The US election rematch between President Biden and former President Trump will
focus market attention on their respective agendas. This paper examines the
potential economic and foreign policy changes that could emerge in their second
term, as well as the repercussions for financial markets.
A second Biden term would likely maintain the status quo, but could result in higher
long-term yields, especially given a deterioration in the US fiscal position that
neither party seems eager to address. Trump, on the other hand, would likely
announce dramatic policy shifts, including substantially higher tariffs, the increased
deportation of undocumented immigrants and attempts to dilute the Inflation
Reduction Act (IRA). These changes would constitute a significant supply shock,
and potentially drive inflation and yields higher.
The candidates' foreign policy agendas could lead to a range of outcomes. An
escalation of protectionism, particularly higher tariffs, may provoke retaliation.
The implications of these policies on government financing needs, borrowing costs,
and yields will be crucial for financial markets. While long-term bond yields may
become more volatile, a more concerning development would be persistently
higher-term premia on a secular basis. This is very likely if the public sector balance
sheet continues to deteriorate.
We assess five policy areas based on the candidates’ current comments: foreign
policy, trade, taxes, immigration and energy. While rhetoric may not always
translate into action, stated policies offer valuable insights into the two candidates’
thinking.
Tax policy will be a key issue, with neither candidate proposing a clear path to
US debt sustainability. Trump will prioritise extending his 2017 Tax Cuts and
Jobs Act, while Biden will seek to cut taxes for low-to-middle-income earners
and raise taxes for high-income earners and corporates.
A second term for President Joe Biden will see the US continue to be deeply
involved in geopolitical hotspots, while pressuring allies to share the burden.
Foreign policy under Donald Trump may be less predictable, with intensified
economic sanctions and a less certain commitment to allies.
Biden vs Trump: high stakes in US elections
Immigration remains a politically-charged issue, with both candidates
expected to implement stricter policies, although Trump’s threats to deport
undocumented immigrants will have a strong adverse effect as it will affect
labour supply and wages.
T h e m e s a t a g l a n c e | J u n e 2 0 2 4
MAHMOOD
PRADHAN
HEAD OF MACRO,
AMUNDI INVESTMENT
INSTITUTE
A U T H O R S
ANNA
ROSENBERG
HEAD OF GEOPOLITICS,
AMUNDI INVESTMENT
INSTITUTE
PARESH
UPADHYAYA
DIRECTOR OF FIXED
INCOME AND CURRENCY
STRATEGIES, AMUNDI
Protectionist trade policies would be pursued by both candidates. Biden may
expand the range of targets, while Trump’s desire to protect core US
industries could lead to trade conflicts with allies in Europe and Asia.
Equity markets may perform better under a divided government, as
contentious tax increases and aggressive trade policies are less likely to be
implemented. Both agendas could lead to higher deficits that will push up
debt and Treasury yields.
US energy policy will prioritise self-sufficiency and domestic oil and gas
under Trump, while Biden would continue to support clean energy initiatives.
2
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Table 1: Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy
In terms of foreign policy, under Biden, the US is likely to continue its deep involvement in geopolitical hotspots.
Despite financial and military constraints, Biden's interventionist stance will persist, though he will increase pressure
on allies to share more of the burden. The US aims to focus its foreign policy on the South China Sea and China, but
recent demands for US military support across various hotspots are stretching US resources.
President Biden will likely approach foreign policy with fewer constraints compared to his current term, given that he
does not need to worry as much about re-election. This shift could lead to a more confrontational stance in certain
areas.
In the Middle East, support for Israel will persist, even though the stance of Israel’s government could make this
increasingly difficult. There are many downside risks that another Biden administration could face. Despite intense
diplomatic efforts to keep the crisis geographically contained, an escalation between Israel and Lebanon, as well as
between Israel and Iran, still remains likely and both could end up drawing in the US directly.
While the US under Biden will continue to support Ukraine, there is an expected decrease in direct financial support
from the US, with increased pressure on Europe to take on more responsibility, such as using windfall profits from
frozen Russian assets. There is still significant European opposition to US proposals to raise official and market
funding based on the expected long-term interest income on these assets. Any such measure would only become
more likely should the heavy lifting of financing Ukraine shift to Europe because the US stops its support – a prospect
that would be more likely under a Trump administration.
Under Trump, geopolitical risks are likely to increase as trade restrictions for both allies and adversaries will intensify
the scale and scope of economic sanctions and export controls, heightening the economic frictions already playing
out, and escalating protectionism and retaliation.
Continuation
of the status quo: interventionist stance will persist; somewhat higher
risk
appetite
. The main focus will remain on China, containing its technological advancement
in
critical
areas such as semiconductors, AI and biotech, with an emphasis on aligning
allies
with
US policies.
Additional
trade tariffs will add another layer of geopolitics: likely less
preferential
treatment
for allies.
BIDEN
TRUMP
Figure 1: Change in Real Defence Spending by NATO Countries 2023 vs 2018
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Per cent Change
Source: NATO, Amundi Investment Institute May 2024
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Overall, US foreign policy would be much less predictable. Trump’s deal-cutting approach could either amplify or
mitigate risks. For example, on Ukraine: Trump could push Ukraine and Russia into accepting a ceasefire, which
could bring Russia once again closer to the US and weaken China-Russia ties. On the flipside, he could also double
down on support for Ukraine.
Beyond trade, allies will feel less secure under Trump: It is legally difficult for the US to actually pull out of NATO as it
now requires congressional approval to do so. Nevertheless, if the US president does not want to defend an ally, it is
irrelevant whether the US is a NATO member or not – no one can force the US president to protect an ally. However,
Donald Trump is not anti-NATO per se. His comments have mainly been about ending the protection of NATO
members who don’t pay their ‘fair share’ (of 2% of GDP).
By the time Trump comes into office, the NATO members most at risk will have increased spending to that minimum
level in anticipation of a Trump presidency and reflecting the growing security risk. Even though European NATO
members are now reaching that minimum spending level, this follows years of underinvestment, leaving an estimated
shortfall of EUR 56 billion.
Source: United States Census Bureau, Amundi Investment Institute May 2024
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Millions
China Imports Mexico Imports
“If the US president does not want to defend an ally, it is irrelevant
whether the US is a NATO member or not – no one can force the US president to
protect an ally.”
Taiwan will feel less secure too as Trump could swing from refusing to protect the island altogether towards making
any security contingent on Taiwan stepping up the diversification of semiconductor production to the US.
Governments keen to undermine US power in the world will likely test the US’s resolve to protect allies under a
Trump presidency. Tensions are likely to increase in the South China Sea as China tests how far it can go before
provoking a US response. As the US under Biden has worked hard to improve relations between South Korea and
Japan as an alliance that can stand up to China, such an alliance is likely to feel somewhat less stable under a Trump
presidency.
Trump’s failure to protect and react to Iran’s attack on Saudi Arabia in 2019 and his rhetoric on various geopolitical
hot spots today, will make US allies uncomfortable in solely relying on US security backing. This means more
countries are looking for new security buffers. Good examples are Saudi Arabi’s improvement of ties with Iran in
2023, as well as countries in the Indo-Pacific, which are moving fast to step up their joint security cooperation, such
as Japan, Australia and the Philippines.
Figure 2: China vs Mexico Imports to US
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Table 2: Trade
During Trump’s first term, the US adopted an activist protectionist policy, exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
and transforming the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into the United States-Mexico-Canada
Agreement (USMCA); Trump targeted China and allies alike with these measures. However, during Biden’s first term,
the US maintained Trump's tariffs on China and expanded selective protectionism with additional measures that
prevent China from accessing high technology from the West. Both candidates will likely continue with protectionist
policies to varying degrees.
Biden’s re-election would likely maintain the status quo with a targeted expansion of protectionist industrial policies.
We anticipate no major changes to the existing tariff system and Biden might renegotiate the USMCA to include
protections on labour and environmental issues. With no material change in direction (with the exception of more
protectionism against China) we would not expect any significant economic impacts.
Trump’s comments and the book ‘No Trade is Free’ by his former trade advisor Robert Lighthizer, serve as guidance
for his likely trade policy. Trade policy is likely to range from ideological to pragmatic choices:
On the more ideological spectrum are policy ideas such as repealing China’s Most Favored Nation trade status, trying
to completely eliminate the US’s dependence on China by phasing out all Chinese imports of essential goods or
implementing 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports. On the more pragmatic spectrum are tariff structures that would be
revised annually for certain goods and Trump could use unilateral authority to exempt whatever countries he chooses
from import tariffs.
Trade conflicts will arise with allies in Europe and Asia as the US under Trump would seek to reduce its trade deficit.
Any industry considered a core US interest could be threatened, as witnessed with steel tariffs on Japan and Europe
in the past administration. Tariffs on aluminium and car imports are also possible.
Nevertheless, it is important to keep in mind that policy does not occur in limbo and any measure that Trump
implements will have a reaction and a consequence. Countries are now more experienced in reacting to punitive trade
measures. Additionally, countermeasures will have an impact on the US economy and can also affect the stock
market performance – a measure Trump cares about deeply.
Trade
• Israel
• Jordan
• S Korea
• Mexico
• Morocco
• Nicaragua
• Oman
• Panama
• Peru
• Singapore
20
The United States
currently has Free
Trade Agreements with
twenty countries.
• Australia
• Bahrain
• Canada
• Chile
• Colombia
• Costa Rica
• Dominican Rep.
• El Salvador
• Guatemala
• Honduras
40%
About forty per cent of
US goods exports are
with FTA countries.
Continuation
of the status quo: Targeted expansion of protectionist industrial
policy,
renegotiation
of United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026 and more curbs
on
Chinese
access to the US market and restrictions on tech exports to China
Trade
protection: Ideas floated include a universal 10% tariff on imported goods
and
reciprocal
tariffs on countries imposing tariffs on the US. End permanent normal
trade
relations
status for China and/or 60% higher tariffs. Incrementally increase tariffs
on
countries
that are considered to manipulate exchange rates or engage in unfair
trade
practices
.
BIDEN
TRUMP
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Table 3: Taxes
Taxes
One of the key pillars of Trump’s first term was the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in 2017. During
Biden’s first term, significant achievements included the Child Tax Credit and various investment incentives in the
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Looking ahead to their potential second terms, neither candidate has proposed a plan to put the US on a path of debt
sustainability. Budget deficits are expected to remain structurally high, likely exceeding 6% and continuing an upward
trajectory over the next decade, with the debt-to-GDP ratio forecast to rise above 100%. Two major fiscal challenges
loom in 2025: reaching the debt limit in the first quarter and the expiration of the TJCA in December. Extending the
TCJA could add approximately $3.5 trillion to the US deficit over 10 years.
Tax policy is poised to be a central fiscal issue for both candidates. Trump is likely to prioritise extending the TCJA,
reducing the corporate tax rate, and repealing the IRA’s green credits. Biden has released a more detailed budget
proposal that aims to extend the tax cuts for the low-to-middle-income earners while raising taxes for those making
more than $400,000 and increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Biden’s plan would reduce the net deficit by $3.3
trillion through 2034, with debt-to-GDP projected to rise from 97% at the end of FY 2023 to nearly 106% by 2034.
Without a comparable budget proposal from Trump, it’s difficult to assess his plans, but a similar rise in debt-to-GDP
can be anticipated.
•
Extension of middle-class tax cuts: Raise taxes on high-income earners – those
making
more than $400k. Enact income tax of 25% individual minimum tax on households with
wealth
of $100 million or greater. Restore Child Tax Credit and introduce a first-time home buyers
tax
credit of $10,000 over two years.
•
Raise corporate taxes from 21% to 28% and implement the international agreement to set
a
worldwide 21% corporate minimum tax. Raise the excise tax on corporate stock
buybacks
from 1% to 4%.
•
Extension of Trump Tax cuts: Fully extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and
cut
corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%.
•
Repeal certain tax aspects of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, such as the 15%
minimum
book tax and 1% share repurchase tax. Repeal green credits such as the electric
vehicle
credit, which are seen to benefit China.
Figure 3: Average Budget Deficits Relative to GDP Under US Administration Since 1990
Source: Statista, CBO, Amundi Investment Institute 2024
0,0
0,0
-4,2
1,0
1,0
-1,9
-10,0
0,8
-0,4
-1,0
-0,9
-1,6
-3,6
-2,5
-4,4
-4,3
-0,1
-3,4
-5,6
-6,6
-8,6
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
% of GDP
BIDEN
TRUMP
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•
Increase Enforcement: Work with Latin American governments to try and stem flow
of
immigration.
•
Increase Enforcement: End ‘catch and release,’ restore ‘Transit Ban Rule’ and
make
asylum more difficult. Use the National Guard and local law enforcement to
enforce
immigration laws. Restrict work permits and social services for unauthorised immigrants
.
Revoke temporary protected status for immigrants from select countries. Reinstate Title 42
,
which expels people from countries with communicable diseases, on the southern border.
•
Implement a merit-based immigration system.
Table 4: Immigration
Immigration
Both candidates have committed to tightening immigration controls. A key difference is Trump’s pledge to deport
undocumented immigrants, which could significantly impact labour supply and increase wage pressures. We believe
the recent surge in immigration has driven faster population growth, adding to the labour supply, increasing
consumption, and impacting state and local government spending, thereby contributing to stronger economic growth.
We expect this trend to continue as long as immigration remains above historical averages.
During Trump's first term immigration policies were tightened with enhanced security measures along the US-Mexico
border, including increased border security personnel and barriers. In contrast, Biden's first term saw relaxed
immigration rules through an executive order that reinstated an Obama-era policy granting asylum to migrants fleeing
domestic or gang violence, resulting in a surge in both illegal and legal immigration
Immigration has become a pivotal and controversial issue in the 2024 election. Both candidates are expected to
implement stricter policies. Trump's proposed measures include ending asylum and reinstating the "Remain in
Mexico" policy from his first term. Under Biden, policies are also expected to become stricter, likely ending asylum
and continuing outreach to Latin American countries to control the flow of immigrants, reflecting the heightened
political focus on this issue.
Figure 4: Net Immigration
The Congressional Budget Office
(CBO) estimates that net immigration
rose by 2.6 million in 2022 and 3.3
million in 2023, conservatively totalling
5.9 million during Biden's tenure, with
other estimates reaching as high as 7
million.
The CBO states that “The decline in
net immigration between 2024 and
2026 may stem from changes in
decisions by other foreign nationals to
enter or leave the United States,
changes in actions by the
Administration or immigration judges,
or a combination of those changes.”
“A key difference is Trump’s pledge to deport undocumented immigrants, which
could significantly impact labour supply and increase wage pressures.”
Source: CBO, BEA, measuringworth.com, Amundi Investment Institute
BIDEN
TRUMP
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Table 5: Energy
•
Supporting Alternative Energy: Leverage Department of Education loan programmes
for
battery material supply chain, advanced nuclear energy and industrial decarbonisation
.
Augment electric vehicle battery chain.
•
Energy Exports & Distribution: Refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and
rescind
energy regulations such as car fuel and emissions standards. Streamline
energy
exploration on government land.
•
Exit Paris Climate Accords. Ban ESG investments through executive order and work
with
Congress for a permanent ban.
Under either candidate, US energy policy is expected to emphasise self-sufficiency and encourage domestic oil and
gas production. A second Trump term would likely focus on expanding energy exploration, exports and distribution,
while the re-election of Biden would continue to prioritise clean energy initiatives.
During Trump's first term, the administration focused on increasing US production to reduce dependency on imported
energy through an 'America First' policy. This included supporting energy development on public lands and approving
major projects like the Dakota Access and Keystone pipelines.
Conversely, Biden's presidency has centred on the clean energy aspects of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which
has become a cornerstone of his administration. The IRA aims to lower renewable energy costs for consumers and
businesses and includes rebates for home energy efficiency and electrification projects. However, less publicised,
Biden has also supported an increase in traditional energy production, such as oil and gas.
Congress will determine what either President can implement
Both presidential candidates can implement policies through Congressional approval or executive orders. When the
same party controls the executive branch and both chambers of Congress, policies can be enacted via budget
reconciliation – a method allowing legislation related to budget issues, like government spending or revenues, to pass
with only 50 Senate votes and without being subject to a filibuster. This approach enabled the passage of key
legislation such as Trump's TCJA in 2017 and Biden’s IRA in 2022.
Under a divided government, the president may resort to issuing executive orders, which are directives managing
government operations without needing Congressional approval. However, these orders are limited to the president's
constitutional powers and can be overturned by the courts, a veto-proof congressional vote or a subsequent
president. A congressional sweep by either party would likely enable the implementation of either President’s full
agenda. A divided government would mean Trump might use budget reconciliation to enact his policies, while Biden
would likely rely on executive orders for a more restricted set of non-budgetary policies.
218
The House of
Representatives may
send a bill to the
Senate with a simple
majority (218 of 435).
51
Senate passes the bill
with a simple majority of
51 of 100.
10 2/3
President then has 10
days to sign or veto the
enrolled bill.
If the President vetoes a
bill, Congress may
override the veto by a
two-thirds supermajority
of both houses.
Energy
BIDEN
TRUMP
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Financial Market Implications
Equities
If a Republican sweep occurs, we anticipate a short-term rally in equities driven by the
prospect of another tax reform, particularly if it includes a cut in the corporate tax rate.
Trump's proposed tax deductions for small businesses could particularly benefit small-
cap stocks, while an increase in defence and energy spending might boost related
sectors. However, repealing the IRA’s green energy credits could negatively impact
green energy firms. The wild card for equity markets would be that Trump’s
implementation of a more aggressive trade policy would likely be negative.
Conversely, a Democratic sweep might pressure equities due to potential increases in
corporate taxes, a higher excise tax on corporate share buybacks, increased taxes on
high-income earners and the introduction of a wealth tax. Biden’s continuation of the
Build Back Better agenda could lead to outperformance in infrastructure, construction
and green energy sectors, while technology and traditional energy sectors might lag.
Currently, market expectations favour a divided government, which typically benefits
equities. Historically, equity markets have responded positively to divided governments,
as contentious measures like tax increases and significant tariff hikes are less likely to
be implemented.
Fixed Income
US yields will be determined primarily by the trajectory of US debt, which many currently
view as unsustainable. Whichever party is in office will at some stage have to come up
with a credible adjustment plan to assure markets that government funding requirements
will be manageable. Any procrastination on a belief that higher productivity and higher
growth will reduce the debt burden on a sustained basis will only delay the inevitable.
One important market implication is higher term premia as investors increasingly
demand a premium for holding longer-maturity debt.
At the margin, based on announced policy pledges, the Trump agenda would lead to a
faster deterioration of the public sector balance sheet and higher deficits because of
what appears to be unfunded tax cuts. The Biden agenda seems a little more balanced –
with intentions to increase some taxes, but that will also not be sufficient to stem the rise
in the debt burden absent any significant expenditure cuts.
Beyond the very near-term outlook for lower rates across the yield curve as inflation
continues to decline, yields will be determined by the longer-term debt outlook and
especially next year as a new administration embarks on its policy agenda. Any set of
policies which do not show a longer-term consolidation plan will be vulnerable to ratings
downgrades and market pressures that will, at some stage, force a reckoning. Again, on
balance, the Trump agenda, if enacted as currently indicated, appears more vulnerable
to this risk.
Financial Market Implications
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The long-term status of the US Dollar will continue to hinge on relative interest rate differentials and growth prospects
compared to other major currencies. Despite potential narrowing interest differentials as the Federal Reserve reduces
policy rates, the stronger growth outlook for the US is likely to support the Dollar. In theory, significantly higher tariffs
under a Trump administration could shrink the trade deficit and bolster the Dollar.
However, increased tariffs and the potential for trade wars could heighten trade uncertainty and dampen investor
sentiment towards the US, making investors wary of exposure to US markets and likely increase volatility. If Trump's
main policies – including stringent immigration controls, tax cuts and a rollback of the IRA – are implemented early,
this could lead to higher inflation and longer-term yields, introducing greater uncertainty about the Dollar's trajectory.
The US Dollar’s longer-term status
Although 5
th
November is only six months away, the rematch between President Biden and former President Trump is
still too uncertain to predict. The election may see momentum swing either way, as the race is influenced by several
factors: Trump’s legal issues, third-party candidates, the domestic economic climate, inflation and geopolitical
tensions. The analysis presented in this paper is predicated on the announced agendas of each presumptive
nominee, which are subject to change depending on the election results – even with a unified Congress, a president
may struggle to fulfil their entire agenda.
Conclusion
For example, during Trump’s first term, despite promising to revive coal and steel jobs, the US saw a 10% reduction in
coal jobs due to his tariffs (according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). This time, Trump could face
difficulties in completely repealing the IRA, making minor adjustments more likely. And pursuing higher trade tariffs
could risk retaliation, as seen during his first presidency when tariffs led to a trade war with China, ultimately
financially impacting US businesses and households.
Neither candidate has proposed a path to steer the US towards debt sustainability, as budget deficits are expected to
remain high with debt-to-GDP poised to exceed the post-WWII peak of 106%. Yet these are the realities that the next
administration will have to deal with, as social security is projected to become insolvent in ten years and interest
payments are now the third largest budget item, surpassing defence spending. These unresolved structural issues
could increase pressure on short- and long-term interest rates, eventually affecting equity markets.
“These unresolved structural issues could increase pressure on short- and
long-term interest rates, eventually affecting equity markets... ”
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IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This document is solely for informational purposes.
This document does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any security
or any other product or service. Any securities, products, or services referenced may not be registered for sale with the
relevant authority in your jurisdiction and may not be regulated or supervised by any governmental or similar authority in
your jurisdiction.
Any information contained in this document may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any
form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices.
Furthermore, nothing in this document is intended to provide tax, legal, or investment advice.
Unless otherwise stated, all information contained in this document is from Amundi Asset Management SAS and is as of 14
December 2023. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. This document is provided on an “as
is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Historical data and
analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The
views expressed regarding market and economic trends are those of the author and not necessarily Amundi Asset
Management SAS and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and there can be no
assurance that countries, markets or sectors will perform as expected. These views should not be relied upon as
investment advice, a security recommendation, or as an indication of trading for any Amundi product. Investment involves
risks, including market, political, liquidity and currency risks.
Furthermore, in no event shall any person involved in the production of this document have any liability for any direct, indirect, special,
incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages.
Date of first use: 7 June 2024.
Document issued by Amundi Asset Management, “société par actions simplifiée”- SAS with a capital of €1,143,615,555 - Portfolio
manager regulated by the AMF under number GP04000036 – Head office: 90-93 boulevard Pasteur – 75015 Paris – France – 437
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