E NERGY T ECHNOLOGIES AREA E NERGY ANALYSIS AND E NVIRONMENTAL I MPACTS DIVISION
In the Nick of Time: Aiming for
Efficiency’s Highest Value
David Nemtzow, U.S. Department of Energy
Natalie Mims Frick and Lisa Schwartz, Berkeley Lab
December 4, 2019
This presentation was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building Technologies
Office under Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231
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https://emp.lbl.gov/projects/time-value-efficiency
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Today’s speakers
David Nemtzow is the director of the Building Technologies Office
of the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy. David brings to US DOE more than three
decades of experience in the field, including running the large
state government energy, utilities and water department in New
South Wales, Australia; leading the Alliance to Save Energy, a
prominent bipartisan nonprofit energy efficiency association; he
had a utility and DER consulting practice; and frequently speaks
and publishes in the field.
Natalie Mims Frick is an Energy Efficiency Program Manager in the
Electricity Markets and Policy Group at Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory. Natalie conducts research and manages
projects on energy efficiency technical assistance, policy, program
design, implementation and evaluation.
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Presentation outline
What is time-sensitive value of energy efficiency and
why do we care?
Overview of prior time-sensitive value of energy
efficiency research by LBNL
Time-Sensitive Value of Efficiency: Use Cases in Electricity
Sector Planning and Programs
Conclusions
Q&A
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What is time-sensitive value of energy efficiency?
Time-sensitive value of
energy efficiency (TSV-EE)
considers when energy
efficiency occurs and the
economic value of the
energy or demand savings
to the electricity system at
that time.
Sources: Navigant MA
Baseline Load Shape
Study, LBNL analysis
using ISO-NE 2018
LMP data
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ERCOT: Monday, July 23, 2018
ERCOT Hub Average
Settlement Price peaked
at $2061.56/MWh (4-5
pm)
ERCOT daily peak was 72,994
MW (4-5 pm)
The most valuable savings occur
between 4-5 pm
Source: ERCOT system, ERCOT price, Texas air-conditioning load shape
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ERCOT: Monday, 12/10/2018
ERCOT daily peak
was 51,934 MW
(8-9 am)
ERCOT Hub Average
Settlement Price peaked
at $117.99/MWh (7-8 am)
The most valuable savings occur
between 7-8 am
Source: ERCOT system, ERCOT price, Pacific Northwest heat pump load shape
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Motivation for using time-sensitive value of efficiency
Increased interest in how efficiency can provide value to
the electricity system as it changes due to increased
adoption of DERs & smart/connected equipment,
technology cost reductions, and generation retirements
emerge
Determining the time-sensitive value of efficiency will
help utilities and governmental decision makers craft
efficiency plans and programs that better target
efficiency activities to where they are most
valuable…thus helping cost-effectively implement a
reliable, low-cost electricity system, integrate
renewables, etc.
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Interactions with building occupants
Occupant Preferences
• Interoperable, integrated
systems
• Continuously optimized
operation for maximum
comfort and efficiency
• Grid-responsive
Sensor/Occupant Inputs
Control Signal
Utility Communication
Applicable to Other
Technologies, e.g.:
Signal
Utility
HVAC EMS
Lighting Controls
Outdoor
Conditions
August 27, 2019
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Demand flexibility provided by Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings
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Building Technologies Office Grid-interactive Efficient Building portfolio
VALUATION
How do time & the interaction of flexibility options
impact value?
Identify values to stakeholders, quantification of
national value.
OPTIMIZATION
How to maintain or improve services while
optimizing for flexibility
?
Solutions that meet grid operator & building
occupant needs.
TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS
Which end use technologies provide solutions to
specific grid needs?
Prioritize technologies / solutions based on grid
services.
VALIDATION
Do technologies perform as predicted and meet grid
& occupant needs?
Verification of technologies / strategies, increasing
confidence in the value of energy flexibility.
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Overview of prior time-sensitive value of
energy efficiency research by LBNL
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Recent time-sensitive value of efficiency publications by LBNL
June 2017 technical report supported by DOE’s
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
- Building Technologies Office
April 2018 technical brief supported by
DOE’s Office of Electricity – Transmission
Permitting and Technical Assistance
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The 2017 and 2018 studies used the same
approach to calculate TSV-EE
Provide background for the studies by summarizing existing analyses that
quantify benefits of electric efficiency measures and programs during peak
demand and high electricity prices.
Use publicly available avoided costs and end-use load shapes from state or
regional sources.
Document time-varying energy and demand impacts of 5 measures in 5
locations:
Measures
Exit sign (flat load shape)
Commercial lighting
Residential lighting
Residential water heater
Residential air conditioning
State/Region
Pacific Northwest
California
Massachusetts
Georgia
Michigan
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Annual system load shapes
*CE/DTE is Consumers Energy and DTE Energy, utilities in Michigan
*
*
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Pacific Northwest time-sensitive value by load shape
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Results: Total utility system value of savings compared to only their energy value
Notes: The flat load shape is an exit sign. Energy value includes: energy, risk, carbon dioxide emissions, avoided RPS and DRIPE, as
applicable if reported. Total time-varying value includes all energy values and capacity, transmission, distribution and spinning reserves.
Ratios are calculated by dividing total time-varying values by energy-only values.
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NEW
Berkeley Lab TSV-EE study
Energy efficiency
planning
Distribution
planning
Resource
planning
Rate design
State activities
Time-Sensitive Value of Efficiency: Use Cases in Electricity
Sector Planning and Programs
Study identifies 5 use cases that consider the time-sensitive
value of efficiency
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Benefit-cost analysis: CPUC Avoided Cost Model
California Avoided Cost Calculator Output for Climate Zone 4 (hot and dry)
2019 and 2024
The stacked bar charts are comprised of components of publicly available avoided costs in California. This chart was
made by E3 for the California Public Utilities Commission.
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Energy efficiency program planning: Xcel Energy
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Electric reheat
coils: cost
savings improve
in future
Heat pump/variable refrigerant flow
heating: cost savings and carbon
reductions improve in future
Electric solar
water heat
storage: carbon
increases today
and in future
Reduced
lighting power
density: cost
and carbon
savings exist
today and in
future
Source: Chris Baker, Willdan
Customer savings
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Energy efficiency program design: Oncor
TSV-EE Application: Several utilities in Texas, including Oncor, provide energy
efficiency program incentives for both energy and peak demand savings.
Peak demand reductions are calculated for each utility using methodologies
described in the statewide
technical reference manual.
Description Measure Life $/kW for On
Peak Demand
Reduction
$/kWh for Annual
Energy Reduction
Air Cooled Chiller 25 $387.81 $0.125
LED 15 $209.21 $0.057
Energy Star Commercial
Dishwasher
11 $193.11 $0.054
Hot Food Holding Cabinet 12 $164.21 $0.041
Zero Energy Doors for
Refrigerated Cases
12 $123.16 $0.025
Lodging Guest Room Occupancy
Sensors
10 $86.51 $0.022
Refrigeration Evaporator Fan
Controls
16 $49.57 $0.010
Vending Machine Controls 5 $20.64 $0.021
Pre-Rinse Spray Valves (Food
Service)
5 $12.38 $0.004
Select Incentives for Oncor 2019 Commercial Standard Offer Program
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Non-wires alternatives: Pacific Power and Energy Trust of Oregon
Energy Trust of Oregon and PacifiCorp partnered to implement a time
and location-specific energy efficiency pilot
With a goal to develop and implement a learning pilot focused on
bringing additional value to the grid through the quick deployment of
existing energy efficiency resources
Sector
End Use
Annual kWh Summer kW Winter kW Measures Incentives
Residential HVAC 99,071 7.2 16.9 49 $37,281
Residential Water Heating 32,959 3.3 6.0 223 $1,336
Residential Lighting 9,636 1.1 1.3 102 $3,317
Residential Miscellaneous 468,822 78.2 62.4 12 $3,878
Commercial HVAC 0 0.0 0.0 0 $0
Commercial Water Heating 0 0.0 0.0 0 $0
Commercial Lighting 2,984,616 404.9 409.2 91 $508,261
Commercial Cooking 0 0.0 0.0 0 $0
Commercial Refrigeration 1,259,439 272.5 127.8 15 $297,706
Commercial Miscellaneous 0 0.0 0.0 0 $0
Industrial Miscellaneous 1,597,389 179.4 199.1 23 $96,736
Irrigation Miscellaneous 0 0.0 0.0 0 $0
All
All
6,451,932
946.6
822.8
515
$948,515
Note: Results are preliminary and need to be verified
Source: Angela Long, PacifiCorp
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Integrated resource planning: PacifiCorp
TSV-EE Methodology:
PacifiCorp creates
energy efficiency cost
curves using annual
hourly (8,760) load
shapes, which are inputs
to the IRP capacity
expansion model with
all other resources.
Allowing efficiency to
compete with all other
resources creates a
reliable portfolio at least
cost.
PacifiCorp System Summer Capacity Load and
Resource Balance,
2019 IRP
20-year MWh Potential for Class 2 DSM
(efficiency) bundles,
2019 IRP
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Rate design
Utilities have implemented time-based rates to integrate resources such as solar, electric
vehicles, storage and demand response.
Utilities have not typically considered the time-sensitive value of efficiency in rate
design.
Rate design may have a critical impact on DER adoption.
TSV-EE could help identify when efficiency is more or less valuable during designated
rate periods, and use it to inform their procurement strategy or improve value
proposition to customers.
Examples of residential rates that can be used to improve the value proposition of
efficiency:
Default time-of-use rate in California
Default time-of-use rate in Minnesota
Time-of-use rate in Arizona
Real-time-pricing in Illinois
Non-residential customers typically have more time-based rate options, but most do not
have a tariff that sends prices signals to encourage load shaping or shifting.
Most non-residential rate design includes a demand charge
Demand charge is typically for customer non-coincident peak (customer’s highest consumption —
e.g., any 15-minute period in a billing cycle — not utility system peak)
Time-varying value of efficiency could provide insights to customers on how to reduce demand charge
and bill
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State and local government activities
Most electricity system related state and local
government activities could benefit from TSV-EE.
Examples of state and local government activities that
employ TSV-EE are:
Several states require peak demand reduction in energy
efficiency resource standards (Colorado, Illinois, Ohio and
Texas).
Six states provide an opportunity for utilities to earn a financial
incentive for achieving peak demand savings targets (Hawaii,
Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Rhode Island and
Vermont).
California uses time-dependent value in its building energy
code (Title 24).
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Conclusions
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Conclusions
Determining the time-sensitive value of efficiency will help
utilities and state and local decision-makers craft efficiency
plans and programs.
Each of the 5 use cases showcase several examples of how the
time-sensitive value of efficiency can be used for more effective
planning or programs.
There is a growing number of examples of states and utilities
using the time-sensitive value of efficiency to refine or improve
their planning and programs.
States and utilities can start using the time-sensitive value of
efficiency by considering it in any of the use cases discussed
The data granularity that is required for the time-sensitive
value of efficiency will depend on the purpose.
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Select LBNL Resources
Time and locational sensitive value of efficiency
Time-Sensitive Value of Efficiency: Use Cases in Electricity Sector Planning and
Programs
Time-varying value of electric energy efficiency (2017)
Time-varying value of energy efficiency in Michigan (2018)
No Time to Lose: Recent research on the time-sensitive value of efficiency
(webinar)
End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock
Building Technologies Office (BTO) funded project that is a multi-lab
collaboration to create end-use load profiles representing all major end uses,
building types, and climate regions in the U.S. building stock.
End-Use Load Profiles of the U.S. Building Stock: Market Needs, Use Cases and
Data Gaps
End-Use Load Profile Inventory
Electricity Markets and Policy energy efficiency research
Locational Value of Distributed Energy Resources (forthcoming)
Peak Demand Impacts from Electricity Efficiency Programs
Energy Efficiency in Electricity Resource Planning (forthcoming)
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Please use the chat box to send us your
questions and comments any time during the
webinar. You may want to direct your question
to a specific author. We’ll address as many
questions as we can following the presentation.
The recording and webinar slides will be posted
at https://emp.lbl.gov/projects/time-value-
efficiency
Q&A
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Visit our website at: http://emp.lbl.gov/
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Group mailing list and stay up to date on our publications, webinars
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Twitter @BerkeleyLabEMP
Natalie Mims Frick
nfrick@lbl.gov
510-486-7584
Lisa Schwartz
lcschwartz@lbl.gov
510-486-6315
