extreme weather conditions.
• Ground mobility: extended monsoon season and trafficability; impact on medical evacuation and resupply
by ground means.
• Naval operations: underway replenishment in altered sea conditions; loss of capability/efficiency in fuel
transfer (e.g., ship to shore).
• Non-combatant Evacuation Operations: conflict exacerbated by climate change impacts; embassy security
or evacuation considerations.
• Access, basing, and overflight constraints.
• Exercises: extreme weather-related cancellations and effects on readiness.
• Threat icons: integrate irregular threat icons that represent non-state actors, transnaonal criminal
organizaons, or other unocial competors movated to disrupt operaons during an exercise or wargame.
• Critical infrastructure: climate-related delays, disruption, and/or degradation of DoD to produce, package,
repair, and distribute materiel and ammunition and its effects on readiness and/or operations.
• Degradation of Joint Force performance due to extreme weather events associated with climate change.
• Consideration of the impact of increased demand for HADR and DSCA.
16
VI. CONCLUSION
“No nation can find lasting security without addressing the climate crisis.”
— Secretary of Defense Austin, April 2021
The DCRA provides an initial review of the security implications of climate change specific to DoD missions and identifies
strategy, planning, and other documents that will incorporate consideration of climate change. Guidance will be
included in Secretary-level strategic documents, such as the NDS, DPG, and GEF, as well as other DoD core guidance
documents to drive prioritization of climate considerations throughout the Department. The authors thank DoD and
interagency counterparts for reviewing and contributing to this document. The DCRA provides a critical step towards
integration of climate change considerations at every level of the DoD enterprise. Working within the
whole-of-government, and in coordination with allies and partners, DoD will work to prevent, mitigate, account for, and
respond to defense and security risks associated with climate change.
17
APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE-RELATED STATUTES, DOD
ISSUANCES AND POLICIES, AND EXECUTIVE ORDERS
Climate-Related Statutes
10 U.S.C. § 118, Quadrennial Defense Review
10 U.S.C. § 2802, Military Construcon Projects
10 U.S.C. § 2864, Master plans for major military installaons
10 U.S.C. § 2902, Strategic Environmental Research and
Development Program Council
15 U.S.C. § 2904, Naonal Climate Program
50 U.S.C. § 3060, Climate Security Advisory Council
Climate-Related Issuances
DoDD 3020.40, Mission Assurance
DoDD 4715.21, Climate Change Adaptaon and Resilience
DoD Instrucon (DoDI) 3020.45, The Mission Assurance Construct
DoDI 3200.21, Sustaining Access to the Live Training Domain
DoDI 4170.11, Installaon Energy Management
DoDI 4715.03, Natural Resources Conservaon Program
DoD Manual 4715.03, Integrated Natural Resource Management Plan
Climate-Related DoD and Departmental Policies and Guidance
Air Force Instrucon (AFI) 32-1015, Integrated Installaon Planning
AFI 90-2001, Mission Sustainment
Air Force Manual (AFMAN) 32-7003, Environmental Conservaon
Air Force Severe Weather/Climate Hazard Screening and Risk
Assessment Playbook
Army Climate Resilience Handbook
Army Direcve 2020-08, U.S. Army Installaon Policy to Address
Threats Caused by Changing Climate and Extreme Weather
Army Memorandum Consideraon of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
and the Eects of Climate Army Regulaon 210-20, Real Property
Master Planning for Army Installaons
Climate Adaptaon for DoD Natural Resource Managers Report
DoD Installaon Exposure to Climate Change at Home and Abroad,
April 2021
Marine Corps Order (MCO) 11000.5, Facilies Sustainment,
Restoraon and Modernizaon Program
MCO 11000.12, Real Property Facilies Manual, Facilies Planning
and Programming
Oce of the Chief of Naval Operaons Instrucon 11010.40A,
Encroachment Management Program
NAVFAC Climate Change and Installaon Adaptaon and Resilience
Planning Handbook
Unied Facilies Criteria (UFC) 2-100-01 Installaon Master Planning
Recent Climate-Related Execuve Orders (EOs)
EO 13985, Advancing Racial Equity and Support for Underserved
Communies Through the Federal Government, January 20, 2021
EO 13990, Protecng Public Health and the Environment and
Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis, January 20, 2021
EO 14008, Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad,
January 27, 2021
EO 14013, Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs to Resettle
Refugees and Planning for the Impact of Climate Change on
Migration, February 4, 2021
EO 14017, America’s Supply Chains, February 24, 2021
EO 14027, Establishment of the Climate Change Support Office,
May 7, 2021
EO 14030, Climate-Related Financial Risk, May 20, 2021
18
APPENDIX 2. EXAMPLES OF TOOLS, FUNDS, AND
PROGRAMS THAT SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL
PARTNER CLIMATE RESILIENCE.
Note: This list is intended to provide some examples but is not exhaustive.
• The DoD Climate Assessment Tool (DCAT) uses data from past weather events and projections of some future climate changes to
provide high-level assessments of exposure to climate change for critical infrastructure. To date, the Department has used the
DCAT on hundreds of domestic installations and a selection of overseas installations (see the DoD Installation Exposure At Home
and Abroad report for more information about these assessments and the DCAT). Many of these locations are important for
operational plans and ongoing operations. The Department will incorporate the results of these exposure assessments into
military construction requests, partnership activities, and relationships with allies. DoD is committed to share the DCAT with allies
and partners to help build climate resilience.
• One of the Department’s most effective tools for helping partners cope with extreme events exacerbated by climate change is
through its Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid (OHDACA) appropriation and associated Title 10 authorities. The
majority of the annual OHDACA funding supports steady-state humanitarian assistance projects, including those related to the
effects of climate change. DoD-supported projects include sponsoring disaster assessments to identify gaps; training our partners
to conduct disaster planning and disaster management; assisting partners with disaster response exercises; constructing disaster
warehouses, emergency operations centers, and hurricane shelters; and building up a partner’s health capacity. Joint DoD and
USAID disaster risk reduction efforts in Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Nepal continue to be encouraging examples of ways to
reduce adverse effects of extreme weather events on vulnerable populations.
• The Pacific Environmental Security Partnership (PESP), an initiative of USINDOPACOM, brings together a network of
environmental security partners with an interest in cooperation and capacity development. Their annual event, the Pacific
Environmental Security Forum, has been held for over a decade. This could be an example for other CCMDs.
• DoD Regional Centers for Security Studies build partners’ capacity to forecast, assess, and mitigate the security impacts of climate
change by conducting bilateral and multilateral research, workshops, subject matter exchanges, and training and education
activities for U.S. and partner military and civilian participants. For example, the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security
Studies teaches climate security modules in every resident course and includes climate change security impacts in partner
exercises and gray zone games.
• Under its Title 10 authorities, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) provides technical assistance to certain partner countries
and inter-governmental organizations on climate resilience and risk mitigation. For example, USACE supports Mekong River
Commission climate resilience efforts in the Mekong basin and collaborates with the United Nations on climate risk-informed
water management, including flood and drought monitoring and forecasting in Southern Africa.
• The State Partnership Program (SPP) partners State National Guard organizations with 92 countries and provides an opportunity
for DoD and partner-nation governments to coordinate on all aspects of force readiness. It also provides a forum for disaster-
response planning, ensuring the United States remains a partner of choice. The SPP provides a channel of communication for
discussion of military implications of climate change and mitigation efforts with partner and allied nations.
• The Institute for Security Governance builds global partner resilience capacity via engagements specifically designed to enhance
partner whole-of-government, all-hazards readiness, and resilience to face the full range of crises and emergencies. These
engagements incorporate consideration of issues directly related to climate security such as: comprehensive risk assessment,
energy security, secure and sustained provision of essential goods and services, civil preparedness, and governance under
degraded or de-stabilizing conditions.
• The Defense Institute of International Legal Studies (DIILS) builds global partner legal capacity via advising, education, training
engagements, and courses. Some of these address legal issues directly related to climate security and destabilizing conditions,
such as those associated with military support to civilian authorities for border security or disaster response operations, Civilian
Harm Mitigation (CHM) efforts, rights and obligations associated with refugees and displaced persons, maritime security and
interdiction operations, and hybrid warfare and malign influence operations.
